As was reported on Right Pundits last week, Senator John McCain has been desperately seeking the endorsement of former delegate front-runner Mitt Romney. Senator McCain had gone so far as to hire former Romney staffers and ask friends in high places to call Gov. Romney and lean on him for an endorsement. Gov. Romney has been labeled the “Conservative’s conservative” and is widely seen as a leader in the conservative movement in America.
Well, all that beggin’ has paid off as Mitt Romney will endorse Senator John McCain today in Boston. Gov. Romney will focus on Senator McCain’s military leadership that is needed in today’s world.
Senator McCain’s campaign has been dealt huge setbacks lately by conservatives in the Republican Party refusing to vote for him. Senator McCain lost a caucus in Kansas last week to Gov. Mike Huckabee by a huge margin, which was followed up by a loss again to Mr. Huckabee in Louisiana. To date, Senator McCain has not been able to win over conservative votes in large margin.
As was suggested by Right Pundits last week, Sen. McCain’s only option in winning over conservative voters was to get the endorsement of Gov. Romney. Today’s endorsement is precisely what Senator McCain needed to be seen as a serious contender by conservatives across the country.
Although Gov. Romney will request his delegates vote for Senator McCain, there is no requirement for them to follow his request and thus, the Republican nominee is still a race between Gov. Huckabee and Sen. McCain. Senator McCain is currently leading the delegate count.
February 14th, 2008 at 11:34 am
This makes me sick. I know he has to do it so he can run in 2012 but I still wish he wouldn’t. We should have a conservative run for President. We are republicans after all.
Now its the battle of the dems. Do we want the dem with the D next to his name or the dem with the R next to his name.
February 14th, 2008 at 11:44 am
McCain is a conservative. I will do a comparison chart tomorrow of John McCain and Ronald Reagan, everyone’s nostalgic image of the perfect conservative candidate.
Good move by Romney. Good for the party and good for conservatives.
February 14th, 2008 at 11:46 am
I hear what you are saying George, but surely you aren’t insinuating that McCain would be the same as Obama or Clinton. I understand that people don’t feel like they are being represented as conservatives, but I don’t think it is even close to accurate to equate the three.
My frustration in hearing these comments over and over and over and over again is - What now, then? I hear that you are upset, but what can be done at this point? The “Conservative base” didn’t do their job in rallying behind someone strongly enough to get them the nomination. So, I say there is definitely some blame that should go to the conservative base as well.
We are where we are and now the decision is to support McCain, go with a third party, or elect a Democrat.
February 14th, 2008 at 11:54 am
The economic conservative base did rally for McCain. The pro-life base will rally for McCain. This new “border fence” base will have to expand their list of issues. And no, don’t anyone tell me that they REALLY care a lot about campaign financing laws. Nobody talks about McCain-Feingold at the water cooler.
Am I the only one getting weary of people who have a strange obsession of hating John McCain thinking they are speaking for the entire “conservative base.” Base is who reliably votes. Those votes have been going for McCain by a nose.
February 14th, 2008 at 12:43 pm
No conservatives rallied behind McCain, that’s why he is getting trounced in red states. The Mitt endorsement will help a lot.
McCain himself is the one that should care about McCain-Feingold. He’s the one that it has hurt all season and will hurt into the fall. He’s in desperate need of cash and is asking Rudy and Mitt for help raising it.
McCain has been consistently losing among conservatives the entire race. Even with Romney out, I think he lost conservatives in Virginia like 55% Huck — 30% McC.
However, Romney had been knighted a conservative by Rush, Ann, Sean, Laura, Beck, Etc. so this endorsement will give McCain a HUGE boost . . . My guess would be like 20 points. Even if 10% of the conservative base doesn’t vote McCain in Nov. McCain will lose.
McCain should start attacking Obama, that will rally the base to him. They’ll think “I don’t like Obama either, maybe McCain is my man.”
February 14th, 2008 at 12:46 pm
McCain-I agree with you completely.
My point, although not well stated, was that obviously not everyone feels like the more outspoken conservatives that we keep hearing. I just want others to know that their point has been heard, but the votes are in. If Romney would’ve gotten the nomination, I would be supporting him now. I made that decision before my vote for McCain.
Like Ronald Reagan said “My 80 percent friend is not my 20 percent enemy.” & 80% conservative does not make someone a democrat.
February 14th, 2008 at 12:55 pm
McCain is not a democrat, he’s an independent. That is, he doesn’t let party affiliation dictate his voting or his thinking.
February 14th, 2008 at 1:31 pm
McCain is a conservative, more so than Reagan, so stop with the hyperventilating. Regardless Brian’s breathless characterization of him getting “trounced” in red states with “no” conservative support is a non-sequitur and factually inaccurate. Conservatives aren’t legally restricted to living in red states. And he did win Florida, South Carolina, Virginia and Arizona so far, and basically tied in Louisiana. The exit polls are not supporting your view.
Brian, how about defining “conservative” in three sentences or less and we will see if Ronald Reagan fits your description. What is a “conservative” to you?
February 14th, 2008 at 1:38 pm
Just watched the press conference. This helped McCain a lot.
February 14th, 2008 at 2:02 pm
Just look at the exit polls. The majority of folks who viewed themselves as conservative didn’t vote for McCain, even in Florida and South Carolina. The data is pretty clear, he doesn’t carry conservatives but does carry independents, moderates, and liberals in the GOP. Of course, some conservatives vote for him, just not a majority. But therein lies his problem, without a majority of the conservatives, he has a hard time winning a majority of the voters, ie look at how many states McCain has gotten over 50% of the votes. There was Maryland last weekend and then?? I think he won Washington with like 25%.
This endorsement should help a lot.
February 14th, 2008 at 2:13 pm
Mitt goes out with one last flip-flop:
————————
Mitt Romney - 2/4/08:
(CNN) — Mitt Romney predicted Sunday his party’s conservative base
will rally behind him on Super Tuesday in order to prevent John McCain from winning the Republican nomination.
“What I have to do is continue to see what’s been happening the last
few days, specifically that is conservatives across the country are
saying, ‘whoa, we have to get behind Mitt Romney,’” he said on CNN’s
Late Edition.
“You’ve got people like Rush Limbaugh and Laura Ingraham and the list goes on and on and on — Hugh Hewitt, Lars Larson — conservative
voices, both from radio and from publications, are saying, ‘you know
what, we’ve got to get behind Mitt Romney,’” he continued. “We really
can’t afford John McCain as the nominee of our party.”
February 14th, 2008 at 2:20 pm
Here is a pretty good list of what I think Conservatism stands for (hat tip to Bill Quick at daily pundit)
1. Smaller government.
2. Less expensive government.
3. Less intrusive government.
4. A federalism approach to those issues originally - and best - left to the states by the constitution.
5. A strong national defense - peace through strength and, if attacked, peace through victory over the enemy.
6. American nationalism - sometimes called patriotism.
7. A free market and a respect for the wealth-creating power of reasonably unfettered capitalism.
8. Individual liberty and personal responsibility.
9. Plain meaning constitutionalism: The Second Amendment, for instance, means what it plainly says.
10. Judged by the content of character, not the color of skin (or place of national origin).
11. Strong borders.
12. A revamped immigration system designed to let in a lot more of the people we want to let in, and a lot less of those who try to come without our invitation.
13. Government out of bedrooms and wallets (Social Conserviates won’t like this one).
14. Equality of opportunity without demands for equality of outcome.
14. A restoration and renewed appreciation for what was once called the American Dream.
15. A hopeful future rather than a bitter past.
This will do for a start. McCain is good on some of these, but very poor on others. Is he a hardcore Conservative? Hardly. Is he more Conservative the Obama/Clinton? Certainly. The real question in my mind is will McCain move the Republican party farther to the left by “working across the isle.” Reagan did this by forcing liberals to accept his ideas. I’m afraid McCain will adopt their ideas and make them Republican. This is real bad and unacceptable.
February 14th, 2008 at 3:16 pm
Jason, you are harsh.
BTM, that’s a fine list that most people calling themselves conservative would agree with. The problem is which principles each faction accentuates. And social conservatives would add principles and subtract some of yours. Gay marriage and abortion don’t fit into your list directly.
Also interesting that a couple are new issues thrown in there by the author, like borders and immigration. I’ll have to look up what Goldwater said about immigration, especially illegals.
February 15th, 2008 at 1:01 pm
“McCain is not a democrat, he’s an independent. That is, he doesn’t let party affiliation dictate his voting or his thinking.”
Right, he is not a democrat….he is a LIBERAL! He is smug and arrogant, and this conservitive will no be voting for him!
We needed a Carter to get a Reagan!
Being a POW does not entitle one to the Presidency!
February 15th, 2008 at 2:25 pm
Argh. We need a Carter to get a Reagan like I need a hole in the head. Quit with the corny slogans. Conservatism is about substance, not style.
February 15th, 2008 at 2:44 pm
Iowa - Very Conservative Vote
Huckabee - 35%
Romney - 23%
McCain - 6%
New Hampshire - Very Conservative Vote
Huckabee - 12%
Romney - 38%
McCain - 30%
Michigan - Very Conservative Vote
Huckabee - 24%
Romney - 48%
McCain - 11%
Nevada - Very Conservative Vote
Huckabee - 10%
Romney - 57%
McCain - 6%
South Carolina - Very Conservative Vote
Huckabee - 41%
Romney - 16%
McCain - 19%
Florida - Very Conservative Vote
Huckabee - 20%
Romney - 44%
McCain - 21%
Missouri - Very Conservative Vote
Huckabee - 49%
Romney - 32%
McCain - 16%
Arizona - Very Conservative Vote
Huckabee - 14%
Romney - 53%
McCain - 22%
Virginia - Very Conservative Vote
Huckabee - 65%
McCain - 25%
Maryland - Very Conservative Vote
Huckabee - 42%
McCain - 36%
Louisiana - Very Conservative Vote
Huckabee - 54%
McCain - 30%
Man you talk about McCain really cleaning up that conservative vote. I tell you what with those kind of numbers there is no doubt he wins the general.
He may have some conservative vote, but the fact he has very little is pretty factual.
February 15th, 2008 at 4:30 pm
Wellll, nice little game there with the numbers. You left out the part about there being two categories of “conservative” vote in the exit polls. McCain wins the “somewhat conservative” vote while you are correct about the “very conservative” vote. What we were talking about earlier was how to define conservative, so you are welcome to try. BTM has a list above. Extra bonus points for you to define “very conservative” versus “conservative.” Heh.
Exit polls tell us that the “very conservative” vote is about 30% of the Republican primary voters even in the closed primaries. So take Louisiana, for example. Huckabee’s 54% of “very conservative” calculates to 16% of the total Republican vote (.30 x .54), while McCain 30% is about 9% of the Republican vote (.30 x .30). This isn’t much to hang your hat upon. To me it is further evidence that a tiny fraction of Republicans are making too much noise.
February 16th, 2008 at 9:18 am
Here is “Vote By Ideology” in states that had exit/entrance polling:
Blue States:
California - 35% of Combined Conservative Vote (Romney 43%)
Conn. - 41% Combined Conservative Vote (Romney 44%)
Illinois - 35% Combined Conservative Vote Won (Romney 34%)
Maryland - 44% Combined Conservative Vote Won
Mass. - 24% Combined Conservative Vote (Romney 61%)
Michigan - 23% Combined Conservative Vote (Romney 41%)
New Hampshire - 30% Combined Conservative Vote (Romney 38%)
New Jersey - 49% Combined Conservative Vote Won
New York - 44% Combined Conservative Vote Won
Red States or States you must do well in to win as a Republican:
Alabama - 34% Combined Conservative Vote (Huckabee 43%)
Arizona - 40% Combined Conservative Vote (Romney 43%)
Arkansas - 17% Combined Conservative Vote
Florida - 29% Combined Conservative Vote (Romney 37%)
Georgia - 23% Combined Conservative Vote (Good enough for 3rd - Huckabee 38% Romney 36%)
Iowa - Very Conservative Vote: Huck 35% Romney 23% McCain 6%
Somewhat Conservative Vote: Huck 34% Romney 27% McCain 18%
Louisiana - 34% of Combined Conservative Vote (Huckabee 51%)
Missouri - 24% of Combined Conservative Vote (Again good enough for 3rd Huck 38% Romney 33%)
Nevada - 9% Combined Conservative Vote
Oklahoma - 31% Combined Conservative Vote (Huckabee 37%)
South Carolina - 26% Combined Conservative Vote
Tenn. - 24% Combined Conservative Vote (Again good enough for 3rd Huck 38% Romney 28%)
Virginia - 38% Combined Conservative Vote (Huck 51%)
In summary he has won 4 states out of these 22 with exit and entrace polling data. He is batting .181. Take into account the only states he has won the combined conservative vote in are blue states you really don’t have much to hang your hat on. Those states were Maryland, Illinois, New York, and New Jersey. Let’s alert the press because this is huge news.
He also was unable to win the combined conservative vote in his own state of Arizona. I guess you can take a moral victory in the fact that it was close. The real problem is his inability to carry the conservatvies in the South. That is a place any Republican has to run well, and run well with the conservative vote. That small fraction that you are talking about can be huge in the South. I don’t expect you to understand us Southern voters, and it is evident that you don’t have clue.
You think the coast yankees out in California win the elections for Republicans? Let me help you out it is that “tiny fraction of Republicans making too much noise” that wins the White House and the majority of Congress for your party. Thinking like yours really pisses me off because like so many shows such little understanding for how Republican elections are won.
I can admire your head in the sand mentality though. When you combine the 8 somewhat Southern states that Huckabee, Romney, and McCain competed in McCain came in 3rd in the combined conservative vote in 3 of them. They were Tenn., Georgia, and Missouri. When you look at a place like Missouri where Bush won by 196,000 votes in 2004 McCain is going to need all 279,000 combined conservative votes cast for Huckabee and Romney in that state. Factor in that the Dems had about 220,000 more votes cast in just the primary it is going to be an uphill climb. He can’t afford for even 5% of those conservatives to stay home.
Anyway you keep thinking that a “tiny fraction of Republicans are making too much noise” and see how that goes for you and your candidate.
February 16th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
Did you weight the percentages according to numbers of voters in each category or did you simply add the two percentages together? That is rather important.
Whether you are pissed off or not isn’t that important to me. Those are visceral feelings of the heart rather than the mind. The reality I am trying to convey to you is that your visceral feelings represents a small fraction of Republican voters. That is why we have elections.
Regardless McCain is your nominee so not sure where you really want to go with this. It is a bit like debating a flat earth. We are where we are, so what is the best way to win in November?
February 16th, 2008 at 1:37 pm
McCain,
One thing that is undeniable is that grassroots is very important when it comes to the general elections. If the most active part of the party is not feeling particularly motivated, what then happens?
We can debate how conservative McCain is or is not, what really matters is that a lot of conservatives just plain out don’t like him and won’t vote for him. I’m not sure what that percentage is, however even a relatively small percentage is enough to possibly shift the election to the Dems. Particularly when we apparently have the second coming of Christ himself embodied in the form of Barack Obama (at least that how Dems react to him). The Dems seem particullary motivated to get out and vote. Some of this is excitment over Obama and some of it is we hate W Bush so much that we can’t let another Republican win.
There are a ton of variables that will effect this. How many moderates/liberals does McCain attract and will that make up for the loss of some of the base? Possibly, but typically moderates don’t run grassroot efforts and GOTV efforts. The brilliance of Rove has been his ability to scare/motivate the base and get them out to vote for Bush in droves. Can McCain do this? Will Obama be perceived as the most liberal candidate to ever run for president? If it is Hillary does the ABC (anybody but Clinton) crowd make up for the loss of the base? Who knows. All I can say, it is going to be very interesting to watch this and historians will talk about this election for years to come.
February 16th, 2008 at 3:20 pm
Still you have to define “base” and what “conservatives” you are talking about. A social conservative in the #2 spot, such as Huckabee (although I think we can do better), cuts across much of that “base” issue and will get evangelicals to the polls since they tend not to hate McCain like these new conservatives. The GOP has a very strong GOTV plan in the bible areas. Social conservatives don’t appear to be much on your mind, at least not in the definition that you provided. But this is the single most reliable voting group in the GOP and the needs of this conservative block are important.
There is another section of the “base” that isn’t going to be happy with anything about McCain because they are to some extent not rationally thinking, at least not now. But I don’t see this group as a definable voting block. The lesson: can’t please everybody in a coalition. These poor people risk shutting themselves out of power completely if McCain manages to win the election. That would be too bad.
February 19th, 2008 at 10:52 am
Huckabee will not work as VP. McCain will not gain the conservative right and he will lose independents who would fear Huckabee (a “religious zealot”) in the oval office.
February 19th, 2008 at 11:21 am
I think that’s right, Brian. We should expect a surprise governor pick, like Sanford or Pawlenty. Because of the acidic nature of this election, anybody who participated (Romney included) comes with a large downside risk.
February 19th, 2008 at 11:36 am
Don’t forget that he and Thompson are pretty good friends. Pawlenty seems to be the favorite right now, but don’t count Christ or even Matt Blount out.