Celebrity election forecaster Nate Silver is predicting a 50-50 chance of the Republicans taking control of the Senate in the 2014 mid-term election. The obvious question is should anyone listen to him?

Nate Silver has correctly projected the last two presidential election victories by President Barack Obama. As such he has garnered the aura of a deity among liberal intelegentia in the United States. One imagines his followers like early Christians following Jesus Christ, hanging on his every word and reporting his every move on the back of a donkey.

Liberal reverence toward Nate Silver reminds me of that hilarious scene in Forest Gump when Tom Hanks goes on a cross country run. As his beard gets longer and longer, the jogging crowd behind him gets larger and larger. Eventually our hero turns around and someone excitedly whispers, “shhh. he has something to say!” In fact he had nothing useful to say to anyone that they don’t already know themselves.

The real story behind Nate Silver’s “success” as a political handicapper is that he has not done anything remarkable at all. If you average all the polls taken by all of the various polling outfits around the country, from Gallup to Rasmussen to CNN, you will get the same prediction that Nate Silver gives his doting followers, as if a dog prefers to get a milkbone biscuit from his master rather than a stranger.

The average of all the polls is in fact a well known (for accuracy) metric of polling during an election cycle. Real Clear Politics aggregates the polling data and presents such an average each day in election season for anyone to view for free. Those who follow it have had an accurate picture of who would win the last two presidential elections.

Nate Silver uses the same polls as RCP in his silly computer model, weighting them in certain ways, complicating things with new variables he deems useful, and ends up with the same results that he peddles as something unique. That liberals see his predictions as something relevant is amusing, like my crazy old aunt retelling her latest experience with a psychic.

Anyway, I note with interest and the aforementioned amusement that our man Nate is now predicting the GOP will have 50-51 seats in the next Senate, using the same polls once again that everyone else already knows. A 50-50 tie would keep the majority with the Democrats as Joe Biden can break any ties, while 51 would give the majority to the Republicans. You can read the liberal guru’s latest article here.