Here is your thread for Wisconsin exit polls and election results for the Wisconsin primary. We will live-blog throughout the day for both the Republican and Democrat primary so use this thread to start the dialog. Winners will be posted as soon as we can make the call.

Note: Exit polls and winner thread for the 2010 general election between Russ Feingold and Ron Johnson are here.

Live Updates Below.




Barack Obama and John McCain have the edge over Hillary Clinton and Mike Huckabee.

Hillary Clinton loves guns in Wisconsin. Who knew? Does Obama hunt?

Obama’s delegates are being targeted by the Hillary machine.




The latest polls say that Barack Obama and John McCain will win their respective party primaries over Hillary Clinton and Mike Huckabee. Pre-election polls have been right for the most part, as expected, but there have been some glaring misses such as in California.

So with that caution, here are the Wisconsin polls on election eve:

Wisconsin Polls

PPP:

  • McCain 50%
  • Huckabee 39%
  • Paul 6%

ARG:

  • McCain 46%
  • Huckabee 42%
  • Paul 4%

Research 2000:

  • McCain 48%
  • Huckabee 32%
  • Paul 7%
  • Obama 47%
  • Clinton 42%

Rasmussen:

  • Obama 47%
  • Clinton 43%

February 19th Live-blogging Updates:

Wisconsin exit poll data:

Full exit polls: Democrat and Republican.

12pm – Expect this to be a tight race between Obama and Clinton with the possibility of upset. Hillary Clinton may have closed the gap in the past two days. On the GOP side, remember that John McCain always under-performs in the early exit polls.

1pm – See predictions thread here.

2pm – Clinton now in Ohio, Obama in Texas. Clinton had returned to Wisconsin for three rallies on Monday, another sign that she was closing the gap.

2.30pm – Heavy turnout despite weather. Vote occurring in 0 degree weather with high winds across the state.

4pm – McCain victory speech will come from Ohio tonight. Is it Obama or Hillary on top? Expect close contest!

4.30pm – No reports of significant voting problems. Polls not overwhelmed with long lines. Are Wisconsin voters smarter than the rest of us?

4.45pm – Turnout is thus far only “heavy” but not the overwhelming records we have seen in other states. Cold weather is playing a factor and the negative “plagiarism” campaigning of the past day may have taken some toll. Obama GOTV effort is excellent in the churches and local phone banks. Lots of same day registrations going for Obama. Obama strong in Madison. Some Republicans voting for Hillary (see comments) but there are few reports.

(continued below in “results” section)

(February 19th, 2008.)

Final election results here.

Republican Primary Results (Wisconsin):
6pm Update: McCain +8
More men than women voted Rep.
GOP voters were older than Dem. voters by wide margin.

Huckabee carries “very conservative” by +10.

McCain carries Seniors.

McCain seen as most electable by large (ie Huge) margin.

Democrat Primary Results (Wisconsin):

5:53 Update– Early Exit Poll: Clinton 49 Obama 45 Hold onto your Hats! It’s gonna be a long night!
This poll doesn’t account for evening voters (professionals) who are now getting off work and heading to the polls.
Bad Economy is on Dem. Wisconsin Voters mind.

Next day clarification: the 49-45% figure was first wave analysis provided by a (perhaps too exuberant) campaign source.

15% of Dem voters had never voted before. Half think the economy is very bad. More women than men voted Dem.
Dem. voters, or at least voters who voted for a Dem. candidate outnumber Republican voters by LARGE margin. Could this signify Republican cross-over? Probably not as it’s been seen in other states without open primaries.

6:45 Update: Obama 57 Clinton 41. One of these polls is going to be wrong! 90% of Dem voters were white.

7:07 – White – 88%, African American – 8%, Latino – 4%. Male, 43%, Female – 57%.

7:15 – Change more important than experience, 52-24%. Hillary is far more “mean,” but everyone knows that already. :)

Late into is that Obama is looking stronger.

Take this data mentioned in the comments with a grain of salt.

Clinton carried Seniors by +21, Obama carried Independents by +29

7:33 – up to 15% of the voters in Wisconsin today are reported to be new voters – voters can register at the polls in the totally open Wisconsin primary – possibly helping Obama.

7.50pm – 2nd and 3rd waves of data out. Remember that later waves are statistically adjusted by the poll taking companies to reflect demographics more closely. That is why early data is often wildly off. Things are still unsettled and all over the map at this hour. With that caveat, Obama is looking very good, up by as many as 10-20 points. Still very iffy and things can change with further data normalization. Do not bank on today’s exit polls.

8.30 – I warned you earlier to beware of the CBS exit poll data linked above which has been incestuously referenced and circulated all over the net. Thanks to the commenter (Paul8148) who noticed that CBS pulled the data down. CBS still has their news article up.

8.53 – Obama will win Wisconsin. McCain wins on the GOP side.

Midnight – Final results: 58-41% Obama.

(February 19th, 2008.)