Yesterday may have been President′s Day, but today is the ′reel′ holiday as Atlas Shrugged II – The Strike is now available on DVD. Yes! The saga continues as Ayn Rand′s exceptional novel comes to life. Part 2 of the film takes up where we last left our heroes as they wonder ′Who is John Galt?′ The movie begins as Ellis Wyatt′s oil field is still burning away in Colorado after the government passes the Fair Share law. Amazing that Rand foresaw the current Obama agenda more than 50 years ago. But then, Socialism was already creeping its way more and more into our society through the school systems and government bureaucracies.
The world continues to sink as Capitalism dies. Gasoline is now over $40 a gallon, leaving train travel as the only way for most people and goods to get around. Despite the success of Dagny Taggart and Henry Reardon in building the John Galt Line, the economy is too depressed for any long-term profits. Freight trains that had been running several times per week are now only going twice a month with half the load. Meanwhile, Dagny continues her quest to unravel the mystery of a curious machine capable of turning the Earth′s static electricity into a usable energy source.
Henry Reardon is also under more pressure as the Fair Share law attempts to force him into submission. Refusing to fill an order to the government for his Reardon Metal, Henry is brought up on charges and faces 10 years in prison. A kangaroo court finds him guilty of being too greedy and independent, but since he is one of the last producers left around for the ′socially just′ looters to feast upon, his sentence is suspended.
By now the economy is so bad that the government in Washington enacts Directive 10-289, a decree that essentially ends Capitalism once and for all. Companies may not fire any employees, wages and prices are frozen, and consumers are mandated to spend the same as they did a year ago. Dagny has had enough and walks away, but not far enough. A train derailment brings her back into the game as Reardon is forced by blackmail to hand over his patents to the government.
When Dagny′s train to the crash site breaks down, she meets one of her technicians who still wears a ballcap from his last job as an employee of 20th Century Motors. The old company where Hank and her discovered the mysterious energy machine. Jeff Allen, the former employee, tells Dagny that he is the person responsible for the saying, ″Who is John Galt?″ He explains how Galt rebelled when the company adopted a ′socially just′ method of paying employees based on their needs instead of their productivity. Galt swore he would stop the motor of the world, so, whenever Allen hears about another factory closing, he wonders if John Galt is somehow responsible?
The history lesson is interrupted as a gifted engineer, Quentin Daniels, whom Dagny hired to work on the energy machine, calls her to resign from his task. She borrows Allen′s truck and heads for Utah to try to talk Daniels into staying. Dagny buys an old Lear Jet to expedite her journey, but she is already too late. Just as she prepares to land, she sees Daniels board a futuristic VSTOL jet and gives chase as it flies away. The VSTOL jet suddenly vanishes while apparently heading towards a mountain range. Dagny′s jet enters an energy field, disabling her plane and forcing her to crash. A man comes to help remove her from the debris and identifies himself as none other than John Galt!
All in all, a good flick! I still wonder how the producers intend to do Atlas Shrugged in just three movies? Back in the heyday of TV mini-series in the 1980s, there were plans to film a 6-part, 12-hour production. So far, the current team of film makers have given us about 4-hours worth and maybe half the book at best. The first film did remarkably well considering how few theaters actually showed it. This second offering had more screens when it was in the theaters, but had a fairly short run.
Thankfully, Atlas Shrugged II – The Strike, is now out on DVD and is also available via On Demand, too! Part 3 of the movie adaptation of Ayn Rand′s novel is set to be released in theaters on July 4, 2014. Hopefully, we′ll still have a country then despite the policies of Barack Obama. Unfortunately, the clock is ticking on America. As Ayn Rand once said, ″Money is the barometer of a society′s virtues. But when you see that in order to produce it, you need to obtain permission from those who produce nothing…You will know that your society is doomed.″ Well, thanks to Obama, we′re getting pretty close to that point in history. Some will argue that we′ve already passed it. So it might be time for all of us to ask, Who is John Galt?
February 19th, 2013 at 9:33 am
Looking forward to seeing part 2. Missed it while it played in the theaters.
A new book on Coolidge just came out. Same author who wrote “Forgotten Man”.
Atlas Shrugged and Coolidge should be on every one list to do this spring.
We have to put more Tea Party, Republicans and Libertarians in congress for 2014. Maybe we can save the republic.
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February 20th, 2013 at 12:47 am
“Well, thanks to Obama, we′re getting pretty close to that point in history.”
Any explanation for the performance of the “Obama stock market”? The investor class sure seems bullish about their future profits.
February 20th, 2013 at 6:20 am
That is an easy one, BTT, especially since I had the same question put forth by Buzzbee a week or two ago…
INFLATION! Yes! You Liberals keep forgetting that the Dow Jones Industrial Index is a FUTURES MARKET! Ever notice how it always goes up whenever the Federal Reserve announces that it is going to pump more cash into The System? As far as a barometer for the economy, ever notice how individual stocks usually go up whenever a company announces a new round of lay-offs? How the Dow usually ticks up when bad unemployment numbers are announced?
Funny how just a few years ago Progressive economists are all negative about the Dow’s high numbers, chastising Alan Greenspan for his observations about the stock bubble’s “irrational exuberance.” But now everything is just fine and wonderful with the Obama Bubble. You guys make me laugh!
February 20th, 2013 at 4:37 pm
Yeah, makes as much sense as Biden saying he keeps shotguns in his house.
If anyone ever sees him holding a gun it’ll prolly be in his mouth, and he’ll miss.
And even that, on his part, would be another honest mistake. Whatever, if you ever see Joe grab a gun, run like hell.
I dont know, maybe he feels he cant trust the Secret Service.
Or maybe he puked, crapped, whistled and pee’d himself so many times now they decided to give him his own gun
February 21st, 2013 at 1:16 am
Hi Andy:
I learned in your discussion of social security that the folks around here tend to use “inflation” as a general-purpose fog machine to block their view of awkward facts. (Somehow 12.4% wouldn’t be 12.4% because of “inflation”.)
1. No, the Dow Index is not a “futures market”. It is an index of SPOT PRICES for financial assets (stocks) whose prices reflect expected future benefits to investors. Investors pay for these stocks today, in today’s dollars, not in future dollars.
2. No, prices of financial assets do not reflect anything other than moderate expected inflation. The yield on 30-year inflation-indexed Treasuries is about 0.6% lately. The yield on traditional (non-inflation-indexed) 30-year Treasuries is about 3.2%. The difference (2.6%) is an approximate measure of the market’s expected average inflation rate over the next THIRTY YEARS.
3. Yes, the stock market is a barometer of investors’ expectations of future financial benefits, which may include increased profits from reorganization. A rising market means investors are bullish about the future (their future, not necessarily yours or mine). And maybe expectations can be foolish at times.
4. No, you offered no support for “Obama bubble” claim, and people who feared the tech bubble years ago are not being inconsistent in their current complacency. At the peak of the tech bubble in 2000, the price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 index was about 27. Today it is about 14. (Compare with the long-run average PE ratio since 19th century: about 15.)
5. Yes, maybe the high stock markets reflects that fact that corporate profits are at an all-time high, GDP is at an all-time high, interest rates are low, employment is growing, the economy is not falling apart, the worst case is maybe a recession in the near term. No “ticking clock” no “doom” no “point of no return”. Get a grip on yourselves!
February 21st, 2013 at 7:53 am
BTT,
1) The Dow Jones IS a futures market! Which is why I said you Liberal Moonbats know ZERO about economics! Just look at the link below and tell me what the difference is?
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures/
2) If you think the inflation rate over the next 30 years will average out to just 2.6%, then I suggest you buy plenty.
I won’t even bother wasting my time on points 3-5 since you are so horribly wrong on the first 2. When the Obama Bubble bursts and you are starving, perhaps some friendly God-based, church charity will provide you with some free food, since the government will be bankrupt.
February 21st, 2013 at 2:30 pm
“No “ticking clock” no “doom” no “point of no return”. Get a grip on yourselves!”
Funny, Obama was screaming chicken little all during his campaigns and first couple years in office.
“I inherited the worst depression/mess/deficit since the great depression”
Gimme 3 trillion to fix it.
Well, we all know how that worked out and liberals say “get a grip” ? (I understand, it snot your money, right BTT ?)
Figures,from Hawaii I can see the Middle East burning, little Chinese fckers running around inside Pentagon computers,rooster tails from N. Korean missiles, and Iran has taken on a curious green glow…and now everythings okay if we just cut military spending.
February 21st, 2013 at 10:03 pm
Andy,
Your link was to a futures contract on the DJIA. Futures contracts settle based on spot markets, so the DJIA must be a spot market for the futures contract to make any sense. You can buy futures on wheat also…
But let’s say you misspoke and really meant futures contracts on the DJIA rather than the Dow Jones Industrial Index that we see quoted in the news all the time. Can you please explain your point again? It makes even less sense this new way.
I did not say anything about my expectations of inflation. I simply proved, with evidence, that you were wrong in claiming that prices in financial markets reflect lots of expected inflation. They expect about 2.6% over the next thirty years.
So I was not “horribly wrong” about points 1 and 2. We’ll repeat the next 3 right now:
3. Yes, the stock market is a barometer of investors’ expectations of future financial benefits, which may include increased profits from reorganization. A rising market means investors are bullish about the future (their future, not necessarily yours or mine). And maybe expectations can be foolish at times.
4. No, you offered no support for “Obama bubble” claim, and people who feared the tech bubble years ago are not being inconsistent in their current complacency. At the peak of the tech bubble in 2000, the price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 index was about 27. Today it is about 14. (Compare with the long-run average PE ratio since 19th century: about 15.)
5. Yes, maybe the high stock markets reflects that fact that corporate profits are at an all-time high, GDP is at an all-time high, interest rates are low, employment is growing, the economy is not falling apart, the worst case is maybe a recession in the near term. No “ticking clock” no “doom” no “point of no return”. Get a grip on yourselves!
February 21st, 2013 at 10:36 pm
“No, prices of financial assets do not reflect anything other than moderate expected inflation.”
Depends what you own Einstein, and what your assets are invested in…401s are a financial asset whos “value” (price?) is not determined by inflation as much as the stocks performance
Or did you mean to say “value” and not “price” ?
You’re out of your league again and dragging irrelevant crap into the discussion as a smoke screen to hide your ignorance…
its getting old
February 22nd, 2013 at 7:10 am
BTT,
I was not in error in response to your assertion that the Dow is an indicator that the economy is doing just fine. When you and others like to throw up this issue of, “Look at the Dow, it’s over 14,000 points!”, we are talking about a futures market.
As for individual stocks, if you really did follow the market, then you would know that less than 10% of stocks have recovered or exceeded their ‘values’ since the 2008 Crash. For that matter, a whole bunch have never recovered from the Dot-Com Bubble Burst in 1999!
Therefore, your points 3 through 5 are wrong as the stock prices of individual companies themselves give no indication of an economic recovery. In the past, about 3-4 years ago when I was railing steadily about the bailouts and phony stimulus programs, I often referred to the markets as ‘Casino Economics’, since ‘investors’ are basically just buying stocks, betting that they will increase in value. Just as in Vegas, the game is rigged, thanks to the symbiotic relationship between Wall Street and Washington.
February 22nd, 2013 at 7:15 am
P.S., BTT,
Micky, as usual, scores points for understanding the difference between ;value’ and ‘price.’ Given that the ‘price’ of nearly every commodity has doubled or more since the Federal Reserve began dumping cash into the system in 2008, slashing the ‘value’ of our money, all of the numbers are juiced more than Lance Armstrong.
February 22nd, 2013 at 9:37 am
According to tinker, if the performance (value)of our financial assets, such as our 401Ks and homes were tied to inflation they would be reflecting the same gains.
In the last 3 years inflation for essentials such as gas, food and healthcare have skyrocketed.
Yet millions of 401s are still in the red, many are being rolled over to gold and silver.
Home equities are still pretty much a joke.
I’m no green shade pro, but I do own a small business and home,insurance policies etc…
and can tell you with confidence that the largest indicators in this economy paint a pretty dim future.
One can only wish that BTT knew what he was saying. If his case were true my assets values would of increased upwards of 20% in the last 3 year.
Wow, if my assets rose at the same levels of real inflation and not the stupid 2% projection I’d be partying my ass off.
A 5lb. box of chicken thighs was 5 bucks in 2910, 4 bucks on sale. Today its 9,00, 7 when on sale.
According to tinker, my 401 worth 100K in 2010 should be worth 180K today.
Hey Andy, how hard would it be to launch a line of post apocalyptic survival gear under the brand of “Ayn Rand” ?
February 22nd, 2013 at 10:21 am
The responses are amazing.
1) Are you guys willing to concede that pricing in bond markets imply an expected long-term inflation rate by investors of about 2.6%? Or are you in denial of this easily verified calculation?
1a) Even more amazing: You guys seem in denial about actual (not expected) inflation rates: So are you willing to concede that the rate of price inflation by any broad measure has averaged less than 3% since 2008?
2) I offered some simple fundamentals about the current level of the stock market in comparison with previous benchmarks. No response other than bluster.
Andy wants to compare stock prices today to their *peak* in 2007, but then wants to compare commodity prices to their *trough* in 2008/9 and then use only commodity prices as his measure of “inflation”. It is like walking with Alice through Wonderland.
February 22nd, 2013 at 1:52 pm
“1) Are you guys willing to concede that pricing in bond markets imply an expected long-term inflation rate by investors of about 2.6%? Or are you in denial of this easily verified calculation?”
Speaking for myself I know for a fact that your 2.6% is another irrelevant factor you’re attempting to use as some barometer of truth.
Inflation, in fact,is way past this number.
As an “investor” myself,as are many who invest in 401s and real estate I would be foolish to invest using your guides.
Since you cant seem to fathom the difference between an investments value and “price” the whole conversation with you is rendered moot.
Nor are you able to explain why these investments anchored by stocks are not reflecting true inflation as their values have gone in the opposite direction of inflation.
“1a) Even more amazing: You guys seem in denial about actual (not expected) inflation rates: So are you willing to concede that the rate of price inflation by any broad measure has averaged less than 3% since 2008?”
Awww, sht the fck up. would you ?
That 3% in no way represents the rise in the cost of living.
Any average housewife who has to run a household would call you an idiot.
“2) I offered some simple fundamentals about the current level of the stock market in comparison with previous benchmarks. No response other than bluster.”
Bullsht gets bullsht answers.
You’re fundamental understanding of the market, how its daily numbers effect the economy, is flawed.
“Andy wants to compare stock prices today to their *peak* in 2007, but then wants to compare commodity prices to their *trough* in 2008/9 and then use only commodity prices as his measure of “inflation”. It is like walking with Alice through Wonderland.”
Commodities are the best gauge of projection since they supply the most basic elements of any industry.
You’ve obviously been to Wonderland, or you wouldnt know what its like.
I’ll take your word for it, say hi to Alice.
February 23rd, 2013 at 1:53 am
Andy, I dare you to agree with Micky.
February 23rd, 2013 at 2:49 am
When Gumby and Pokey disagree, always best to get out of the way.
February 23rd, 2013 at 7:01 am
BTT,
Simply regurgitating the State-controlled Media’s ‘news’ that the rate of inflation is less than 3% per year since 2008 is like saying the U-3 unemployment rate is only 7.9%, despite the numbers being fudged by reducing the labor participation pool by 8 million people. Sure, the ultra narrow criteria for what the government bases the inflation rate is about 3%. But they do not include food, gasoline and other essential commodities like cotton or metal ores. The sort of stuff that people use on a daily basis.
As for the bond markets, I suppose you have not been following the race-to-the-bottom being perpetrated by gov’ts like us and China to manipulate our currencies. Heck, if you actually followed the real news this week, then you would know that this issue is one of the prime matters to be discussed at the next G-20 summit.
Nor have you been paying attention as the Federal Reserve loans money to large banks at 0.5% so they can buy bonds paying 3.2%. It is called Quantitative Easing. The banks don’t care if the yields turn out to be too little since thanks to Dodd-Frank, they will be bailed out by Uncle Sugar.
February 23rd, 2013 at 1:17 pm
“Simply regurgitating the State-controlled Media’s ‘news’ that the rate of inflation is less than 3% per year since 2008 is like saying the U-3 unemployment rate is only 7.9%, despite the numbers being fudged by reducing the labor participation pool by 8 million people.”
ITS 2.6 ANDY !!!
GET IT RIGHT !!!
I’ve been told by McCain not to call RPs commenters “idiots”.
So, I frankly dont know what to call anyone who thinks inflation has only increased 2.6 every year for the last 4 years.
February 23rd, 2013 at 1:38 pm
BTT;
“Andy, I dare you to agree with Micky.”
I dare you to actually put forth an argument, in which even if you win, would matter.
I’ll take the risque and assume you’re talking about commodities being linked to inflation via the government.
I’ll simply point you to “ethanol” and the commodity known as “corn” which is subsidized by the fed/you and I. (a cost to taxpayers effecting consumers as much as any retail inflation)
Because of this one example we see everything brought to market reliant on corn seeing rates of inflation way past your bullsht 2.6%.
Andy sees things along the same line as he mentioned other commodities such as cotton and raw mrtals.
Hell, even pork bellies, another commodity id dependent on corn.
The whole grain market is screwed because of that one little government intervention that says we need to fck up everything for alternative fuels that suck,and farmers that have been bribed to not participate in the demands the market truly creates.
As far as the market being some sign of our economy picking up we need to remember that the only reason we see many of these gains in because inflation/raising prices has indeed added to many companies bottom line.
Less hiring, more streamlined and efficient systems have been implemented,less overhead, non essentials have been eliminated from many budgets.
For example.
I have much more cash on hand now, because I’ve been eating spam twice a week instead of once.
February 23rd, 2013 at 1:41 pm
Hi Andy,
My inflation benchmark was the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which certainly include many hundreds of items including the end-products of every commodity that you mention (gas, food, etc.).
Prices paid by consumers (including the housewives that Micky mentions) have averaged less than 3% inflation.
RIGHT? (I am trying to gauge the extent of your denial of basic facts. This is a test that Micky failed.)
But your posts suggest that you prefer we don’t look at what consumers pay for goods and services. OK, let’s look at the Producer Price Index (PPI) series, broad measures that track prices received for goods by farmers, miners, manufacturers, processors, and other producers. Below are compound annual changes through Dec 2012 since Dec 2008 (the first number) and Dec 2007 (the second number). The starting point makes a big difference since prices for many items crashed during 2008. (my calcs from data available at http://www.bls.gov)
PPI for Finished goods 3.5% / 2.6%
PPI for Capital equipment 1.0% / 1.7%
PPI for Intermediate materials 3.8% / 2.5%
PPI for Crude materials 9.3% / 1.4%
So, still generally moderate inflation for goods in recent years, with the exception of crude materials measured from their 2008 trough.
RIGHT?
Andy, it seems you are not really looking for a “broad” measure of inflation, but rather a narrow one that just looks at a few commodities that have recovered their pricing since their 2008 crash, and you want to think that a recovery in revenues to producers (from a crash) is an extraordinary and disastrous thing, and means that “inflation” is out of control.
Regarding Treasury rates, I am still waiting for you to address the difference between the inflation-indexed yield and non-inflation-indexed yield, and what that tell us about the market’s expectations of inflation over the next 30 years.
(Hint: it suggests approximately 2.6%. This is another test that Micky failed.)
February 24th, 2013 at 8:05 am
BTT,
You say I am not looking for a “broad” measure of inflation. I say you are buying a misleading measure of inflation.
http://dailybail.com/home/chart-the-real-inflation-rate-is-11-according-to-cpi-calcula.html
Here is a key quote from the article I am linking you to…
“Since 1980, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has changed the way it calculates the CPI in order to account for the substitution of products, improvements in quality (i.e. iPad 2 costing the same as original iPad) and other things. Backing out more methods implemented in 1990 by the BLS still puts inflation at a 5.5 percent rate and getting worse, according to the calculations by the newsletter’s web site, Shadowstats.com.”
For methodology, you may look here:
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
I am not alone in questioning the true rate of inflation.
http://www.policymic.com/articles/4952/is-america-hiding-its-true-inflation-rate-and-could-the-u-s-be-as-insolvent-as-greece/category_list
“CBS News recently reported that the rate of inflation, as calculated by the American Institute for Economic Research (AIER), clocked in at a whopping 8% over the past year. This number is in stark contrast to the relatively modest inflation rate of 3.1% being reported by the government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics.
“The AIER calculates what they refer to as an Every Day Price Index (EPI). The EPI only looks at the cost of goods the average household buys every month and factors in only those costs which are subject to price fluctuation. For example, mortgages are typically stable over the course of a year so those numbers are ignored. They wouldn’t change unless a person moves or refinances, so they don’t act as a good measure of inflation from month to month.”
So, the issue here is what constitutes a proper method of determining the rate of inflation. The BLS method generally ignores items purchased by consumers on a regular basis, since that is where we feel the actual impact of inflation. Focusing mainly on industries whose prices for products and services are generally locked in for long-term contracts is a ridiculous method. As our Dear Leader would say, we need a “balanced approach.”
February 24th, 2013 at 8:16 am
Yes, Micky,
As Bill Clinton would say, “I feel your pain!” Perhaps we should be more like Captain Renault from “Casablanca.” Instead of calling people idiots, we’ll call them misinformed, since that is more polite.
February 24th, 2013 at 12:54 pm
“Prices paid by consumers (including the housewives that Micky mentions) have averaged less than 3% inflation.
RIGHT? (I am trying to gauge the extent of your denial of basic facts. This is a test that Micky failed.)”
Obviously this morons mom still buys everything for him.
February 24th, 2013 at 2:19 pm
Be funnier than Michelles ass bustin a toilet seat to see BTT hold a town hall meeting and tell everyone inflation has only been 2.6% for the last year.
I’m willing to bet that even a hall full of liberals would toss him out on his ass for expecting anyone to swallow such crap.
I’m sorry, when a conversation takes a turn to debating such a ridiculous position as BTTs its really hard to maintain composure or give any consideration to decent decorum.
Its just plain flat out fckin retarded to say our inflation is at 2.6% in the face of the rise in costs weve seen to most everything from healthcare to gas to food to clothes.
But, I digress…
This moron who thinks hes some intellectual giant doesnt even know the difference between “price” n “value”.
His spewing that I’ve failed some test is purely subjective to his fantasies.
His failure to know the simple basics of an economy’s function are right here in as black n white reality for everyone to read.
BTT;
” No, prices of financial assets do not reflect anything other than moderate expected inflation.”
“Prices” mean nothing in value.
Only a moonbat would think price equals value.
Its like saying “we didnt spend the 85 billion we intended to, so we saved 85 billion.”
“I paid a hundred bucks for that clam!”
Good for you ass hole.
This conversation is over.
February 24th, 2013 at 4:25 pm
People so often complain of the liberal agenda inherent in Hollywood.
I contend their main agenda is making money and Atlas Shrugged is a good example of why “conservative” movies are not made more often.
The first Atlas Shrugged cost $20 million to make and grossed $4.5 million.
Atlas 2 appears to have gone straight-to-video.
I wouldn’t hold my breath for any new movies that are targeted to the right.
Hollywood was founded on one basic principle and it continues to remain true.
You can tell any story as long as it turns a profit.
Now THAT’S capitalism.
February 24th, 2013 at 4:42 pm
Andy: “I am not alone in questioning the true rate of inflation.”
Of course you aren’t. Lot’s of nutty people have been challenging all sorts of statistics for years. Your response proves that you can find them.
Andy has spent hours scrounging the earth trying to find support for Micky’s claim that inflation has soared since Obama took office. And even then the best you can find is someone who says it is 5.5% instead of under 3%. Micky would be furious if he actually read what Andy wrote!
Andy’s first source is the crank ShadowStats, a contributor to the “government is lying about statistics” school of thought that has been around for decades. It is the “unskewed polls” of the economic world. ShadowStats offers an alternate measure of inflation that is not only higher than the official CPI since 2008, but it HAS BEEN AT SIMILARLY HIGH LEVELS since the late 1990s. So what happened to the Obama inflation surge? The disaster of Quantitative Easing? It is nowhere to be seen in the ShadowStats numbers.
The Shadow Stats methods have been debunked, including by the BLS itself back in 2008 (before Obama came along), and for this I will refer Andy to all the Google hits that he ignored while scrounging to find support for the unsupportable.
The second, the “Everyday Price Index” by AIER, is not phony or a product of bad math, but it is the sort of silly measure (like the Big Mac Index) that is designed to get publicity by giving reporters something to write about. It ignores most of a household’s budget to focus on so called “everyday” purchases. This makes it an index driven largely by gasoline prices…
…which is why AIER reported monthly inflation rates as NEGATIVE late last year (after the date of the dumb article cited by Andy). The AIER has calculated that the “everyday” inflation rate was less than 2% during 2012.
Micky, can you please tell us what you think of Andy’s new measure that has inflation less than 2% for all of 2012?
But let’s stick with Andy’s older “whopping 8%” figure. So if 40% of your budget (the “everyday” portion) goes up by 8%, and the remainder is flat, and I adjust your wages by 8% to compensate you for cost of living increases, then you would actually be getting quite a generous bonus, wouldn’t you? Grossly overcompensating you for changes in your cost of living. Right, Andy?
So Andy can find nonsense on the internet. Should we take it seriously? First, has Andy cited these sources before, and will he commit to routinely citing BOTH of them in the future when he blogs on the economy? (In other words, does *Andy* take these sources seriously?)
We can let the private sector speak up here: It is common for parties to enter into long-term contracts with price escalation provisions, and these commonly use the CPI or one of the PPI indices. I challenge Andy to find an example of two private parties entering into a binding legal contract whereby one party agrees to pay money to the other party based on an escalation clause determined by ShadowStats.
I will also refer you to discussions by people who are actually serious about things. e.g. discussions about the chain-weighted CPI as a purported improvement in measuring cost of living adjustments. (It is generally a wee bit lower than the standard CPI.)
I am close to being done here. I imagined I could corner poor Andy into accepting easily-verified reality, and pry him loose from his gratuitous and completely unnecessary embrace of Micky. I am finding that I have been wasting my time (and his).
Micky is beyond help. Last chance Andy… Reality, or something else?
February 24th, 2013 at 4:42 pm
Give it up BTT.
I copied and pasted a list of economic indicators from Bloomberg about a month ago that indicated an improvement in many sectors, including durable goods purchases, manufacturing indexes, housing starts, trade deficits, stock market trends, etc., etc.
They were deemed as being wholly comprised of falsehoods, contrived numbers or incorrect measurements. I don’t mean just one of the indicators; all of them were summarily dismissed as either irrelevant or misleading (those pesky numbers again).
I can only assume that we would apparently be better off if the Dow was at 3500, instead of approaching historic highs.
Oh well, we can still enact a wave of austerity measures and attain that 3500 mark.
I call it the Montgomery Ward approach to business.
February 24th, 2013 at 4:45 pm
“Micky, can you please tell us what you think of Andy’s new measure that has inflation less than 2% for all of 2012?”
“Yeah, well, I went to the story and chicken thighs are twice what they were”.
February 24th, 2013 at 5:17 pm
Buzz,Whatever improvements you and tinker are bangin your chest about are simply not enough to keep up with the many influences on the economy.
The guy selling spam making a killing since Barry took office is not a good indicator.
You give it up, you’re the lost soul who thinks your buddys on golf course, who are makin a killing, are somehow better representations of our economy than the citizen whos fighting still after 4 years to make ends meet.
And no, stop being an ass hole by trying to make argument seem narrow, or picking a few exceptions to the rules as the norm.
I gave many more examples than the 5 lb. box of chicken.
Sadly, its one of the best indicators of a struggling market when what used to be the most nutritious and economincal meat there is, is now inflated to almost a hundred percent of what it was four years ago.
The countrys failing like crazy and all you moonbats seem to be able to do is jump on barrys lap everytime the market goes up a notch when any fckin idjut knows you cant judge the economy by the markets performance in a week, never mind a quarter.
This conversation is over with you as well.
I respect myself too much to wallow in this delusionalsht euphoria with you two
February 24th, 2013 at 7:05 pm
You are talking about trees instead of the forest. If you think the economy is so darn great, talk with your underemployed neighbors and then get your Ostrich heads out of the sand. Are liberals always so aloof and out of touch?
February 24th, 2013 at 7:32 pm
My buddies on the golf course are mostly auto workers. I don’t think they are “making a killing”.
Most of them are making Chryslers.
February 24th, 2013 at 8:32 pm
“My buddies on the golf course are mostly auto workers. I don’t think they are “making a killing”.”
What ? You think cuz I said the conversations over you get to pack us with more bullsht ?
You said your golf course buddys were into auto component and parts sales.
Thats quite a stretch from being union auto workers.
Matter of fact, you and I went into detail over all the facets and tributaries involved in auto parts manufacture and distribution from moped and motorcycle parts to autos themselves.
Along that whole conversation you never said “wait ! I’m talking about auto workers, not the parts industry”
So, all I can say is that so far it seems not one liberal here in the last couple weeks has been able to converse without bullsht being their premise.
BTT tries a divertion to the feds stock figure of 2.6% inflation as being the holy grail of an improving economy, says “price” in stocks determines “value”.
Ron flat out with no reservations whatsoever pulls crap out his ass that sounds like he ate 10 hits of four way window pane and in print puts words in peoples mouths no matter how evident it is thats what hes doing.
And Buzz, I’m ashamed of you, you were that last liberal here that was holding some grain of sanity… til now.
I’m no genius, prolly the most self depreciating guy around here who doesnt try to be what hes not.
But even I know that its really stupid to think everyone is as stupid as you guys think everyone is.
Dont make me go back to that thread and embarass you.
BTW, Chrysler already made its killing.
February 25th, 2013 at 1:12 am
McCain:”You are talking about trees instead of the forest.”
And whose fault is that? YOURS! for hiring guys whose thinking is not anchored by reality.
This thread devolved into a narrow discussion of recent inflation rates because your chief blogger refused to accept that inflation has been rather low in recent years, an easily verified fact. And I imagined that he could be cornered into accepting reality.
And I have almost succeeded. Andy’s two preferred sources for recent inflation give us 5.5% (ShadowStats) and 1.9% (AIER). Averaging these gives us 3.7% as the “consensus” estimate from Andy’s favored sources.
So Andy has already come to agree (we must suppose) that recent inflation is rather moderate and there is no Obama inflationary surge. But he seem incapable of getting there using reality-based reasoning, and his 3.7% consensus estimate is still too high.
February 25th, 2013 at 6:57 am
BTT has really gone off the deep end now. He/She/It claims that WE narrowed the discussion to inflation rates. But BTT began this thread with just a narrow view of the Dow Jones Index way back in Comment #4.
Unemployment is still high, there are fewer new jobs being created. Too few to keep up with population growth. The price of nearly everything consumers buy on a regular basis is double or more since Obama took office. The “forest” is indeed a dark, gloomy and scary place now thanks to Obama. He’s had 4 years to fix things and he has failed. THAT is the bottom-line!
February 25th, 2013 at 7:30 am
Andy:”The price of nearly everything consumers buy on a regular basis is double or more since Obama took office”
I almost had him, then he slipped back into insanity.
Bye folks!
February 25th, 2013 at 8:09 am
Toodles, BTT!
Don’t pay full price for gasoline since it has doubled after Obama and the New Normal arrived. Just tell the clerk at the gas station that he or she is insane because the rate of inflation is only 2.6%.
February 25th, 2013 at 8:15 am
Yeah, you say hes insane but offer no example or contrary evidence.
You’re a pathetic loser.
Just about everything we do buy on a regular basis has in fact almost doubled in the last few years.
But, its become very evident that you dont shop for yourself or live in some controlled environment guarded from normal domestic activities
February 25th, 2013 at 11:09 am
#35 – congratulations for using the word “reality” three times in one comment. Can you do some research and tell us if that is a world record? Especially like the phrase “thinking is not anchored by reality.” Since thinking is real, I’m not quite sure what it means but I do recognize that liberals are the masters of vocabulary so there is nothing more to do but admire.
February 25th, 2013 at 3:59 pm
“And whose fault is that? YOURS! for hiring guys whose thinking is not anchored by reality.”
These things are said by the same people who call themselves “best thinking thinkers”.
February 25th, 2013 at 10:23 pm
McCain: Congratulations yourself! I notice that you declined to defend Andy’s claim that “The price of nearly everything consumers buy on a regular basis is double or more since Obama took office.” Wise fellow.
OK, Andy, I’ll bite. Let’s take a few “regular basis” items that you are describing. I’ll even give you gasoline and chickens, and leave out mortgage, just to give you an unfair head start.
Home:
Rent
Natural gas bill
Phone bill
Electric bill
Cable bill
Property tax
Child Care:
Pre-school “tuition”
Pampers
Gerber baby food
Visit to orthodontist
Groceries:
Chicken thighs
Marie Callender’s Chicken Pot Pie
Bread
Milk
Eggs
Potatoes
Campbell’s Tomato Soup
Starkist tuna
Kellogg’s Corn Flakes
Green Giant Frozen Peas
Skippy Peanut Butter
Tropicana frozen orange juice
Three Musketeers Bar
Fritos Corn Chips
Clothes:
Wrangler jeans
Reebok sneakers
Jockey underwear
Hanes Panty Hose
Personal Care:
Charmin toilet paper
Gillette disposable razor
Dove soap
Supercuts haircut
Bayer aspirin
Trojans condoms
Night out on the town:
Movie ticket
Big Mac
Domino’s Sausage Pizza
Heineken on tap
Transportation
Gasoline
Jiffy Lube oil change
Auto insurance
Bus fare
Christmas Presents
Bicycle!
Barbie!
Slinky!
Tyco train!
Monopoly!
La-Z-Boy Recliner!
Volkswagan!
This list seems to offer a wide assortment of things that people spend money on. You said prices of “nearly everything” that was “regular basis” doubled in the last four years! You gonna stick with that?
P.S.: Andy’s Everyday Price Index was up 1.9% in 2012.
February 25th, 2013 at 11:12 pm
BTT, it may surprise you to hear that I don’t actually read every comment on my websites, and besides, the two of you are perfectly capable of carrying on (and on) without me “defending” either of you.
I will say this. Income levels have sunk 5% since Obama took office. Yeah yeah source here, whatever.
Inflation is still low overall (that will change!), but that is mainly because the cost of housing is way down. Prices on other necessities are up, such as oil, food, etc. If you bought a home ten years ago you are fucked under Obama. If you bought last year you did well on the misery of others.
Meanwhile taxes are up in most states and at the federal level. And the unemployment rate has been at historical levels for a sustained period of time.
So to really see how people are doing you would consider taxes, inflation, unemployment, and income levels, and in doing so you will conclude that overall, people are hurting a lot under Obama. That’s pretty obvious, and not really debatable whatever minute point you and Andy are arguing.
February 26th, 2013 at 7:33 am
@BTT,
YAWN!!!
Okay, here is a nice list of a wide range of items, including rent, and how prices have increased since 2008. While not all have doubled, we are talking finished products, not basic commodities, such as rice, corn, etc.
http://www.thepeoplehistory.com/pricebasket.html
For a general commodity price index, a chart here shows an average which covers all of the basic industries:
http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=commodity-price-index&months=300
This chart shows that the index was at 102.51 in January 2009 and as of January 2013 was at 187.19. Not quite doubled but close enough to hang my hat on. As for finished products, like Lay-Z-Boy recliners, etc., the price to consumers can be adjusted by improvements in manufacturing technology, or slashing jobs, salaries and benefits, in order to keep prices down. So your attempt to ensnare me with that approach is faulty to say the least, BTT.
February 26th, 2013 at 9:11 am
I got two matching Lay-Z-Boys for sale if any “non-liberals” are interested.
Camel colored,kinda like a plush tight woven terrycloth, hardly ever used, never pi$$ed on.
If you live on the mainland they’re yours for free, just pay the freight.
If you’re here in the isles I’ll trade for a handful of buds.
Yeah, you heard me right.
Only non-liberals need inquire.
The market dropped yesterday, day before and before… and non of you have a damn thing to say.
But good God almighty as soon as the market jumps a point you’ll be sure as hell ready to throw in our face.
So I can only assume you’re doing well enough where you dont need any favors from anyone.
February 26th, 2013 at 9:21 am
Chicken thighs just went up a quarter this week.
Oh well, not to worry, if cannibalism ever becomes a part of this “new normal” we could all live off Michelles gigantic massivass (new word) for years.
Hell, they could divy that animal up and trade MO butt on the market.
And I can guarantee you that fcker will inflate (or grow) at more than 2.6% a year
February 26th, 2013 at 1:09 pm
It would be a little silly to comment on the daily movements of the market. I think BTT was referring to what has been a rather long bull market over the last few years.
I mean it is up 85 right now, but that is irrelevant and most of movements of the last week have been motivated by news emanating from Europe.
Ok, I gotta go, I think chicken is on sale at the local grocery store.
February 27th, 2013 at 12:11 am
Hi Andy,
Thank you for your link (#44) to the nice People History Price Basket. It is informal, but for what it is worth it shows hardly anything doubling in price since 2008. The median increase is about 25% (6% compound annual) by my calculation (yes, I did that) for the food and household items listed.
So I am a little confused, you could have offered this as a concession that I have been right all along, but your tone seems triumphant. So I am confused.
(Nice, but maybe biased towards inflation, since the fellow *seems* to have added new items over time in response to price increase for that item.)
(Emphasis on “informal”: he has the price of a house growing by 30% last year. Homeowners should be so lucky.)
(Micky will be happy to learn that the price of CHICKEN SOUP has declined since 2008.)
February 27th, 2013 at 1:07 am
Andy: “As for finished products, like Lay-Z-Boy recliners, etc., the price to consumers can be adjusted by improvements in manufacturing technology, or slashing jobs, salaries and benefits, in order to keep prices down. So your attempt to ensnare me with that approach is faulty to say the least, BTT.”
Hmmm…. Who do you suppose produces the commodities that you offer in your Commodity Price Index? Elves? No, dear fellow, they are produced by companies using technology with the aid of their employees who have jobs, salaries, and benefits.
If your ideal is to find an index of goods that are produced without technology or labor, then you are probably limited to AIR, SUNSHINE, and RAIN…
…$0 cost in 2008, $0 in 2013. No increase in price in last four years!
Surely the CPI is a more meaningful index of the cost of living for the average person in the U.S., which is what it is very carefully and comprehensively constructed to do.
Finished products, Andy! People actually buy those.
February 27th, 2013 at 7:42 am
As usual, BTT, you misunderstand nearly everything…,
“Surely the CPI is a more meaningful index of the cost of living for the average person in the U.S., which is what it is very carefully and comprehensively constructed to do.”
The problem with the CPI is that it is not a true representation of the market. Just this week, Obama has been talking about further “adjustments” to calculating the CPI in order to save a few billion dollars in not updating COLA pay outs to Social Security recipients. The CPI, like many other government indexes, are highly politicized measurements, routinely manipulated.
February 27th, 2013 at 10:04 am
“Finished products, Andy! People actually buy those.”
Thats exactly what weve been telling you.
Good to see that you finally agree everything you’ve said in the last week is bullsht.
What the average person pays for the average most popular products is a better representation of inflation than all the screwy govt. sources you keep trying to use as some example of gospel truth.
You can fly 2.6% inflation around all you want.
Its just not true for nearly every household trying to make ends meet.
Even without considering the shrinking value of the dollar,declining incomes and additional taxation the level of a household income buying power is still strained more than 2.6%
Next thing you know you’ll try to tell us is GM is doing great.
February 27th, 2013 at 7:10 pm
Hi Micky: “Thats exactly what weve been telling you.”
So then can you tell us what has happened to the price you charge your customers for your prepared chicken dishes?
So far all you have mentioned is the price of one raw input, chicken thighs (and ignored all the other costs of your business like labor, rent, utilities, flatware, kitchen supplies, franchise fees, etc.). But what has happened in recent years to the price of the finished product, what your customers pay?
February 27th, 2013 at 7:37 pm
Hi Andy: “The problem with the CPI is that it is not a true representation of the market. Just this week, Obama has been talking about further “adjustments” to calculating the CPI in order to save a few billion dollars in not updating COLA pay outs to Social Security recipients. The CPI, like many other government indexes, are highly politicized measurements, routinely manipulated.”
No, never happened. Changes in these indices occur infrequently after lengthy study and public discussion. That is part of the reason they are widely trusted.
You are perhaps confused about a proposal to use a DIFFERENT existing index for purposes of the SSI COLA adjustment (the chain-weighted CPI instead of the fixed-weight CPI). The chain-weighted CPI has been published since 2002 and you can find it in the same press release as the traditional fixed-weight CPI.
February 27th, 2013 at 8:03 pm
Exactly what part of this entire thread was BTT wrong about?
He merely cited a a number of standard indeces that everyone uses and he has been told for a week that he is somehow wrong.
February 27th, 2013 at 8:04 pm
Those pesky numbers again.
February 27th, 2013 at 8:50 pm
“So far all you have mentioned is the price of one raw input, chicken thighs (and ignored all the other costs of your business like labor, rent, utilities, flatware, kitchen supplies, franchise fees, etc.). But what has happened in recent years to the price of the finished product, what your customers pay?”
I’m not in business you fcking moron.
Can you read at all ?
Does your ass not hurt from pulling so much crap out it ?
My reference was to the grocery store.
And also, you lying sack of sht…scroll up.
I mentioned many many mant more items besides chicken, you ass hole.
For the record, I am a professional chef whos worked some of the finest houses in the country.
At 18 I had my assoc. science in rest. mngmnt. and started at Fraunces Tavern across from the NYSE.
I’ve been a corporate trouble shooter, undercover as a waiter for chain franchises such as Grace corp. in Ca.
Anyone in the restaurant business who purchases product at retail outlets is an idiot.
Were done, “FINALLY”, you’ve pushed the limits to being the epitome of a big fat blatant full of sht liar.
Its quite disgusting.
You’re a bad person
February 27th, 2013 at 8:56 pm
“He merely cited a a number of standard indeces that everyone uses and he has been told for a week that he is somehow wrong.”
No, not everyone uses it.
It doesnt apply to the true rate of inflation.
The working middle class in no way is wallowing in 2.6 inflation.
Its a bullsht arbitrary number that does not reflect the true rise in cost of most everything June Cleaver has to buy.
Any fcking id**t knows this.
Inflation at the origin such as wholesale market is different than what the retail public is experiencing … wise up.
February 27th, 2013 at 10:15 pm
“Any fcking id**t knows this.”
As always
February 28th, 2013 at 7:22 am
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/07/consumerpriceindex.asp#axzz2MCQaX3Yf
I guess BTT either forgot, was unaware, or has a convenient case of Obama-nesia since the CPI (which BTT claims is rarely altered) was altered in 2009 by the Obama administration. Currently, the BLS releases stats on what is officially called the C-CPI, or ‘Chained’ Consumer Price Index. There are even different flavors of this, such as C-CPI-W oriented more so for Clerical Workers, and C-CPI-U for urban consumers.
Of course, the last major overhaul of the CPI methodology prior to Obama was in 2006, so we can all blame George W. Bush for that.
February 28th, 2013 at 8:40 am
Ne;
“Any fcking id**t knows this.”
Buzz;
“As always”
Typical liberal
Cant hang so they bring up trivial sht.
You gotta lotta nerve tellin me “as always” when its always you and other liberals that cant accept the basic truths were surrounded by and “as always” end up totally fabricating crap out your ass or obfuscate to distractions such as ones vocsabulary.
I said “any fckin idiot”
Big fckin deal.
How does that even begin to be half as offensive as this dickhead BTT making a completely false representation of anything thats been said by me ?
I cant say fckin idiot but he can lie thru his frickin teeth ?
Instead of calling me out or bringing attention to such stupid sht such as a couple words representing ones opinion why dont call the ass hole out for being a big fat liar ?
You guys make me sick
February 28th, 2013 at 8:58 am
Read 51 and then 52 and tell me this guy is not either incredibly dumb, really high, or just about one of the most dishonest people around.
I explicitly used the word “household” in my reference.
So, someone, please tell me why hes accusing me of failing to include other costs in my restaurant ?
February 28th, 2013 at 9:43 am
“I guess BTT either forgot, was unaware, or has a convenient case of Obama-nesia since the CPI (which BTT claims is rarely altered) was altered in 2009 by the Obama administration. Currently, the BLS releases stats on what is officially called the C-CPI, or ‘Chained’ Consumer Price Index. There are even different flavors of this, such as C-CPI-W oriented more so for Clerical Workers, and C-CPI-U for urban consumers.”
Chained CPI. Isn’t that what BTT mentioned a few comments earlier?
I am still not sure what BTT said that was incorrect.
He cites numerous indices that emanate from the government and is treated as if he “made it up”.
Cost of housing goes down, gasoline goes up, cost of borrowing goes down (which is why every company and country should be borrowing right now, regardless of their balance sheet), some food costs go up (which is certainly linked in many cases to the price of fuel).
Same as it ever was. Well except for some years ago when a 17% mortgage was the norm. Well except when the prime rate was 21.5% in 1980 (and yes, I know who was in the White House at the time). Why were rates so high? It was an effort to curb runaway inflation that was due to fuel costs. Yeah, again, same as it ever was.
February 28th, 2013 at 10:07 am
Clearly what I meant by “as always” is that you guys have been going back and forth for a week and at no point did Andy, Patrick, BTT or myself ever become disrespectful. You, on the other hand, decided to utilize that special license you have been issued that allows you to call people idiots and morons while hurling obscenities (this is where you engage in some ridiculous rationalization that he “deserved” it).
Respect, Micky. It isn’t that hard and obscenity-laden insults only lessen any credibility you may have enjoyed.
If someone that has never been on this site before read this entire thread, who do you think would be taken seriously? The guy citing standard indices or the guy inferring that any commenter that disagrees is a f**ckin idiot?
They should have voting on this site. Even though it is obvious that most people on this site lean hard right, I believe BTT would emerge as the victor since he literally “stayed on point”, while staying out of the mud.
You must be fun at parties.
February 28th, 2013 at 10:55 am
So, you’re not going to call out BTT on his humongous blatant lies but you’re still going to worry about a vocabulary issued his way, even though he deserves to be called much worse ?
Nothing new here, ass usual.
“I believe BTT would emerge as the victor since he literally “stayed on point”, while staying out of the mud.”
Another lie.
His deviation from costs to domestics and households to this being about some imaginary restaurant I’m running/own is anything but “on point”.
“You must be fun at parties.”
Sorry, I dont do the white whine sniff each others farts thing.
If you ever did come to one of my parties, you’d think you’d died n gone to heaven.
I’m a pro chef knowledgeable in many cuisines and libations and politics are not allowed to be discussed.
But, if you did walk around telling people that I said something I did not say, with malicious intent, you’d be grateful if profanity was the only thing you got hit with.
If you’re retarded you’ll get a pass.
February 28th, 2013 at 11:19 am
Again, the main component of what BTT wrote were merely government statistics that have been the standard for years.
Rather than simply accept those numbers, you guys spent a week trying to debunk them.
BTT didn’t write them or compile them, he merely cited them.
That deserved a round of name calling?
Respect Micky, even for those you may disagree with, is an admirable quality.
Many people post on this site, but as I said, you must have that “special license”.
Disagree with you once = wise up
Twice = moron
Three times = idiot, liar
Four times = a$$hole, f*ckin liar
I can only assume this is really your site.
It is funny, no one else does this and I read comments on many other websites and I don’t see this level of disrespect from anyone.
By the way, I don’t care about swearing, in fact it is common amongst my friends and myself, you know, at the fictional country club you think I am at every day. I simply don’t think it belongs on a website of people that have never met and are merely offering differing opinions.
It is as if you are typing with a ball peen hammer. I remember you have stated that you swear for “emphasis”. You think what you say is “emphasized” by name calling and obscenities? Did you ever consider it has the exact opposite effect?
Go ahead, dish up another round of rationalization.
February 28th, 2013 at 12:17 pm
“Again, the main component of what BTT wrote were merely government statistics that have been the standard for years.
Rather than simply accept those numbers, you guys spent a week trying to debunk them.”
Another lie.
No one here has denied the governments applied numbers as existent.
The argument that both you and him are either too stupid to understand, or being intentionally ignorant of is that 2.6% does not represent the level of inflation at the retail level for Americans households.
Everything has gone up, Andy and I submitted lists of everyday items and their rates of inflation that do not reflect the governments number of 2.6%
I’m not going to touch on that whiney list of yours.
Bottom line is this…
Whats worse ? Whats more disrespectful ? Lying, plagiarism,putting words in ones mouth, disingenuous responses and claims, not answering questions, or calling someone a name ?
I hate fcking liars, and so should everyone.
Now, once again.
One can challenge the governments numbers in many ways for many reasons, the 2.6% is debatable in that theres a possibility for error by many means.
There is no debate over mt point which was made in using household budgets as an example.
Even you inadvertently acknowledged this when you said you were going to “the market to buy chicken thighs because they were on sale.
So, are you going to call out the liar ?
Or defend him by bringing up the feds 2.6% again ?
A back n forth on accuracy,application and relevance of the numbers BTT submitted is debatable. Thats what we do here, debate is encouraged.
Theres no debate about what I said.
Its in black n white time stamped and plain as day for all to see.
As Andy said in the very beginning;
” If you think the inflation rate over the next 30 years will average out to just 2.6%, then I suggest you buy plenty.”
BTT stands behind that prediction.. DO YOU ?
Has the last 4 years seen that rate ?
If you speak to Obama lap dogs, your buddies on the golf course who are either auto workers or in the parts business(we’ll never know because you lied about their professions)or BTT they’ll support that number.
If you speak to average middle class Americans,and tell them their rate of inflation is 2.6%, who are trying for the last 4 years to make ends meet they’ll probably tell you you’re stupid or flat out lying.
You want respect ?
Try giving it.
Lying, trying to apply irrelevance,submitting strawman red herring arguments, being disingenuous is not how I define respect.
Obama does not know what hes doing.
The sooner you,BTT and liberals admit this the better of we’ll all be.
I’m not holding my breath.
Matter of fact I’m gonna go smoke a joint.
Everytime I think liberals couldnt fck this country up any more than they have guys like you and BTT make me realize just how fcked we all are.
February 28th, 2013 at 8:31 pm
Hi Micky,
I hereby apologize for mischaracterizing your occupation and and also for misunderstanding your obsession with chickens. You said something months ago that somehow gave me the (wrong) impression that you ran a restaurant.
And yes, early on you did mention some other items. I am curious about your criteria for selecting them? Why didn’t you select Campbell’s Tomato Soup, Nabisco Shredded Wheat, restaurant meals, day care, haricuts, auto insurance, RENT, or other common items in household budgets? What did your items have in common that made them relevant for a discussion of inflation, but that these other sorts of items somehow lacked?
(I suspect you chose them because their price had soared lately, but maybe you had a more honorable reason for selecting them, and I would like to know what it was.)
(BTW: you have claimed several times that I said that the inflation rate has been 2.6% in recent years, and just now you claim that I predicted that rate for the future. I have taken for granted that you were having trouble following the conversation, not that you were a “liar”, and I did not want to stop to explain a calculation that I figured you couldn’t understand anyway.)
February 28th, 2013 at 8:47 pm
Hi Andy: Are you still digging or have you backed off a bit? I can’t tell. Digging won’t work because you were wrong on a data-rich subject. Here are the 2012 inflation rates for the alternative inflation indices for that you have offered up so far:
ShadowStats 5.5%
Everyday Price Index 1.9%
Commodity Price Index (0.9%)
Average 2.2%
This “consensus” of your indices is not so very different from the 1.7% CPI rate for last year.
I am not sure whether you offered the IMF’s Commodity Price Index as a joke or not. I made a similar point in #22 above (your index is higher than it was in January 2009, but it is lower than it was in mid 2008 before prices crashed. So raw material prices recovered from a crash, along with the profits of the folks who make those materials.)
You are using an index of international commodity prices, weighted by their share of global cross-border trade. So it gives over 50% weight to petroleum, and over 60% to energy, it doesn’t includes U.S. coal but includes Australian and South African coal shipped to Japan, etc. No items that any consumer actually buys, and certainly nothing to “hang your hat on.”
But in case you plan to use this index going forward, you might note that it has been declining for the last two years. So, it must be a bad measure of cost of living, since all other attempts at measuring that show rising prices, not declining.
February 28th, 2013 at 9:06 pm
…. and thank you, Andy, for the link to the Investopedia site. I knew before I got through the first paragraph that it was written by someone who did not know what they were talking about when they said the the CPI was used to calculate real GDP. (No, that’s the GDP deflator, a broader measure of inflation that is generally lower than the CPI.)
And my suspicions were confirmed when I saw that the author treated the Shadowstats guy as a serious source, rather as a Dick Morris-like crank.
(BTW: The GDP deflator is another independent confirmation that inflation rates have been moderate in recent years.)
February 28th, 2013 at 9:26 pm
@ BTT
Why didnt I use Cambells soup, Nabisco ?
Because genius, the products I and Andy mentioned would be sufficient for anyone but you to understand the point we were making.
This is yet another mis-characterization by you is parallel to your bullsht question of Andy on the powers of congress to bully the prez “can they make him eat brocolli” ?
Also, I understand perfectly well that the 2.6% number represents future inflation.
That number came out months ago, today is the future.
I dont doubt for one second that whoever came up with that number believes it as much as you do and that its used as a gauge in establishing market predictions.
But it still does not reflect inflation at the retail consumers end nor is it accurate as Andy submitted per actual data and real time inflation.
Yes, I’ve run many restaurants and kitchens and know for a fact that the price of poultry is an excellent barometer of the wholesale foods market in which mark ups transpire be it a menu or a retail shelf.
Grace corp being a huge conglomerate has much more volume buying power than the mom n pop restaurants struggling today to keep up with inflation, lower traffic and lower bill totals because people are scrimping.
2.6% inflation buy your presentation in the big picture is irrelevant to middle class consumers, those who the prez says he cares so much about.
I accept your apology and acknowledgements.
Please, stop making it a habit to fog the conversation with obfuscating bullsht just to hide your shortages.
If you truly believe these numbers you espoused represent future inflation at any level or sector then you’re batter and more optimistic man than I am.
But, you probably believe you own a bridge or two also.
February 28th, 2013 at 9:40 pm
Must be nice to believe the numbers the government feeds us.
They told me three years ago my healthcare costs would recede, they lied.
They told me a trillion dollar bailout would solve everything.
Today, theres no improvement and they’re still bailing out failure and that figure is way past one trillion dollars.
They told me, middle income white picket fence 2.3 children, that my taxes would not increase one dime.
That was a lie.
They said they’d spend less but only after chopping future spending numbers in half.
Thats called a “flim flam”, better known as deception, or a lie.
The economy sucks, my money is worth less, my needs all cost more and my 401K IRA SS and investments are worth less.
Every time Bernanke prints another buck the market grows artificially and comes that much closer to bursting bubble
Thats all I need to know to not defend this idiot in office and his economic policies.
March 1st, 2013 at 7:39 am
Hi Andy: Are you still digging or have you backed off a bit? I can’t tell. Digging won’t work because you were wrong on a data-rich subject. Here are the 2012 inflation rates for the alternative inflation indices for that you have offered up so far:
ShadowStats 5.5%
Everyday Price Index 1.9%
Commodity Price Index (0.9%)
Average 2.2%
This “consensus” of your indices is not so very different from the 1.7% CPI rate for last year. But your commodity index is down for the last two years: negative inflation lately?
March 1st, 2013 at 7:51 am
Yes, Micky, funny is it not that the same crowd who buys anything the Obama administration as truth were the same who claim that everything GW Bush said was a lie. Just in the last 72 hours a whole batch of Obama claims have been proven to be lies by none other than the Washington Post. Like Artie Duncan saying how pink slip notices were already being issued in West Virginia because of sequester spending cuts. My favorite is how Obama resurrected the corporate jet tax breaks as the GAO reports about how the Justice Dept abuses the taxpayers goodwill flying its officials around in corporate jets on non-mission related flights.
March 1st, 2013 at 8:07 am
No, BTT, I have not conceded anything. You just plain bore me at this point. First you claim that the Dow’s recent gains are a sign of Obama’s economic policies succeeding. Then you fail to grasp how the DJIA is a futures market, driven more by the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies. If you bothered to actually examine the line graphs on some of the pages I linked, it is easy to see that we are in an inflationary mode since the summer of 2009. And, of course, you totally ignore the big picture, relying on phony numbers supplied by the BLS.
The basic premise that the government uses multiple measurements to calculate inflation, then goes with the friendliest result under the umbrella of the CPI proves your lack of understanding on the subject. Not to mention the long term impact of all of the cash the Fed has injected into the money supply. You probably even think Obama created 2 million jobs or whatever number he is throwing about these days while the actual number of net job increase is around 28,000 after four long years. Barely enough to cover five days of population growth.
No, none of your manipulations have succeeded, BTT. Even funnier is how you refuse to discuss how gasoline prices have yet to dip below $3 a gallon since Obama took office and now is at the highest costs during February ever. I don’t know about you, but I suspect that 90% of the population spends more each week on gasoline than they do on Campbell’s soup!
So bless your heart, you just keep on trying!
March 1st, 2013 at 10:30 am
Andy:
“Yes, Micky, funny is it not that the same crowd who buys anything the Obama administration as truth were the same who claim that everything GW Bush said was a lie.”
Yup, and heres the proof
Andy: “I am not alone in questioning the true rate of inflation.”
BTT:
Of course you aren’t. Lot’s of nutty people have been challenging all sorts of statistics for years. Your response proves that you can find them.”
Riiiiiiiiight, its “nutty” to challenge statistics.
Hey, BTT, 4 out of 5 dentist recommend Crest.
Obama, the stimulus, created or saved 2.7 million million jobs.
The amount of people collecting unemployment represents unemployment rates.
All the statistics backing global warming are correct, will be correct, or were correct.
Every economist who ever challenged a stat is nutty.
Obviously BTT has no idea of just how stupid this belief sounds.
He did the same thing with McCain last week by dragging out a thread forever based on one stupid question,
“can congress make the prez eat brocolli” ?
When all McCain was trying to point out was that at some points in history Congress has had the ability to force a presidents hand.
This is the kind of kid that yanks the wings off of flies.
Fck him, hes an ass hole with no productive point.
March 1st, 2013 at 7:00 pm
More Andy: “And, of course, you totally ignore the big picture, relying on phony numbers supplied by the BLS.”
What have I ignored? A calculated recent inflation using the three (flawed) indices that you have put forward, and showed that they indicated inflation in 2012 averaged 2.2%.
So I did not ignore your evidence. Have you offered anything else other than anecdotes about gas and chickens and a few other items? I really want to know about it.
March 1st, 2013 at 8:34 pm
“This is the kind of kid that yanks the wings off of flies.
Fck him, hes an ass hole with no productive point.”
Somehow, regardless of the subject matter, this is the inevitable result.
You, BTT, are ultimately guilty of something akin to repeatedly saying that 2 + 2 just might equal 4.
March 1st, 2013 at 8:51 pm
On another note, the opinion of the far-right may losing all relevance.
This is purely anecdotal (which means it is not “evidence” of anything other than an observation), but I was at a gathering last night where there were a lot of people in the 20’s and young 30’s.
When politics comes up they don’t even consider anyone on the right. I don’t mean they disagree with their platforms, they really don’t “consider” them.
As a new group of them continues to reach voting age, the GOP may be in a zero sum game.
They keep fixating on minorities (or pandering as Hannity must have had a directive to include a black conservative on every night), but the more dangerous trend is that they have lost the young (the last election results bear that out). As an aside I love what tonight’s guest, Dr. Carson, mentioned tonight when he was discussing what happens when people ask him for a copy of his speech, “I don’t have a copy because I don’t use a teleprompter”. Subtle.
If the GOP fails to reinvent themselves, they will simply become the party of the gerrymandered House and will simply be viewed as a group of obstructionists.
I gained a lot more knowledge watching Bloomberg and Gates on Charlie Rose last night. As they stated, the U.S. economy is not a household or a small company economy and the deficit is the least of our problems. They went on to describe why, but I know none of you are interested in the opinion of billionaires that obviously have no insight on such matters.
March 1st, 2013 at 9:47 pm
“You, BTT, are ultimately guilty of something akin to repeatedly saying that 2 + 2 just might equal 4″
Hardly, how can you defend this crap ?
The 2.6 rate of future inflation is speculative, at best.
2+2 is not speculative.
“I gained a lot more knowledge watching Bloomberg and Gates on Charlie Rose last night. As they stated, the U.S. economy is not a household or a small company economy and the deficit is the least of our problems. They went on to describe why, but I know none of you are interested in the opinion of billionaires that obviously have no insight on such matters.”
No, you’re just conflicting the lefts position that its actually the billionaires who are the ones responsible for everyone’s misery.
Now for some strange reason, these liberal butt munchers are investing in the advice of the most evil component of our economy.
Nice try, but ts your president whos invested in class warfare defining the middle class as his special interest, yet, for another strange reason, those middle income households are now, according to you, an irrelevance to the economy.
With this latest revelation its pretty funny when you say the right needs to change its message, re-brand itself,reinvent itself… when yours and the lefts stories are all over the place reinventing themselves at the most convenient times but with constantly conflicting and hypocritical statements.
Barry,a couple weeks ago
“I dont want to play a blame game”
Today;
“Its the republicans fault”
Barry introduces the sequester into legislation.
Then says to the world “it’ll never happen”
Then says “the legislation is dumb”
Today, he signed it into law.
Sorry Buzz.. you got no bizzwacks talking about anyone changing their message
March 1st, 2013 at 9:58 pm
I cant pass this one up
“As a new group of them continues to reach voting age, the GOP may be in a zero sum game.
They keep fixating on minorities ”
HAH!
Are you serious ?
Really ?
No fcking way ?
If it werent for the lefts fixation on minorities they’d have NOTHING TO DO !!!
Thanks for the laughs bro
March 1st, 2013 at 10:11 pm
I still cant get over that Buzz
When the right listens to the billionaires they’re kowtowing to special interests groups.
When a bunch of liberals do it they’re becoming enlightened and informed.
OH–MY–GOD…
Thats just too freekin funny dude !
March 2nd, 2013 at 4:47 am
Andy: “First you claim that the Dow’s recent gains are a sign of Obama’s economic policies succeeding.”
Nope, never said that. I said the stock market was high, and that probably had something to do with such facts as corporate profits at an all time high, GDP at an all time high, inflation low, interest rates low, and employment expanding. Didn’t say anything about politics or policy, nor would I now.
Andy: “Then you fail to grasp how the DJIA is a futures market, driven more by the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies.”
I failed to grasp it because it isn’t a futures market, but an index of spot prices that reflect beliefs about the future. You retorted taht you really meant that you could trade futures contracts on the DJIA, and I’ll retort that you can also trade “double bear” futures that always move in the opposite direction of the DJIA. Both are “future markets” in your sense, but they can’t both be driven up by inflation at the same time. So saying “futures market” doesn’t seem to get you where you want to go, and therefore you need to expand your theory a little more and we’ll see if it makes any sense. So far, no. Does your theory have a name? I am curious.
March 2nd, 2013 at 4:53 am
Andy: “If you bothered to actually examine the line graphs on some of the pages I linked, it is easy to see that we are in an inflationary mode since the summer of 2009.”
uh, no. Your graph shows that the IMF’s Commodity Price Index fell by over 50% in the last few months of 2008 as the economy fell, mostly recovered during the next two years, and has been declining modestly for the last two years. Did I get that right?
March 2nd, 2013 at 5:35 am
Andy: “Even funnier is how you refuse to discuss how gasoline prices have yet to dip below $3 a gallon since Obama took office and now is at the highest costs during February ever. I don’t know about you, but I suspect that 90% of the population spends more each week on gasoline than they do on Campbell’s soup!”
When did I ignore gasoline prices? I insist that gasoline must be considered in any meaningful measure of inflation. Chickens? I INSIST ON IT! Also soup, breakfast cereal, beer, rent, daycare, auto insurance, pants, shoes, raincoats, heating bills, cable bills, education, and lots of other stuff. Right?
That is why we evidence-oriented types like the CPI index to measure household spending, because it considers many, many items large and small, and weights them according to their share in household budgets, in a laborious, carefully-constructed manner. Widely respected, widely accepted, widely used.
Do you have an alternative measure of cost of living that you are willing to stick with? It seems no, but maybe I missed something.
Did I mention yet that the “consensus” rate of inflation for 2012 for the three indices that you have offered so far is 2.2%? Let me know if I forgot to mention that.
Your latest inflation benchmark is mostly a petroleum index. Petroleum is over 50% of the weight in the IMF’s Commodity Price Index, since its weights are based on share of international cross border trade); it has Australian and South African coal shipped to Japan, but no U.S. coal, it gives more weight to natural gas shipped from Russia to European countries than to North American natural gas. Are you sure you want to used this to measure cost of living? Not a single consumer product in there, and no services whatsoever.
March 2nd, 2013 at 8:53 am
Well, BTT, you forgot that one of the links I provided has other metrics for inflation at 9% and 11% per year, which is probably much closer to The Truth. But, as stated previously, you are missing the Big Picture.
Even if your 2.6% rate is correct, and I am NOT saying that it is, you fail to consider that GDP growth is less than that, so we are losing ground. Add to that the Commerce Dept reporting how incomes fell 3.6% and that sinks us even further thanks to Obama.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323978104578333961864183212.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
March 2nd, 2013 at 10:10 am
Andy, you’ve fallen prey to the BTT “paradox jerk off”
Hes just takin you in circles to avoid the conclusion.
Buzz helps to confirm this by reiterating that all BTT did was state a statistical fact that future inflation is predicted at 2.6% by a government entity, claiming that this departmental speculation of futures is as undeniable and guaranteed as 2+2=4
As weve pointed out to these two blockheads, theres no denying this number exists in “mention” but does not reflect “truth” as its the past and present which is “truth” and the most reliable guide you can have.
If I ran this place, I’d cut his mic, hes just spewing gobblygook in an attempt to make it appear as if theres more to debate.
Hes desperate, end his misery.
March 2nd, 2013 at 11:34 am
Hi Andy:
“Even if your 2.6% rate is correct, and I am NOT saying that it is, you fail to consider that GDP growth is less than that, so we are losing ground.”
Nice try. When I first realized you would deny our low rate of inflation, I knew that you were about to get your clock cleaned. Now you want to change the subject. Do you have a source for general inflation levels that you are willing to stick with? Please repost it if you do, because I’ve only seen the three that gave me a 2.2% average for 2012 (and it is not at all clear that you still like even these three). When you repost, please be helpful and share with us the 2012 number.
And you guys keep misunderstanding the 2.6% number as historical:
If you seek credible measurements of general U.S. inflation for the last four years, here are some alternatives: 1) basic CPI change from December-to-December; 2) same for the “chain weighted” CPI; 3) basic CPI measured as an annual average (same index as 1, but I also give it this way to make it more comparable to the GDP deflators); 4) the GDP deflator; and 5) the deflator for the Personal Consumption Expenditures component of GDP. (Data comes from http://www.bls.gov and http://www.bea.gov, my apologies if I transcribed incorrectly.)
Percentage change in price index for 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012
1) CPI fixed (Dec-to-Dec.) 2.7%, 1.5%, 3.0%, 1.7%
2) CPI chain (Dec-to-Dec) 2.5% 1.3% 2.9% 1.6%
3) CPI fixed (year-to-year) -0.4% 1.6% 3.2% 2.1%
4) GDP deflator (year-to-year) 0.9% 1.3% 2.1% 1.8%(prelim.)
5) PCE deflator (year-to-year) 0.1% 1.9% 2.4% 1.8%(prelim.)
These measure different things, but are all broad-based measures of average changes in the price of things in the U.S. and all include final products bought by people. Below is the total compound increase over these four years for each measurement, followed by the compound annual rate in parenthesis (all are my calculations, apologies again for any errors).
1) CPI fixed (Dec-to-Dec.) 9.2% (2.2%)
2) CPI chain (Dec-to-Dec) 8.6% (2.1%)
3) CPI fixed (year-to-year) 6.6% (1.6%)
4) GDP deflator (year-to-year) 6.2% (1.5%)
5) PCE deflator (year-to-year) 6.3% (1.6%)
So, 6% to 9% TOTAL increase in average prices over the last four years depending on how you count, or a compound annual rate of 1.5% to 2.2%. I’ll go with the 9.2%/2.2% rates for what we have been mostly discussing, which is change in average cost of things for households.
Andy: “… which is probably much closer to The Truth…”
Now you’ve got me. What are mere facts compared to The Truth? But for what they are worth, the facts are a far cry from Andy’s claim that “almost everything” that people buy on a regular basis has doubled (or more!) since 2008.
March 2nd, 2013 at 12:13 pm
Hi Andy:
“Even if your 2.6% rate is correct, and I am NOT saying that it is, you fail to consider that GDP growth is less than that, so we are losing ground.”
Nice try. When I first realized you would deny our low rate of inflation, I knew that you were about to get your clock cleaned. Now you want to change the subject. Do you have a source for general inflation levels that you are willing to stick with? Please repost it if you do, because I’ve only seen the three that gave me a 2.2% average for 2012 (and it is not at all clear that you still like even these three). When you repost, please be helpful and share with us the 2012 number.
March 2nd, 2013 at 12:21 pm
And you guys keep misunderstanding the 2.6% number as historical:
If you seek credible measurements of general U.S. inflation for the last four years, here are some alternatives: 1) basic CPI change from December-to-December; 2) same for the “chain weighted” CPI; 3) basic CPI measured as an annual average (same index as 1, but I also give it this way to make it more comparable to the GDP deflators); 4) the GDP deflator; and 5) the deflator for the Personal Consumption Expenditures component of GDP. (Data comes from BLS and BEA (.gov) websites; my apologies if I transcribed incorrectly.)
Percentage change in price index for 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012
1) CPI fixed (Dec-to-Dec.) 2.7%, 1.5%, 3.0%, 1.7%
2) CPI chain (Dec-to-Dec) 2.5% 1.3% 2.9% 1.6%
3) CPI fixed (year-to-year) -0.4% 1.6% 3.2% 2.1%
4) GDP deflator (year-to-year) 0.9% 1.3% 2.1% 1.8%(prelim.)
5) PCE deflator (year-to-year) 0.1% 1.9% 2.4% 1.8%(prelim.)
These measure different things, but are all broad-based measures of average changes in the price of things in the U.S. and all include final products bought by people. Below is the total compound increase over these four years for each measurement, followed by the compound annual rate in parenthesis (all are my calculations, apologies again for any errors).
1) CPI fixed (Dec-to-Dec.) 9.2% (2.2%)
2) CPI chain (Dec-to-Dec) 8.6% (2.1%)
3) CPI fixed (year-to-year) 6.6% (1.6%)
4) GDP deflator (year-to-year) 6.2% (1.5%)
5) PCE deflator (year-to-year) 6.3% (1.6%)
So, 6% to 9% TOTAL increase in average prices over the last four years depending on how you count, or a compound annual rate of 1.5% to 2.2%. I’ll go with the 9.2%/2.2% rates for what we have been mostly discussing, which is change in average cost of things for households.
March 2nd, 2013 at 12:46 pm
Andy: “… which is probably much closer to The Truth…”
Micky: “theres no denying this number exists in “mention” but does not reflect “truth” as its the past and present which is “truth” and the most reliable guide you can have.”
Now you’ve both got me. What are mere facts compared to The Truth? But for what they are worth, the facts are a far cry from Andy’s claim that “almost everything” that people buy on a regular basis has doubled (or more!) since 2008. I’ll give you 9%.
March 2nd, 2013 at 1:49 pm
Me: “So saying “futures market” doesn’t seem to get you where you want to go, and therefore you need to expand your theory a little more and we’ll see if it makes any sense. So far, no. Does your theory have a name? I am curious.”
I might as well go ahead and help Andy with this. The stock market is logically influenced by actual inflation since it represents a claim on future earnings, and earnings are impacted by inflation;
a) that has nothing to do with stocks being a “futures market”
b) you need actual inflation (not “The Truth” inflation) for there to be any logical influence. You have a total of 6% to 9% since 2008.
March 3rd, 2013 at 9:07 am
I know, Micky, which is why I commented earlier that BTT has become boring. He is unable to think for himself so he just keeps repeating himself, thinking that if he says a lie often enough we will all believe him.
Other than mortgage/rent, the major monthly expenses to the average American are health insurance (which has been increasing about 9%/year nationally) and gasoline (which has gone up 15% in just the past month or so). I guess BTT has his own oil refinery and is probably on MediCare, so he is clueless about what real people are really paying to survive in the Age of Obama.
March 3rd, 2013 at 12:09 pm
“The stock market is logically influenced by actual inflation since it represents a claim on future earnings, and earnings are impacted by inflation;”
You’re not too bright.
“Actual” and “future” are analogous to “past” n “present”
“Actual” is a concrete event. “Actual” means existing and not merely having potential or possibility, taking place at the present moment. Actual inflation can only be actual if it exists, or has happened
The stock market is influenced by speculation based on past trends.
You can only apply so much logic to speculation.
Logic is more productive using real actual factual past concrete events than educated guesses.
So, a futures market is still subjected to unseen circumstances.
Whats “actual” is that in most every part of our economys inflation, especially at the retail level, is in fact over 2.6% and any previous predictions of 2.6% has been verified— wrong.
But hey, its your freeking money.(maybe not) If you want to bet on those numbers go right ahead.
When you’re broke on your ass dont ask me for a stimulus unless it means you bending over.
Buzz is saying your futures market is based on something as un-debatable as 2+2=4
Sorry, but heres no guarantee in the future that the equation will be the same.
I’m gonna go buy 10- 5 lb. boxes of chicken thighs right now because they’re on sale for 5.99.
I willing to bet they’ll go back up to 8.99 a box tomorrow, but theres no guaranteeing they wont go up to 9.99 or come back to 4.99.
What commodities effect chicken inflation is irrelevant in this argument as theres argument as to whether or not the inflated price at the market is artificially raised or a result of decreased grain supplies.
Its still more than 2.6%
Everyones invited to my house for chicken n pesto on penne
March 3rd, 2013 at 12:12 pm
““Actual” and “future” are analogous to “past” n “present”
correction
“Actual” and “future” are analogous to “reality”(past) and “uncertainty”
March 3rd, 2013 at 3:55 pm
Hi Andy!
I see you ducked my challenge to name a price index that you could stick with, and now, Micky-style, you are back to anecdotes about specific items rather than the big picture. And with good reason….
…your compadre McC posted a link to a Sentier study a while back showing that real median household income is down by about 8% since 2000 (3% during 2000-08, 5% during 2009-2012. The authors (since they are not fools) deflated using the CPI in calculating real income. So, if you believe the Shadowstats numbers, which add about 4% to the annual CPI rate, you would find that median income has declined by a WHOPPING 45% since 2000.
Breaks down to maybe 30% during 2000-2008 and the rest since 2008. WHOPPING! Do you find this credible? I DO NOT, but maybe I am too comfortably cut off from “real people” as you say.
…and would you care to take a stab at what your “unskewed” inflation statistics would tell you about overall real GDP growth since 2000, adjusting “official” stats with what you consider more realistic inflation stats? The result would be hilarious.
Ready to give up?
March 3rd, 2013 at 4:34 pm
“Micky-style, you are back to anecdotes about specific items rather than the big picture.”
Your big picture is irrelevant in the face of speculative numbers.
Facts are not anecdotes.
Also, once again you incredibly disingenuous ass hole…
We all know you’d like us to be your freeking puppets and list every item under the sun and ask us stupid questions like “what about Campbells” ? “What about Nabisco” ?
Aint gonna happen steenky.
“you would find that median income has declined by a WHOPPING 45% since 2000.”
All the numbers you gerrymandered and used to get there did not account for COLAs and raises that do not reflect the rate of inflation in each of the fiscal years.
Inflation has been out pacing poorly accelerated incomes, especially in the last 4 years… dufus.
March 3rd, 2013 at 4:36 pm
Micky: “You’re not too bright.”
Actual, Micky, actual. The dollar is worth 1/10 of what it was a few decades ago, so if nothing else changed we would expect profits and stock prices to be 10 times higher today than then. But other things change; Stocks tanked in the 70s when inflation soared, and soared in the 80s when inflation tanked – so the opposite of the long-term value-of-the-dollar effect.
But I have good news for you on the CHICKEN front, courtesy of Andy’s “indexmundi” website. (BTW very handy website.)
The price of whole chickens was $0.9912/lb in January 2013, and $0.8725/lb in January 2009 (spot prices f.o.b. Georgia docks). That is a total increase of 13%, (or a compound annual rate of 3.2%).
Seems like a pretty tame increase.
March 3rd, 2013 at 7:48 pm
Pardon me tinker, but theres only one way to put this.
You’re a fcking idiot.
And heres proof.
“The dollar is worth 1/10 of what it was a few decades ago, so if nothing else changed we would expect profits and stock prices to be 10 times higher today than then.”
You seem to forget that weve printed an awful lot of money since then
Since its well established that you dont know the difference between value and price, or speculation and actuality, I doubt you’ll see the idiocy in that statement.
One last time.
Your 2.6% is not applicable to the rate of inflation at the retail level.
Also, more proof would be that you cant or wont answer the question asking if you’d place a speculative bet, or purchase based on inflation staying at 2.6% in a futures market.
You willing to use that figure in a hedge ?
Long term ?
============
“The price of whole chickens was $0.9912/lb in January 2013, and $0.8725/lb in January 2009 (spot prices f.o.b. Georgia docks). That is a total increase of 13%, (or a compound annual rate of 3.2%).”
Thats nice.
But you always leave out crucial components like the fact I’m buying my thighs at the retail level and not as a futures investment where prices are determined by extreme volumes.
The economy is bad, you’re bad, Obama is bad, and theres nothing you’ve posted that proves otherwise.
This argument is equally as dumb and distracting as the argument taking place on the Keystone thread.
The Keystone argument thats relevant is one of an environmental nature, not job creation.
Its environmentalists that are the reason approval is withheld.
Only an idiot would argue it wont create meaningful numbers of jobs.
Only an idiot would argue in favor of this economy alone, never mind you using your reference to a one week stock market spike or futures markets being of a speculated 2.6% inflation rate as some sign of improvement for the retail market
March 4th, 2013 at 12:15 am
Micky: “The economy is bad, you’re bad, Obama is bad, and theres nothing you’ve posted that proves otherwise.”
All that, and low inflation too!
(Stop trying to change the subject.)
Micky, can you do me a favor and give a source that you find reliable for chicken prices over time at the retail level, not just in your neighborhood in Hawaii but generally? I’d like to verify your claims and maybe see how 2008 or 2009 compares to today.
(I ask because I notice the CPI survey has chicken going up 6.1 percent during the twelve months ending Jan. 2013.)
March 4th, 2013 at 7:38 am
@BTT,
No, why should I give up? Once again, you prove how ignorant you are of economics…
“Actual, Micky, actual. The dollar is worth 1/10 of what it was a few decades ago, so if nothing else changed we would expect profits and stock prices to be 10 times higher today than then.”
Actually, BTT, the stock prices would be 1/10th of what they are now if the value of our dollar was the same as it was before being severed from being linked to gold and silver in 1964 (silver) and 1971 (gold).
As for which ‘index’ I use to judge inflation, I certainly do not use any arbitrary calculations made by government bureaucrats or political appointees. I would like to say that gold is a good indicator, but as we all know, if you pay attention, that market is heavily manipulated by governments, central banks and private ‘banksters’.
In a pure, free market world, gold would probably be somewhere between $3,500 to $5,000 per ounce, if not much more, just based on the expansion of the paper and digital money supplies. I am glad you like the one site I linked to, but saddened that you haven’t commented on the sharp rise in the price of Tide laundry detergent! Who would have thought before Obama took office that Tide would become the most stolen item shoplifted from grocery stores?
March 4th, 2013 at 11:15 am
Thank you Andy, gold was going to be next reference.
BTT, you’re arguing idiocy.
I’m not going to engage in a debate over the fact that everything people buy, the basic necessitous, has risen more than 6%
You thinking you can waste my time anymore arguing whether or not the sun comes up in the east proves you’re just jerking people off because you really have no valid point.
Since you wont answer my questions you’re obviously at a loss.
Our dollars are worth less and our sht costs more, you failed to counter Andys lists of items radically inflated such as fuel costs and those products tied to it.
Of course this whole exercise has been moot from the beginning in light of you not even knowing the difference between value and price.
You lost then and you lose now of default by being obtuse and ignorant of the questions I posed.
Any honest person could settle this matter in hours, if not minutes.
But if anything, its Andy and I who’ve jerked you off in the last week only to prove what a stupid stubborn ignoramus you are.
How can anyone expect a liberal leeching off Obamas phallus to understand whats truly going on ?
March 4th, 2013 at 11:50 pm
Hi Andy:
Gold? Silver? Stop changing the subject. I see you have punted on committing to ANY measure of inflation. Smart fellow, since your Shadowstats alternative was about to force you to claim that real incomes had nearly halved since 2000 (explain it to Micky sometime…)
But then your more nebulous claim that “most prices have doubled!” gets you a similar absurd result, no?
So that leaves us with 2.2% CPI inflation for last four years, with nothing contradicting it that you will stick with. And even Micky’s CHICKEN alarm seems to be overblown too (see below).
Hi Micky:
I left your latest musings on the field because I thought it more humane to just let them die in peace. They were unintentionally funny when you imagined you were saying something I disagreed with (“they printed lots of money!” “real income has declined!”), but mostly ignorant, confused, and nonsensical.
Example: “Also, more proof would be that you cant or wont answer the question asking if you’d place a speculative bet… You willing to use that figure in a hedge ?”
My personal investments offer the world “proof” about whether global financial markets expect high or low inflation? If only my wife realized what an important fellow I am!
I am getting really curious about chicken prices. I posted earlier the producer’s spot price indicating prices rising 3.2% per year (compound rate).
Here are the CPI retail-level chicken price increases for urban consumers for the twelve months ending January (from the bls website): 2010 (-1.9%); 2011 (1.1%); 2012 (4.1%); 2013 (6.1%). Apologies if I transcribed incorrectly.
This works out to a total increase since January 2008 of 9.5%, or a compound annual rate of 2.3%.
Too funny! Please direct us to any alternative resources that you have showing chicken prices doubling, so the rest of us can independently verify your claims.
March 5th, 2013 at 1:48 am
Q. Why did the chicken cross the road?
A. To lay an egg on the liberal.