Live-blogging for the Texas caucus begins better late than never. So who won the Texas caucus? Does Hillary Clinton have any chance at all, or is Barack Obama going to use his superior organization, money, and enthusiasm to put butts in the seats.
The Texas caucus is like a wart on a beautiful virgin. She gets all the attention, but the caucus is what is now bugging everyone. Why Texas would organize themselves this way is beyond reason. Republicans who voted in the Democrat primary are eligible in the Democrat caucus. People who spent the time voting now have to caucus. Two votes in one day. Crazy, man.
Lawsuits from Hillary Clinton are threatened because of irregularities in the voting.
Please discuss and we will post the updates as usual.
Meanwhile read the Obama primer on the Texas caucus.
Note that we already called Hillary Clinton the winner of the primary. You can visit that thread from the homepage at rightpundits.com
Results are below.
Texas Caucus results and winners:
Update 12.25am – Obama up with 55% with 5% counted in the caucuses.
Update 12.38am – listen to firsthand account from the train-wreck in Texas. (note: far left blog but the blogger there is awfully cute.)
Update 1.35am – results are rolling in slowly. Obama has an 8 point lead with about 15% counted. Interesting because Obama was expected to have a wider margin. It isn’t happening. Right Pundits predicts now that Obama wins the Texas caucus, which is not a surprise or earth shattering. But he was expected to win bigger.
2am – More information at our favorite lefty site. Read about Hillary Clinton’s legal challenges here.
10am (March 5th) – Precinct by precinct results are here.
March 4th, 2008 at 9:16 pm
Politico has Clinton ahead by 55,000 votes with 63% reporting.
March 4th, 2008 at 9:21 pm
The caucus is not a walk for Obama based on the primary results. She’s up almost 3% now and the only place Obama can get more votes is Harris county and some big SW counties are only half in and are going over 70% Hilary. She could win the primary by 8 to 10%.
Despite past failures it looks like Bilary is on the ground working it for the caucus. She could take that too. Delegates are what is really most important but Obama loses a caucus too, which has been his strength, then it’s not good news and this thing goes to the convention.
PA is Hilary’s now for sure,
A vigorous campaign could be good for the Dems but not if Jesse and Al start protests in the streets of Denver. The DNC must be really glad they didn’t pick LA, Chicago or NYC for the convention now.
March 4th, 2008 at 9:22 pm
Bob, we already called Texas for Hillary in our other threadv (two hours ago!). You can find that thread from the homepage.
Examining the caucus mess now…
March 4th, 2008 at 9:22 pm
That is about what everyone is showing.
March 4th, 2008 at 9:39 pm
CB, you have any inside data there or sources. I’m trying to catch up.
March 4th, 2008 at 9:43 pm
Well 8-10% is unrealistic for the primary but Bilary could get to 5%. Obama should thank God for early voting though, if that had been even he would be getting spanked as bad in Texas as he is in Ohio.
If Obama does win the caucus it will be by the skin of his teeth I think or some serious messing around. Caucuses are the single most corrupt way to vote there is I think.
March 4th, 2008 at 9:52 pm
At this point in the night it would be hard for me to get any kind of information. I will send a text, and see if I can drum up anything from a couple of people.
I know earlier in the day the same people that were optimistic about her performance in Texas today thought that she would do better than expected in the caucus as well.
If you look at a map of the state it was an incredible night for Clinton. East Texas was a surprise to me, and I think that in the outskirts of Harris County you will find Clinton perform well at those caucus sites/precincts.
I think Texas may end up being bigger for her than many thought, but so much is yet to be seen.
March 4th, 2008 at 9:57 pm
I do think Obama will win the caucus.
March 4th, 2008 at 10:04 pm
Any concrete numbers on the caucus? Even anecdotes? BTW, this caucus might be the worst idea in the history of democratic politics. What a freaking nightmare…
March 4th, 2008 at 10:22 pm
Is Texas the new Florida or what?
How stupid is it going to look when they approach 3 million votes in the primary and have less than 100,000 votes in the caucus but yet the caucus counts for 1/3 of the total delegates awarded.
1500 people in the caucus will have the same voting power as 24000 in the primary.
Wow….
March 4th, 2008 at 10:52 pm
This is truly a travesty. Ultimately, it’s an argument for Clinton come convention time, as neither will have the delegates to win the election.
March 4th, 2008 at 11:12 pm
The idea that TX or OH Democrats over 65, who are people basically waiting to die and have nothing better to do than act as electoral subversives, can overturn the will of young voters who have nothing but their future ahead is crazy…
March 4th, 2008 at 11:12 pm
Just ignore Jake. He’s just making blind accusations. So, I take the silence here to mean that there is no info regarding the caucuses. Oh well. Whatever. In the end, the headlines are written for tomorrow’s papers and the caucuses will just be a footnote anyway. The Democrats really need to rethink the whole process for 2012.
March 4th, 2008 at 11:16 pm
ignatiusreilly, we already called the caucus for Obama. He will win by about 8 points. Not sure what that means for delgates, but it is closer than expected,
March 4th, 2008 at 11:23 pm
Incorrect. She talked volumes about it by not denying it outright You’re right, who cares who is and isn’t a Muslim? People like you do, McCain.
March 4th, 2008 at 11:30 pm
How would she know the answer to deny it? Obama’s religious heritage is not up to Hillary to proclaim. Ask him if you care so much.
March 4th, 2008 at 11:39 pm
Then why didn’t she just say that?
March 5th, 2008 at 12:23 am
I will put my two-cents worth in here. When I ran for office, I let everyone know up front I was a Methodist, and was fairly strong in my Christian beliefs, which doesn’t actually play well in my area. Nonetheless, people deserve to know what backgroud you have and that you level with them, regardless of your beliefs.
There is so much about Obama that is unknown and I just have this creeping feeling that he isn’t being honest about his past. Perhaps he is more concerned about it than the American public would be.
I have a good friend that is Muslim. We have prayed together about personal issues and he calls me, “sister,” a title I care more deeply about than my own title. I would vote for him in a heart-beat. He is devout, has a strong moral compass, is deeply thankful for the freedoms he enjoys in this country and totally rejects all the radicals.
I don’t care about Obama’s religion, unless he isn’t honest about it. Yes, he’s a member of a UCC Church (not baptised? that is a new one on me. You can’t be a member of a congregation and not be baptised – I suspect this information may not be correct). If he has a Muslim childhood, so be it. We like converts!
He should just openly talk about it and not try to run from it – it make people suspicious. BTW – he looked good in Somali robes!
March 5th, 2008 at 3:46 am
Its funny that people are complaining about the process. These are rules set up by Democrats far in advance. If it was a concern of the Democrats, it should have been raised before.
I’m tired of these liberals complaining about MI and FL, and this caucus after the fact.
BTW – they stopped counting after 5% of the vote.
From the TX primary – it appears that Hillary gained only a net of 3 delegates. I warned you to watch out for the caucus.
Her net gain over Obama after Super Tuesday II could be as tiny as 6 to 20 net delegates.
March 5th, 2008 at 4:16 am
So far, here’s my summation of the Delegate Math (as of this early AM my time):
Ohio 12 net delegates for Hillary
RI – 5 net delegates for Hillary
VT – 3 net delegates for Obama
TX (Primary) – 2 net delegates for Hillary.
TX (Caucus)- Incomplete only 36% of the results are in…
So, Hillary has a net gain of 16 delegates, excluding the results of the TX Caucus.
March 5th, 2008 at 6:24 am
Texas a firewall for Hillary? Yes, the media will spin her as the comeback kid, but her end margin of victory was 3%. Some here were predicting an 8%-10% victory, that I knew wasn’t going to happen. He’ll win the caucus and the nomination. Just do the math people, she could win every single delegate (100%) to Obama (0%) and still not have enough for the nomination. Her only hope is to win the nomination through backdoor deals.
I went to bed and she had a 17% lead in OH that was whittled down to 10%. Wyoming, NC, and MS are next and Obama may find himself on another mini-winning streak. The Democrats are not as political savvy as the Republicans, but if they were smart, they would end this thing quickly.
March 5th, 2008 at 7:07 am
^Pennsylvania is before NC.
And the problem with your logic is, he could win every single contest left, and also not have enough delegates for the nomination. Super Deligates WILL determine the democratic nominee this time…that is now a given. Maybe we don’t like the system, but thats the system in place.
Now the question becomes, how should the Super Deligates vote.
Should they vote for who they feel will be the best candidate?
Should they vote for who won the popular vote in their state?
Should they vote for who won the popular vote among democrats in their state?
Should they vote for who won the delegate vote in their state?
Should they vote for who won the popular vote in their district?
Should they vote for who won the popular vote among democrats in their district?
Should they vote for who has one the most overall votes in the election?
If so, should they take the voters in Michigan and Florida into account?
Should they vote for who has the most overall democratic votes in the election?
Should they vote for who has the momentum going into the
convention, and therefore better positioned for the fall?
Should they vote for who has won the more important states?
All are valid and respectable logics on which way to vote…which is why this is SO hard to figure out at this point.
March 5th, 2008 at 8:20 am
Maybe they should vote for McCain.
March 5th, 2008 at 8:57 am
Lala – good points – all of them. And it points to the problem with the system. It also points to what you suggest – everyone will choose their own version out of your list, or a combination of them. Perhaps your list should be given to them; they can then use your list to prioritize their vote.
It also points to a HUGE problem for the Democrats: any one of them will yield a significant amount of folks that will feel the election was rigged.
March 5th, 2008 at 9:01 am
According to Al-AP, Obama wins the TX Caucus (no surprise). He nets 3 delegates.
According to AL-AP, there are still a dozen or so delegates to be awarded.