Right Pundits

Most crossovers here in Texas are voting for Hillary. I actually talked to a few people today that have either already done it in early voting, or they are planning on it tomorrow.

There’s an interesting aspect to Texas, delagates were assigned based on how districts voted in 2004, so the areas where Kerry did well have more delegates than the areas where Bush did well. That translates into predominantly black areas (bush took about half the hispanic votes in 2004).

So even if Clinton wins the popular vote, she’ll have a very difficult time taking the majority of delegates.

Anyone that believes that voting for HIllary is a vote for McCain is seriously sipping the kool-aid. Do you republicans want another Clinton administration?? I mean seriously….. The country may well vote her in over McCain come November so I would SERIOUSLY reevaluate my vote if I were you!!!!

According to FNC – Obama had a 100,000 vote lead in the early voting in TX. It will be up to the ground game, but if recent polling is correct, Obama may lose.

Yes, why would we want empoyment rates to go up and have a surplus instead of a deficit. What idiots we must be to want another Clinton in the white house!

Obama will win Texas by at least 8%.

According to FNC infobabe on Greta’s show right now ispredicting a Hillary win…

Uh I think JAnet, you want EMPLOYMENT RATES to go UP. You do not want UNEMPLOYMENT RATES to go Up.

According to Insider Advantage, Clinton was way ahead in early voting:

“Moreover, in an entirely separate survey that we conducted of early voters, Clinton led by a 55%-to-43% margin.”

I don’t know if Insider Advantage is accurate, however.

Can the people who say that Obama won early voting please post sources so we can compare?

Thanks, Anon!

I voted today here in Texas.

The weather is amazing here, and there are a ton of voters. I live in the suburbs of Houston, and I just have to say about 2-3 days ago you just felt a swing to Clinton. I don’t know if it was the 3am ad or what, but I think she may end up winning Texas.

I know a ton of Republicans who are crossing over to vote for Hillary, and it just might be the difference. For some reason the national media seems to think these people are voting for Obama, but nothing could be further from the truth. They said there was no hard numbers yet on the early voting here in Texas, but they thought it would end up being about 8% of the early voters were crossovers to the Democrats. If this is true I think that Hillary is going to win by a decent margin.

She should run strong in South Texas, West Texas, the suburbs of Houston, and the same could be said for the areas surrounding Dallas. Most of these areas tend to be very conservative, and have a lot of Blue Dog Democrats. I just don’t see Obama running that well in these areas. Austin will be big for Obama. If it doesn’t go big for Obama I don’t see how he wins Texas. The rural areas will all go to Hillary.

Remember that Bill ran well in Texas, and that was especially true in 1996. I just get a feel from the Texas Democrats that they aren’t ready for this thing to be over.

The momentum seems to be behind Hillary right now. Also, Dan Rather has a very good beat for what happens in Texas, and he seemed to feel much of the same way this morning on Morning Joe. The only thing he really said was that Hillary had gained some momentum. I think/get the feeling she is going to have a big night tonight.

Obama will carry inner city Houston and Dallas, and look how he does out in East Texas. If those areas are closer than expected it will be a long night for Obama. Harris County will be huge. That is the most populated county in Texas, and it includes Houston and much of the greater Houston area. I think many are expecting Obama to carry this, but the difference may be the surrounding areas of Houston.

He has cut into her numbers with the latino vote-roughly 10%.

I just read your live blogging, and could not disagree more with the report you got from the south part of Houston. First, I am pretty in tune with a lot that happens in this area, and if I am being honest this is the first time I have heard of this defeat Hillary now.

The truth is that most Texans feel like a Democrat is going to win the nomination, and are much more comfortable with her than Obama. That is a fact here in Texas. Again look at the love Clinton got from Texans. It isn’t McCain voters as much as people want to say this. In fact a large group that I know doing it and that will caucus tonight are young voters, and most have said they will not vote for McCain or Clinton in the general.

What people in Texas are doing is hedging their bet. Obama could be a disaster for the Republican party, and could leave the Dems in power for quite sometime. Hillary would most likely be a 1 term President, and no one understands triangulation like the Clintons. They are ruled by polls, and so the Republicans will have some victories under a Clinton administration. McCain has done nothing to motivate them, and most feel like he doesn’t have a shot in the general.

So what do you do? You try and put Hillary against McCain in the general. It’s a called winning either way.

He pulls it off in Texas by at least 6%(according to internals) I’m more conservative and think it might be by three but Obama’s camp have conservative guesses as they are the still the underdogs. He’s polling +20 among the latinos under 45 in Texas which is why he is cutting into her base. Ordinary latinos who are not “solid dems” but are more independent, young, and more affluent are voting for him. Also, watch for Ohio. The “muslim” thing, which Barack is ABSOLUTELY NOT,and the NAFTA crap did hurt in OH. He was polling within 2-3% before Canada stepped in which is why he was spending more time there up until two days or so ago. Their confidence in OH has decreased substantially but they think that they can get quite a few delegates and keep Clinton’s count at about +10 to 15. In the words of my source, “it’s all about the delegates, stupid.”

AA’s account for a very small % of the vote in Texas. Harris County is the biggest AA community in the state, and they only make up 18.49% of the population. That is compared to 58.73% white, and trust me when I say many of Texas Democrats have said that if the AA’s want to vote that way they can as well.

Texas is much different than other states. I am not predicting anything, but I do think this may be a huge night for Hillary. Many teachers haven’t voted yet, and here in Texas they are in Hillary’s camp. You keep saying wait for the AA vote, but what about the Blue Dogs that haven’t voted yet? They won’t until about 5-6 p.m. central time.

I think Hillary is going to win clsoe to 10 points. most polls have the Gender Makeup 52% Female, 48% Male. I think that is far to small. Women will make up of 55% or higher today of the vote.

Thom,

I didn’t even know that Limbaugh was saying that until this morning. This was a choice many made to hedge their bet like I have said before. McCain doesn’t ecite them, Obama scares the hell out of them, and they know what they get with the Clintons.

People are doing it for a few reasons. One is thier election isn’t interesting. The second this is that they want to stop Obama because like I said his rhetoric scares the hell out of them. The third thing is that they know what they get with a Clinton. Sure you are going to get some things you don’t like, but you also will get some things you do because they are ruled by polls.

I have heard it more than a few times down here which is people saying you will get the same thing with McCain. McCain doesn’t have a huge base here in Texas. We hated his immigration plan, and we hated how he opposed the Bush tax cuts. He hasn’t done a lot for Texas voters. This is the least excited I have seen Texas Republican voters in a long time, and the reason I think you see so many excited about the chance to vote in a Dem election that matters.

Not only can we influence the vote, but more than that you have a lot of Republicans that won’t say it but they could live with Hillary. Many feel that Obama must be stopped.

I have been seeing in the little info that has hit the web that turnout is lower than expected among inner city blacks and south Texas Latinos.
I don’t think it’s likely that these 2 groups aren’t going to show up. I think they plan to hit the polls late so they are already where they need to be for the precinct conventions.
If that is the scenario then I wouldn’t want to be a poll worker in TX tonite. Those conventions are going to be crazy.

Whites vote earlier in the day. Minorities later if they haven’t voted during the early vote. AA vote was tied with latino vote in early vote in TX.

Watch for Rhode Island tonight as well. Everyone might be in for a HUGE surprise.

Clint, blacks account for 19% of the states voters. Hispanics make up 25%.

I have heard some people say that as many as 1 in 3 Dem voters will be black. I don’t know why these people are writing off the majority. You know the white vote that accounts for so much of Texas. They are a pretty motivated bunch this time around, and I think that many are going to be surprised.

One other thing that no one is mentioning, and I mean barely anyone is that the Hispanic vote is motivated. They have never capitalized on them being a larger voting block than the AA vote. Tonight may be the difference because lost in all of this early voter turnout is that the largest % of Democratic early voters came from Hidalgo County. That is in the Rio Grande valley where the Hispanic vote is.

Texas is so diverse, and so big that it makes it very hard to predict. In Houston you have Fortune 500 companies, and right outside you have farming and ranching. Out in the panhandle you have cotton farmers, and many other things. On the other side of Houston you have the factories, and the workers from those factories. In Central Texas you have technology. South Texas brings in the Hispanic vote, and on and on it goes.

I would take most of what comes out with a grain of salt. The state is just so damn big, and really diverse that each region will tell you something different. What you do know is that Obama has to run well in Houston, Dallas, the Golden Triangle, and East Texas. If he doesn’t run well up I-45 and East of that he won’t win tonight.

anon–

Where are you getting your info? Still feeeling confident about Obama?

anon, most whites in Texas do not vote early in the day on the Democratic side. They show up at night so that they can caucus. It’s pretty simple.

Leave work early, go home and eat, and then go vote and stay at caucus until 8-9.

Texas is different, and you can’t go off of what other states have done. Plus, you don’t have anything to tell you what Texas will do because it has never been included in the process this late. Usually voter turnout is so low, and you have about 15-20 people at these caucus sites. Tonight in places where they have traditionally had 15-20 they are expecting 150-200.

Republicans are listening to Rush Limbaugh and coming out in droves in Texas to try to keep Hillary in the race. The indications are that McCain will have a much easier contest defeating Hillary than Obama in the November election. This “anyone can vote” Texas nonsense is hurting the Democratic party big time.

Remember Katrina? That’s playing a role in AA turnout.

Reports that Obama-people are cheating?!? That’s crazy. I’m hoping (for the sake of democracy), that those reports are isolated. I have a hard time believing that someone who is on an 11-state winning streak and has the advantage would resort to cheating to get a few more votes.

Listen, you guys are missing the point. What happens with the Texas Caucuses is less important than the popular vote. There are plenty of delegates left for Hillary, what she needs is to reverse Barack’s momentum. A win in Texas and Ohio does this nicely and allows her to keep her super delagates. This could be the beginning of the end for Obama!

“Obama cheating” = unsourced rumor and it worst, seems to be the work of a few rogue volunteers. Try to exercise a little journalistic integrity in your post.

After tonight you will have 126 delegates that have been awarded.

126 delegates are “primary-chosen” delegates, allocated based on the results of votes cast on March 4. The 126 delegates that are allocated by the “regular” primary system will be the only ones that Senator Clinton and Senator Obama can add to their tally after March 4. These 126 delegates are divided based on the voting strength of each candidate in the 31 State Senate Districts across Texas.

67 delegates are “caucus-chosen” delegates, allocated at the state convention.

35 “unpledged” or “super” delegates

Here is how the caucus system works:

42 at-Large delegates allocated by the “caucus” system. The allocation of these 42 delegates (by candidate preference) is based on the presidential preference expressed state convention delegates (who are chosen at their precinct and county conventions) when they sign in at the state convention June 6.
Let’s do an example: 100 people attend a precinct convention (which is held 15 minutes after the polls close). 80 of those attending the precinct convention support Obama, and 20 support Clinton. Let’s assume your precinct gets to select 5 delegates to the County Convention. 4 of those Delegates would be “pledged” to Obama, and 1 would be “pledged” to Clinton. Those 5 people go to the County Convention.

At the County Convention, the same process is repeated. Let’s say there are 100 people at the County Convention — these are the 100 delegates that were chosen at all of the precinct conventions around the County. At the County Convention, let’s say 75 are “Obama precinct convention” delegates and 25 are “Clinton precinct convention” delegates. Based on the county strength — the percentage of statewide Democratic votes that came from your county — let’s say your County gets to send 4 delegates to the State Convention. 3 of those delegates would be “pledged” to Obama, and 1 would be “pledged” to Clinton.

The identical process is followed at the State convention. Let’s say 100 delegates go to the State Convention — these are the 100 delegates that were chosen to represent their candidate at the County Convention. Of these 100 delegates at the State Convention, 66 (2/3) vote for Obama and 34 (1/3) vote for Clinton. The 42 at-large delegates are split along this percentage division — so Obama would have an additional 28 delegates (2/3 of 42) attend the DNC Convention, while Clinton would have 14 delegates (1/3 of 42) attend the DNC Convention.

I grossly under-represented the numbers at every convention level for illustrative purposes; if you can follow this logic (and I’ve tried as best I could to help you), you’ll understand the main point: this process awards whichever campaign has the best grassroots effort to get their voters to stay after the polls close and attend the precinct convention. This is truly a process where the numbers build up — and yes, it’s crazy. But we’re Texas — what would we be if we weren’t at least a little crazy.

Also, 25 pledged “super delegates” allocated by the caucus system. The 25 pledged “party delegates” are party leaders, Democratic Mayors and Legislators. They are all allocated along the same lines as the delegates attending the State convention. Using the 2/3 to 1/3 split I described above, 17 of the 25 delegates (2/3) would be for Obama, and 8 delegates (1/3) would be for Clinton. As a note, only a candidate receiving a 15 percent threshold may receive votes.

So at the end this is how it breaks down:

126 “primary-chosen” delegates, allocated based on the results of votes cast on March 4.
42 at-large, “caucus-chosen” delegates that come up through the primary and county convention.
25 pledged “party delegates” allocated by the presidential preference of delegates attending the State convention.
35 unpledged “super delegates”

“3.02 – More on the caucus… remember that ANYONE who voted in the Democrat primary is eligible for the Democrat caucus. Yes, ladies and gentlemen, that means thousands of Republicans attempting to manipulate the election will be eligible if they want to take the time…”

I think that most of the Republicans that voted for Hillary will not go the extra step and caucus for her too.

Nonsense about the Katrina “refugees” not voting for Nagin and nonsense about them not voting in Texas.

C-Lo,

You are right about a lot of them not going to caucus for her, but there will be plenty that do. A couple of my buddies are going to one together, and I assure you will make plenty of noise.

The organization of this was much better than many think, and was kept pretty much underground. It had been brewing long before Rush.

“You are right about a lot of them not going to caucus for her, but there will be plenty that do. A couple of my buddies are going to one together, and I assure you will make plenty of noise.

The organization of this was much better than many think, and was kept pretty much underground. It had been brewing long before Rush.”

I wish I lived in Texas and could vote for her…way to go Cracked…but why is everyone slapping me back for giving Rush credit. There might have been alot going on underground like you said, but it was Rush’s call to arms!

C-Lo…can’t imagine you’d feel the same way if Dems were coming across to mess with a Repub primary. Of course you can vote for whomever you want, but it’s simply bad form in a representative democracy to vote in such a manner.

C-Lo if you aren’t from Texas sometimes it can be hard to understand. We are an Independent bunch in the sense that we don’t like anyone telling us how we should do things.

Whether it be praying at football games (Santa Fe ISD vs. Doe), right to carry, how to vote, etc.

This was in the works long before Rush started talking about it happening. Rush sometimes does things so that he can claim victory, but the truth in this matter is that it was already happening. Most of y’all who wouldn’t know what is going on here would think that it was Rush, but those of us who live here would know that it happened long before him suggesting.

Just for instance this morning was the first time I had heard about Rush doing this. They were tlaking about it on Morning Joe, and I seriously considered not doing it because they acted like we were all doing it because of Rush. Nothing could be farther from the truth. We are doing it because Texans have always thought outside the box, and for many other reasons.

Go Hillary,

We love you in NYC. We will never forget what you have done for us during 911.

God bless.

Is there any talk in Texas about Obama and Nafta?
Every time you saw him on TV even in Texas he was talking about Youngstown OH. Did bashing Nafta and talking about OHIO play well in TX?

You are right, Texas was slow to warm up to him because they didn’t know him. There are still doubts about him however he has been able to build up a base of support among the young, AA’s and young to middle age latinos(not 1st and 2nd generation like in California) just enough to win. Also, he was never expected to do well in College Station because it is far more conservative. Watch East Texas tonight.

As for AA vote turnout, they turned out huge for him in early voting and most will be voting this evening. You are also seriously underestimating AA support and voting power in Dem primaries especially in one with a very viable AA candidate. I invite you to look at how Obama has fared with AA’s throughout this primary season, beating even their OWN expectations.

Brian, it wouldn’t surprise me at all. In fact I grew up in a place called Clear Lake. That is where NASA is. Basically it was and still is a rather large white area. It has changed a little, but is still mostly white. Earlier in the day I was talking to my dad when he went to vote, and he could not believe how many white voters we lined up to vote in the Democratic primary. He didn’t crossover, and in fact they vote at separate places.

He and my mom had driven by the elementary school were the Dem primary was taking place. Clear Lake was annexed by Houston, but is really a suburb. It is in Harris County. Places like this can make all the difference in the world.

To me the Houston Chronicle was just wrong in predicting that the black vote would be 30% of the Dem primary. Maybe it will be in the end, but that number just seemed really high considering that it has never really gone there before. The fact still remains that if the Hispanic vote gets their butt in gear they can out vote the AA vote.

No one is talking about the Hispanic vote, but I think that they may have actually turned out in this one like I showed in Hidalgo County. If that is the case as well the AA vote is not going to be near the % they predicted. They thought that the AA vote would be larger than the Hispanic it may be that they are wrong.

My point wasn’t to say what is going to happen here, but I felt like Anon was being a tad misleading. This state is just so big and different it is hard to predict.

Not watergate, whitewater, sorry.

I guess my brain had a dubya.

Seems like there is alot of bad news here for Obama. Will he take Texas.

easily explained – folks are going to go to poll tonight before the caucus. No need to go twice in one day when you can get it all done at once. Obama folks are more likely to caucus, thus more likely to vote late. I am not at all surprised that the early voting is favoring hillary, or that turnout is lower than expected. There are caucuses later, do both at once and life it better.

Ben, and I am sure you felt the same way when it happend for McCain in 2000 and 2004. It has been a huge part of politics in this country for a long time.

Besides you don’t know that these people don’t like Hillary. Some of them are probably genuine. Who am I to judge? Most people on this site know that I am not a McCain fan at all. So how do you know that people like me don’t prefer Hillary? I certainly prefer her over Obama.

Ben and co., I believe the Dems set the rules for their primary and they chose open voting thereby allowing anyone to vote in their primary.
And Dems and Soros etc already forced the Repubs to have Mccain – the Dems wanted to run against Mccain and ‘played’ in the Repub election to get it their way.
What’s good the goose…etc.

Barak might win the primary, but I think there are some scandals to come out that will keep him from getting the Nov election — Rezko fund-raisers, the Nafta wink, wink, drug use, association/mentoring by a communist in Hawaii named “Frank” in his book (Frank Marshall Davis of the US Communist Party, backed by Moscow in the cold war days) etc etc

All of the posters saying that Rush Limbaugh had nothing to do with crossing over and voting for Hillary must be joking. Republicans in Texas don’t wipe their behinds in the bathroom without first checking what Rush Limbaugh thinks about it. There are very few original ideas in the Texas Republican Party. Most of their ideas come from Limbaugh’s radio program, and this “Hillary cross-over” voting trend is no different.

I don’t buy these exit poll results….. if these are so accurate, then why aren’t other sites reporting them?

And if I remember correctly, this site had Hillary winning Wisconsin in the exits 49-46……… I think Obama won handily 58-41

This site is pure crap

Can anyone comment on people who remain undecided and are voting for Hillary at the polls but intend to caucus for Barack??? I read another blog which indicated that this was happening. If that is the case, is the original vote discounted, or caucus vote discounted, or how the heck does this work?

I wouldn’t being born and raised in Universal City, TX “showing my ass,” we shall see who is right at the end of the night. I am not going to reveal my source who is keeping me updated on what is going on the ground in Texas. Thanks for your words though.

Let’s be honest- all Obama’s pie in the sky smoke blowing BS is not going to fly in Texas. Too many people with too much common sense. HRC wins Texas now and Mac wins big in November.

Steve – can you give me the websites of other polls?

Waiting anxiously today in NM…

Go to hell, Bobby. I would never want to board the “Clinton Train.”

Everyone is talking a lot about “sources” and numbers, but I haven’t seen a thing yet.

Milo, good point. Me using facts about what is happening to combat the Obama crap on this site shows that I am a “clintonite.” Great idea! Did you come up with that all on your own?

I could careless about Clinton. I was simply trying to give my perspective as to what was happening in Texas, but more specific the areas to watch.

It’s amazing that you can have a normal discussion with people like Brian and C-Lo, but then we have the Slow Patrol that comes aboard and makes silly accusations.

By the way ain’t Texas a split time zone and alot of polls close at 8pm est?

Paul,

Just out by El Paso. There is literally nothing out there besides El Paso. I would think that Hillary would run well there, but who really knows.

GDB–That’s a great point I hadn’t thought of. If Obama does better in the caucus portion as expected, it would make sense that many of his supporters would simply wait to vote until immediately before the caucus.

A question for those in TX: What happens if there are lines when the polls close? Usually if you are in line, you get to vote. But what if the line means you don’t vote until after 7:15? Do they just push back the caucus?

no confirmed exit polls out yet but National Review (I know, a right wing site) often has accurate exits… they were calling wisconsin for Obama by a 60-40 margin, so pretty close to actual results

Again, this site was WAY off previously. It makes me suspect they have very few people actually on the ground getting an accurate read of what is going on

Drop out? Give me a break? With a 100 delegate lead?

anon, it isn’t about being right. First, I don’t have a dog in the fight on the Dem side of things. Second, I never made any predictions. The only thing that I have done is explain where Obama will have to do well, and have said that it seems Hillary is doing much better here than many were predicting.

I explained the regions of Texas, and how I would expect the voting to breakdown. The only reason I felt that I even needed to explain that to some was because you were being a tad misleading. Maybe that was your intention.

Again it matters little to me whether you are right or wrong. My intention was to explain the voting breakdown. You acted as if Texas is this easy state to predict how the vote would breakdown. That seems hard given the fact that Texas has never held a primary of any importance in a long time. At least not in my lifetime, and the demographics have changed in that very short time.

You also kept saying the Hispanic vote doesn’t turn out, but Hidalgo County proved that thinking wrong. What’s next? My only point was to get some truth out there among you very general and misleading statements. Hopefully for your souces sake they are right because if not that source may want to find another job.

I really really wish someone could just give us a clue about the exit number so we know if Hillary seems to be winning by 3 or 5 points, or 10 points, or what? That way we can assess whether a shift back toward Obama is possible or not. Can you please share some hints? We know all the caveats.

QsL,

Not misleading. They had the highest % of early voters, and that means the Hispanic vote is turning out. If they do that all over the state that is good for Hillary.

It is a small county comapred to places like Harris, but the point was the Hispanic vote was turning out.

This is what I said in that post in response to the Hispanic vote not turning out:

“the largest % of Democratic early voters came from Hidalgo County. That is in the Rio Grande valley where the Hispanic vote is.”

That is a true statement, and not misleading. Here is what the AP said:

“The biggest percentage turnout among Democrats was Hidalgo County, in the predominantly Hispanic Rio Grande Valley, where 18 percent of registered voters cast ballots.”

Get your facts straight. You Dems are some weak sisters.

I agree Anon. But I can dream, can’t I?

anon, you miss the point. I wish I could say this is a surprise, but that would be a lie.

If Hidalgo is voting that way that means the Hispanic vote is turning out. If they are turning out like that all over the state they make up a higher % than the AA vote. Your point was that they don’t turn out. In turn I used Hidalgo County to prove my point that they were turning out. I hope that you can follow this simple exercise.

Now it is “Compare Hidalgo with four years ago. The turnout difference although their is an increase is not as big of an increase compared to the other counties.” Well which is it they don’t turnout, or now they do but it’s not as a big of an increase as other counties?

How do you know that the other counties don’t have Hispanics in the early voting? Let me remind you that your point was that the Hispanic vote doesn’t turn out. That was proved wrong by one of the most Hispanic counties having the strongest % turnout among Democrats. Again if that happens all over the state that voting bloc is much bigger than the AA.

I just notice Foxnews has a rolling thing on the bottom of the screen with Exitpoll info. No numbers just saying what group going where. Hillary is Carrying Union household which is one in three of all primary voters.

I don’t know how much faith to put in you guys, but this is my first trip to a blog for exit polling data. If a bit crude at times, this is still entertaining as hell.

Thanks

Clinton beating Obama in Ohio by 2 to 1.

2 to 1 with Seniors that is.

I am being completely honest about my connection. Source is VERY VERY close to Obama both professionally and personally.

2 to 1???? lol your source? please

Both of those statements are true.

Hidalgo did turn out, as a percentage, higher than other counties and somewhat higher than they did in 2004. Fact.

Other counties turned out at a far higher rate than they did in previous elections. Fact.

Hidalgo beat every other county in absolute numbers for EV in 2004 despite being the 9th largest county in Texas and less and 1/6 the size of the largest county. That’s turning out the vote.

This year Hidalgo was 6th in EV in absolute numbers and less than 1/3 the vote in the highest turnout county, less than 1/2 in two others. It’s very hard to translate that into saying that Hispanic turnout will be as high as in previous elections as a percentage of the voting.

Of course other counties have Hispanics. Bexar has plenty, and of course Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, etc. do. This is Texas. However Texas Hispanics are not a monolithic block vote. If there is a monolithic block vote in the Hispanic community, it’s south of I-10, and even that is showing a lot of signs of fragmenting.

My point was never that the Hispanic vote doesn’t turn out. That would be stupid. My point is 1) that everyone is turning out this year, 2) that based on EV numbers there is no evidence for the idea that Hispanics will be as high a percentage of the vote as in prior years, and a fair bit of counterevidence, and 3) that based on EV numbers there’s a lot of evidence that the rate of AA voters will turn out in increased numbers relative to both Hispanic voters and the general population of the state. I’m not saying Hispanics won’t turn out in record numbers; they will. I’m saying that AA’s and caucasians and everyone else will also turn out in record numbers, and there’s at least reason to believe that the percentage increase in turnout among other groups will be higher than that of Hispanics.

There’s a lot of data to support that both in polling and EV numbers. I haven’t seen any data to support the contrary view. Hispanic-dominated counties always do well in EV, historically. This year, unlike previous years, non-Hispanic-dominated counties have beaten them out. It could be that the early voting numbers in Harris, Dallas, etc are all Hispanic voters as well — but that doesn’t seem likely. And, if it is, it shoots completely the idea that HRC is favored by Hispanics, since all but one poll has indicated a 10%-range edge to Obama in EV, and some have gone up near 20%.

Here’s some more exit polling from Time…nothing new here as compared to previos primaries.

Six in 10 Democratic voters in Ohio called the economy their top issue, and 8 in 10 said trade eliminates more job than it creates.

I corrected myself. it was 2 to 1 seniors for Hillary, and 2 to 1 18-29 year olds for Obama.

Important clarification, Paul.

Also, john and Thom, you are assuming that those Independents are going for Obama. That may be a safe assumption, but I wouldn’t necessarily jump to conclusions. But I sure hope you’re right. And, yes, Thom, this is kinda fun, but it would be a hell of a lot more fun if I knew that Obama was doing well!

Milo, it’s Texas so you are damn right I am excited. That doesn’t mean you should jump to conclusions.

I am simply enjoying myself, and breaking down the regions for those that don’t know. If you really think that I am for Hillary than so be it. Just because I won’t support your boy McCain doesn’t make me a fan of Hillary. I am enjoying the process that is taking place in Texas. For someone who enjoys politics it is fun to watch your state be a part of the process for a change. That is even if it is on the Dem side.

Intrade quotes are right at 50/50 and static, I don’t think anyone knows, or even thinks they know anything yet.

Fox Exit Polling: This pretty much equals out:

Ohio — Obama 52, Clinton 44
Texas — Obama 52, Clinton 41

Offers clear and detailed plans:

Ohio — Clinton 67, Obama 57
Texas — Clinton 66, Obama 52

Inspires you about the future?

Ohio — Obama 67, Clinton 57
Texas — Obama 64, Clinton 57

FYI to all the Clinton 49-Obama 46 poll was a Clinton internal for Ohio, not Texas.

Haha. None of his West Coast friends have been indicted.

Obama leads in TX among African Americans by 67 points, HRC leads among Hispanics by 29. I think Hillary was hoping for a bigger boost from the hispanic vote, this doesn’t bode well for her.

Grist for the mill:

Sent: Tue Mar 04 17:18:14 2008 Subject:
Exits 1 and 2 wave RI — 49/49 OH — 49/51
TX — 51/49
First numbers are HRC

TEXAS
CBS News – HRC up 2 or 3 in TX

Fox News – Make up in the electorate is 31% Hispanic (2 to 1 for HRC); 19% African American (82% for Obama). Change is only polling 43% in Texas .

OHIO

Fox News – [O] Down about 2 to 3 in Ohio .

CBS News – [O] Say up about 2 to 3.

BOTH cautioned that the numbers are too close to be reliable.

Fox News – It’s close. Suggestion that he’s doing okay with White woman, maybe as much as 60%. Economy is the most important issue, say 61% Democrats. African Americans… Obama is winning 90%. Change is most important in Ohio .

First Word of Exits For Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island, Vermont

This is interesting. One of my sources has gotten two sets of exit poll results. It’s unclear whether this is different pollsters or, I suspect, different times of day.

For the first set, Obama is up by 2 percent in Ohio, Hillary is up by 2 percent in Texas, Hillary is up by 3 percent in Rhode Island and Obama is up by a 2 to 1 margin in Vermont.

The second set is similarly close – Hillary up by 2 percent in Ohio, the two Democrats tied in Texas, Obama ahead by 2 percent in Rhode Island and a similar 2 to 1 margin in Vermont.

There is a thread on Marc Ambinder’s blog at The Atlanitc where someone is posting “INSIDE SOURCE” leaked exit polling. Problem is, the first set add up to 105% of the vote. I’ll let all you other political junkies evaluate whether they look real. Here’s the link.

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/03/early_views_from_the_clintonob.php

I feel sick. Go Obama!

RI may be a shocker in this one.

Thanks CB – you beat me to that update.

Looks like anon has some pretty good info.

Look the trend on intrade site.
Smell not good for HRC

Updated Exit polls:

Vermont: Obama 67, Clinton 33
Ohio: Obama 51, Clinton 49
Texas: Obama 51, Clinton 49
Rhode Island: Clinton 49, Obama 49

go bless you tina
even If I don’t thunk it’s true

Tina – What happened to the Hedgehog Report? It has been replaced by some animal food ad.

Keep in mind those are exit polls and they are all within the margin of error (except VA). So, anything could happen tonight, particularly considering how off most of the polls have been this year.

Hillary carrying non collage grads in Ohio by 13%, Obama up 14 with Collage grads.

anon–

Give us your predictions again?

The polls in both Ohio and Texas have late deciders going Hillary. It is not going to be Obama’s night!

VT was called for Obama – at least on Drudge. I know he’ll win that one for sure.

Thom – what would you want – that folks make up numbers to please you?

BTM – Thanks for putting it so much better

BTM — your latest numbers are music to my ears. Btw, I am a Democrat, but I like your site.

Erik, we like liberals around here, particularly if they are well-spoken and well-mannered. Its the loons that we make fun of, but we make fun of the righty loons too Glad you like the site.

And I still say that don’t let the door hit you on the way out. If you look at the bottom I’m the one who has a sword in my hand lol.

Tina, thanks for your ACCURATE info. Who do you think will win Texas?

Can you confirm that Tx polls do not close until 9pm? Seems very late hour to be starting caucuses!

Does anyone know how the exit polls take into account early voting in Texas?

Ian, they close at 7 central in most of the state, and 8 central(7 Mountain) in El Paso.

BTM,

Thanks, that makes sense. I wonder if they have the data sequestered in one room with no cell phones etc. I don’t see how they could avoid massive leaks otherwise. I can see an intern/gopher wanting to impress his friends on Intrade by using insider information.

I believe TX will be won by Obama by a narrow single digit margin and he will win the caucus by a high single to low double digit margin.

Just my opinion.

The info does get leaked occasionally, and a lot of the campaigns themselves do their own exit polling. My friend who is on the Clinton campaign “leaked” their internal exit poll information in some earlier races, he was not able to contact me today regarding Ohio. Sometimes even the AP info gets leaked early as well. There is actually a central consortium that aggregates all the exit polling and releases it to all the major outlets, but now many networks also does their own exit polling too.

In Austin’s case it was the liberals.

Hillary wins Ohio 52-48 according to CNN exit polls!

Clinton will win Ohio. Stop voting Buckeyes for Obama – and stay home.

The Intrade markets are moving. After being steady for most of the evening, in the last hour Clinton winning Texas has dropped from 48% down to 38%.

“does not have the same emotional impact on young voters as he does.”
just about the dumbest thing I have ever read.

““does not have the same emotional impact on young voters as he does.â€?
just about the dumbest thing I have ever read.”

THAT IS THE DUMBEST DUMBEST THING I VE EVER READ ! rush…

I just want to say thank you so much for this great sight, and for generously responding to questions. GREATLY appreciated.

Here comes the “we don’t care about #’s from Ohio and Texas, let’s talk total delegate count” from Obama camp. Right Pundits was Right On. You heard their gameplan here first folks.

How is 750,000 votes only 1 percent of the vote? I thought there were about 2 million voters?

Intrade now has Clinton winning TX at 17%. This may be from people looking at the 8PM votes splitting 58/41 Obama. It’s less than 1% reporting so I don’t think they are meaningful unless we know where the votes are coming from. MSNBC said it may be from early voting results, but Clinton has been winning late deciders massively in OH. Does anyone have any information that would put the early results in perspective?

I reckon if that is 25% she has to beat him by 5.4% in the remaining 75% to tie

Looks like Obama is running away with the big city metro areas (as expected), but I find it interesting that he’s also doing well in some of the western counties that I thought were big Latino areas.

Assuming there are 2.0M voters in TX primary – here’s some quick math showing how things will end up if HRC wins 50%, 55%, 60% of the remaining vote -

50-50 45-55 40-60
Obama 1,058,339 1,000,990 943,641
HRC 941,662 999,010 1,056,359

And here’s what it would look like if Texas has 2.5M voters

50-50 45-55 40-60
Obama 1,308,339 1,225,990 1,143,641
HRC 1,191,662 1,274,010 1,356,359

Looks like Obama won early voting by something like 10%. I have a feeling HRC wasn’t expected that because McCauliffe was on MSNBC just before those numbers started coming in and talked about how they expected to win TX (and OH).

Maybe im wrong, but wouldnt SW texas that voted for an hour later be big Clinton country?

And none of those votes be included in the tally?

Call Texas For Hillary when shes down 10 pts???

I saw that post too…it would be pretty shocking to see that call at this point.

But then ten minutes ago the same guy said Mike Huckabee was staying in! Now he is calling it off tonight. Ten minutes is a long time in politics

I’m watching Huckabee’s concession speech, but I can’t help wondering who’s that dude in the wig next to him?

Hillary up by 1 or 2 points on CNN exit polls in Texas…BUT, do these count the early voting?

Exit Polls

RI HRC 51.6% BHO 47.5% (+4.1%)
OH HRC 51.1% BHO 48.9% (+2.2%)
TX HRC 49.9% BHO 48.6% (+1.3%)

Looks like HotBama’s streak is coming to an end if these are representative.

where are these numbers from?

All the early voting has not yet been counted. Many counties not reporting, mostly in rural south and west. Should be another 300,000 or so early ballots to count. Expect Clinton to close the gap slightly. If the exit polls are right (and bear in mind they usually overestimate Obama’s support), it will still be difficult for Clinton. But too early to tell.

But what about the early vote? According to the preceding analyses posted, HRC would need to have a larger margin in the exit polls. Somebody do the math.

People are getting carried away here!!! The early voted from El Paso County are still to come in (among others). This will cut the early vote lead for Obama. Things will be very very close. Bear in mind, El Paso is one of the most populous counties and heavily hispanic.

My numbers came from CNN exit polls. It would not provide enough for a win for HRC in Texas. She would still lose by about 40,000 votes (if the TV talking heads are correct in their assertion that the early voting was 1/3 of total vote).

Keith Olberman just compared McCain to Winston Churchill. Now I’m really confused.

There are 12.572 million registered voters. What the turnout was I don’t know. The numbers that are being shown on the networks is much different than what is being shown here in Texas.

We have basically 457,000 and some change for Clinton to 477,000 and some change for Obama.

The numbers from Nueces are starting to come in, and Hillary now has a 9,000 vote lead. That is up from about 6,000 in early voting.

As I post this it is now 501,000 for Hillary to 497,000 for Obama. I never saw those results on the networks.

Anyway it looks like a long night, but it seems the West is where it will be won.

513,433 to 505,179 for Clinton.

My numbers on local here in Texas are much different than the networks.

Can someone post a link where I can view the Texas votes by district as they come in. Thank you.

Could you imagine 28 years of government by 2 families? I’m glad we live in a democracy.

Here you go, Lisa. By county: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/county/#TXDEMMAPprimary

If HRC does wins both OHIO and Texas by less than 5 points, then it over… she has lost the nomination. Just like super Tuesday her campaign and the media will give her the moment, but after the dust settles the delegate count (which is all that matters) will not have changed. But what will have changed will be the the number of delegates left for HRC to fight for. Regardless of who you support, a tie is a winner for whomever is leading, and that is Obama.

554,671 to 539,475 for Clinton in Texas.

The early voting in Texas is still being counted. They show now only 6,000 separating them in early voting at this point.

Overall tally 572,000 to 548,000 for Clinton.

The emotional impact of Oboma is what I’m worried about. Many young people (as well as some older ones) simply vote for the “I have a dream” feeling. But Oboma never really says how he will accomplish his dream, Clinton does.

Since the Republican race is over, I’m with Rush; a vote for Clinton is a vote for McCain. We should cross over like many democrates did against Romney. And if Clinton wins, she would be a better leader than Oboma but would lake the emotional vote and, therefore, it would be a tighter race with McCain.

Bangs, here is an argument, it is impossible to call something a fact that has not yet happened.

Its OVER Tina…HRC is the nominee

Bangs – I do so admire your absolute belief in yourself

Bangs, you are either the most optimistic Clinton-supporter on earth, or you see things no one else does.

BTW, I think one thing I learned from this site is that exit polls are worthless. RI-wrong, pretty much every exit poll was way off on that one. Ohio – looks like it was off as Clinton will win it looks like with double digits. Texas – we’ll see.

The night-before polls seem fairly accurate, especially those from surveyusa and PPP.

Ian..there’s dreaming and then there is reality. The reality of today’s numbers are – HRC is an odds on shoo-in as POUSA. The people have spoken. She’s clobbered Ohio. Has Texas in her pocket and that it that. Game over. Obama should back out TOMORROW if not TONIGHT. Period. Her momentum is undeniable…and unstoppable. She is a hurtling train, completely unbeatable now.

When reporting exit polls – I typically write take with a grain of salt. They tend to be inaccurate – as demonstrated in 2004 and in many primaries this time around.

MCCAIN is right…this is HRC’s night and HER Presidency to lose. Which she WILL not. This isn’t bluster…simply facts. If you follow and KNOW politics, it’s clear to you that HRC is now the next President-elect. And easily so…

It’s just the truth, like it or not (and believe me, I am not happy about that)

BTW, any reports on the caucuses? CNN is reporting pandemonium. Who does that favor? I guess Obama as his supporters are more fanatic, BUT the Af. Am turnout seems very low, and you can’t vote in the caucus if you didn’t vote in the primary.

What else is new? When you can’t win, sue…

Who was that anon person that was SO sure Obama was going to win Texas by +3. I bet they are ashamed now. She’s going to take the night.

I have a friend in El Paso who has been driving women to the caucuses all night, for Hillary.

maybe anon wasn’t wrong he’s coming up in Texas, who knows. It is very close.

Anon is a she, I think. she corrected the last person who referred as “he.” In any case, she seems to have vanished.

Anon was most wrong about RI. I’m wondering what’s going on with that.

What’s bad for Obama is that the issues that seem to be taking him down are fairly new. The red telephone will come back. The NAFTA issue is just barely being understood by the people. The big “Mo” is just starting to go against him . That’s bad, even if he wins the nomination eventually. The luster is starting fade big time.

Yeah, anon was very wrong about RI. That’s so annoying when people act like they have a “source”. It is clear now that he will lose Texas too… the networks will cary on all night for ratings.

Have Dallas and Harris reported yet?

El Paso will be huge for Hillary. At least that is what I think when looking at the other Hispanic counties. She is really killing it in those counties.

I don’t know that the AA vote didn’t show up as much as the Hispanic vote did. I tried telling everyone further up the thread how Texas broke down. The Hispanic vote is larger than the black. You can’t judge Texas by other states, and their Hispanic vote. A primary has never really been important in this state.

I did not know how the Dems in this state would vote, but I certainly know that Texas isn’t just going to fall like all the others. It’s a close race and anything can still happen, but we certainly saw the Hispanic vote come out in Texas like it never has before.

Come on, fourthebest, don’t rub it in. It looks like the late voters did it for Clinton. CNN had Obama up early do to the early voters. Those who voted today seemed to favor Clinton by a few percentage points.

The Republicans really are clever… almost sinister they are so clever. Clinton thinks she’s on top now, but the GOP has been waiting to tear her/ the Clintons a part for years. She is going to be shamed and McCain will be the nominee. The DEMS race is just going to get ugly. If the DEMS had rallied around OBAMA earlier they would have had a better chance of winning the white house then they will with Clinton, not smart.

what d you think tina? you ready to call it?

MCCAIN I came close to calling it this afternoon in this thread. I am kidding, but the numbers certainly looked that way to this novice when I looked at them about 20 minutes ago.

Seems like the right decision.

Won’t Obama still get more delegates after tonight in Texas, especially since the popular vote is so close, but he’s far ahead (almost 2-1) in key counties like the Dallas/Ft Worth metroplex, Austin, and Houston metropolitan area? I thought that there was a disproportionate allocation of delegates to those counties . . . or State Senate precincts.

From the map on CNN, looks like in a lot of areas, it a 50/50 split, were-as there’s a big tilt for Hillary in Hidalgo, Bexar (San Antonio) and El-Paso counties, while Obama has the same lop-sided victories in the other major metropolitan areas.

Won’t that really mean a “win” for Obama as far as delegate count goes?

Here comes Santa Claus!
Here comes Santa Claus!
Right down Santa Claus Lane!
Vixen and Blitzen and all his reindeer
are pulling on the reins.
Bells are ringing, children singing;
All is merry and bright.
Hang your stockings and say your prayers,
‘Cause Santa Claus comes tonight.

Hasn’t this idiot ever heard the expression that less is more???

They have to be close to calling this thing. Harris County is coming in, and she is gaining small amounts. If he is not going to do better than that she may end up winning by more.