Here is your thread for Virginia exit polls and election results for the Virginia primary. We will live-blog throughout the day for both the Republican and Democrat primary so use this thread to start the dialog. Winners will be posted as soon as we can make the call.
Liberal kids are hyperventilating over the possibility of an Obama loss.
Fred Thompson endorses John McCain the day before the big election.
Political analyst Larry Sabato calls this a racial battleground state for Obama and Clinton which will reveal much about Obama’s appeal to white voters. “You can go to certain parts of the state and think you’re in the deep South. And you can go to parts and think you’re in the suburbs of Boston.”
The latest polls say that Barack Obama and John McCain will win their respective party primaries easily over Hillary Clinton and Mike Huckabee. Pre-election polls have been right for the most part, as expected, but there have been some glaring misses such as in California.
So with that caution, here are the Virginia polls on election eve:
- McCain 55%
- Huckabee 27%
- Paul 5%
- Obama 53%
- Clinton 37%
- Obama 55%
- Clinton 37%
- McCain 57%
- Huckabee 25%
- Paul 9%
- Obama 59%
- Clinton 39%
February 12th Live-blogging Updates:
Virginia exit poll data:
Update (1pm) – Light snow is not affecting turnout. The primary vote will break all state records.
Polls close at 7 p.m.
Update (3.30pm) – More conservative endorsements for McCain.
Exit poll data coming next…
Update (3.45pm) – Hint: Obama exceeding expectations. Expect a colossal rout.
Upudate (4.30) – McCain leading Huckabee.
Update (5.30pm) – Democrat voters rank economy, Iraq, and health care as their three primary issues, in that order.
Update (5.45pm) – 42% of Huckebee voters and 23% of McCain voters listen to talk radio often. Huckabee is getting almost 2/3 of the of self-described evangelical voters. The fact that McCain managed 1/3 is one of the reasons he is leading.
Update (6pm) – Fully 1/3 in the Democrat primary had never voted before, one of the reasons Obama is dominating the vote. 90% of Democrats think the economy is in bad condition while 50% of the republican voters believe that.
Update (6.15pm) – To those quoting Jim Geraghty about Huckabee running almost even with McCain, remember the usual characteristics of early polling data.
Explanation: In all the states I’ve looked at, the first waves of exit polling data substantially underplayed John McCain’s actual performance. Look at the numbers, for example, in California (Romney and McCain neck and neck), Arizona (same), and Florida (Romney winning). This may be an issue of seniors who aren’t chatty plus more motivated support for Huckabee and Romney. Later in the day, the data samplers seem to normalize their data better to match the characteristics of people who voted.
Update 6.30- McCain +6 Obama +19, Romney still getting votes?? Much closer than McCain had thought. McCain was expected to win by +30, if exit polls are right, it will be a single digit win.
See all data here.
(February 12th, 2008.)
Republican Primary Results (Virginia):
7pm – Republican race in VA TCTC. This is very bad news for McCain, who expected to win in Virginia by more than 30 points. All polls had McCain up by approx. 30 points.
7.30pm – McCain Huckabee too close to call. McCain leads 47-45 with 11% counted.
7.45pm – McCain slightly increasing lead. Up 3% with 33% counted. Ron Paul has 4%, Romney 3%. John McCain has been about the most lucky primary candidate I’ve ever seen. How can he keep winning razor thin primary margins? So I challenge my Right Pundits colleague who updated above that “this is very bad news” for McCain. He continues to pile up delegates. Just ask the New England Patriots if they would have been happy with a 3 point win.
8pm – McCain maintains 4% lead with 45% counted.
8:15pm – McCain up 3% with 55% counted. Huckabee cannot statistically make up this difference with the remaining vote.
Right Pundits calls John McCain wins Virginia primary at 8:15pm.
Live updates from the Virginia State Board of Election is here.
10.30pm – McCain pulled away 50-41% in the end. The suburbs were late reporting. The result is closer to margin expected in the pre-election polls. Note how far off the exit polls were, especially the early ones which always underestimate McCain’s strength.
Democrat Primary Results (Virginia):
4pm – Hillary will give her concession speech from Texas. She has already left Virginia.
6.45pm – Enough useless suspense. Obama wins Virginia. You heard it here first.
7pm – Fox News calls VA for Obama. Duh.
8pm – Obama crushing Hillary 2-1 with 40% counted. Interesting that Democrat voters doubled the number of Republican voters in Virginia. See the exit poll data above for reasons why Obama has the fire.
(February 12th, 2008.)