Let’s talk California politics! The prize of Super Tuesday.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Illinois Senator Barack Obama will win the delegate race in California.
On the Republican side the delegates will be apportioned based on the outcome of 53 separate primaries. There are 53 congressional districts in California and the winner of each district will be awarded 3 delegates. The result of this bizarre apportionment is that the delegate race has absolutely nothing to do with the popular vote. In fact, a candidate could theoretically “win” tomorrows popular vote by Millions of votes and “lose” the delegate battle. Here’s why. The California congressional districts are intentionally gerrymandered*. In California, gerrymandering is the norm as incumbents and parties want to ensure certain congressional districts stay either Republican or Democrat. The result of this is that out of the 53 districts, there are actually very few that are seriously contested come election time. Either the Republican or the Democrat wins by a huge amount.
So, let’s get to the math on the Republican side (and I’ll attempt to condense a very large excel spreadsheet), California has 53 congressional districts, each awarding 3 delegates. So, the total delegates pledged from the district vote will be 159 (53X3). There will be an additional 11 delegates awarded to the popular vote winner. Three additional delegates will be non-pledged and not decided tomorrow (the “vacation” delegates). Out of the 53 congressional districts, 19 are Republican districts. This gives Mitt Romney a head start over Senator McCain. Independents will not be allowed to vote in the primary, so only Republicans, which are in large part conservative, will enter the polling booths. Mitt Romney will win the large majority of the 19 districts that are strong conservative Republican. Perhaps as many as 17 of them. This is effectively a 50+/- delegate head start for Mitt Romney.
If tradition holds, Mitt Romney will do poorly among Hispanics because of a strong stance on illegal immigration, but here again the apportionment helps Gov. Romney. Although I could not get any hard data, I’m guessing that the GOP Hispanic vote will come from the traditional Hispanic districts in the south and the inland fields. (ie I’m assuming that GOP Hispanics don’t live in Modoc County (district 4), but where the majority of the other Hispanics live). Thus, the Hispanic vote will be concentrated to certain districts. Due to his position of allowing all illegal immigrants, except criminals, to remain in the United States indefinitely, McCain will whip Romney in these districts, I mean seriously whip. However, even if McCain garners 90% of the vote in those districts, he will only be awarded 3 delegates per district. The heavily Hispanic districts (greater than 40%) are districts 17, 18, 20, 23, 28, 30,31, 32, 34, 35, 37, 38, 39, 43 and 47. If all of those vote McCain he’ll win 15 districts. He may also win some additional districts around San Diego, which has a strong Navy presence. However, if my spreadsheet is right, McCain will win about 20 of the 52 districts, or 60 delegates. Romney, barring a Ron Paul revolution in the Eureka/Arcata and the SFO area (which could get him 3-9 delgates) will garner about 33 districts and come home with 99 delegates. The 11 “Sugar on Top” delegates look like they will also go to Romney, but that’s a complete guess at this time and depends largely on turnout in the conservative districts; ie Orange County.
Thus my California Delegate Spread Sheet (with the 11 sugars going Romney) reads Romney: 107 McCain 60 Paul 3
I’m taking a chance here but that’s how I see it. I’d welcome any response or criticism y’all have.
I may be wrong. We’ll find out in 24 hours!
On the Democratic side, I have not as much insight but believe that the Republicans closing the independents out . . . and the Democrats accepting them, will favor Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton. However, you never know with Bill working his Willy in LA. It should be noted on the Democratic side that (barring a complete blowout) the delegates will be apportioned according to popular voting percentage. So, either candidates win will have minimal effect on the delegate count but will effect momentum.
* Definition of Gerrymandering or Redistricting: For those new to politics, gerrymandering (or “redistricting”) is the art of a political party in power redrawing the voting districts to advance there cause. For example, if there is a district that votes 90-10 Republican-Democrat, and a neighboring district that votes 50-50 Republican-Democrat; The Republicans may try to redraw (or “gerrymander”) the lines of the 50-50 district in order get more Republicans from the 90-10 district voting in the evenly split district. It should also be noted here that modern-day gerrymandering is usually unconstitutional and nearly always gets a supreme court review . . . except in California.
February 4th, 2008 at 5:40 pm
Ok, fresh sources:
My source says that McCain continues to be ahead outside the MOE.
On the D side – Obama is surging and Hillary has flatlined.
I know that Ras has it tied and Zogby with a lead for Romney. I personally think that Mitt wins CA slightly, but the delagates slightly more to Mitt, but not much.
February 4th, 2008 at 5:44 pm
So yes,
I do believe that the source for the R side, may be wrong.
As usual since I do every now and then have access to internals always take them with a grain of salt.
February 4th, 2008 at 5:46 pm
Gee, 107 to 60 is a trouncing. My bias hopes that you are wrong.
Hey Tina, I hope that isn’t the same source that you had for Florida.
February 4th, 2008 at 5:49 pm
If McCain wins by a million votes is it still a trouncing??? It’s going to be like the General results coming in. So and So district went to McCain. It will be very similar to watching the general election with 52 districts.
February 4th, 2008 at 6:03 pm
What source for FL, I said that McCain will win easily, if he gets passed SC?
February 4th, 2008 at 6:12 pm
Tina, I have noticed you frequently mentioning your sources and making predictions and such. Do you work for one of the campaigns or how do you have those inside connections?
February 5th, 2008 at 4:19 am
I do not work for any campaigns. Incidentally, I’m not a Republican, but an independent conservative – sin 2004.
I do stay connected with sources from both parties. I do not have sources, however, in al states, nor did I have them in SC.
Regards, Guest.
February 5th, 2008 at 6:12 am
Thanks for the reply. What I’m trying to figure out is how sources within the parties would have a better idea of who is going to win in a given state than the average joe. Is their internal polling more extensive or more accurate than Rasmussen/Reuters/Survey USA/etc.?
February 5th, 2008 at 7:03 am
I hope you are right.
Certainly seems that there has been a shift, and I have heard the campaigns say as much. I heard Georgia may be really interesting. One thing I was told to watch is the NE. Romney won’t win, but was told if he has a better showing than expected it may bode well for the rest of the country.
Polls tend to be a couple days behind. At least that is what I have been told in regards to Zogby, Rasmussen, Survey USA, etc. Romney has some momentum, and the question will be answered tonight as to whether it is enough. I think it is going to be to little to late.
February 5th, 2008 at 7:55 am
They could be or not. Remember, in NH, the internal polls on the D side indicated that Hillary would lose big (as did most public polls).
I always caveat to take the internals here with a grain of salt.
I believe that Ras. may have listed new polls showing a big nite for McCain. We shall see.
February 5th, 2008 at 8:38 am
I heard Rasmussen yesterday say that he was done polling. Based on the results he had from a few days ago he said that he believed it would be over.
He says California may be good to Romney, but the format of it won’t help in the long run. Of course if he did what Brian wrote that would be pretty impressive, and would have to get a win in Georgia. A Georgia win with a California win would give him enough momentum to keep going.
I originally thought he would need Missouri, but with his rise in Georgia he might not after all. It doesn’t look good for Romney, but like I have said before I will wait for the votes to be counted. There is obviously some movement towards him. I think he could continue to run, and take about 25-30% of the vote. Especially if he decides to come down here to Texas. McCain’s immigration bill is going to kill him here. It hasn’t done him any favors in California or Georgia. I was surprised to see it as big of an issue in Georgia, and it is one that Romney dominates.
February 5th, 2008 at 8:43 am
New York City will go heavily for McCain, but with all that partying in lower Manhattan today voting may not be on the agenda for a lot of folks.
February 5th, 2008 at 10:17 am
Tina, will you please keep us updated on what you are hearing out of California?
February 5th, 2008 at 2:52 pm
Well really low turnout on the GOP side in our San Diego precinct (though our district is very Democratic)
Two of us voted together for Romney at 10:30 this morning and were only the 13th and 14th Republicans voting….hopefully this bodes well for Romney as conservatives turn out and liberals/moderates stay home.
August 27th, 2009 at 8:36 am
Cool point of view you have there, did you know that this nearly doesnt happen in some countries at all, although they do similar things but not exactly the same. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sLJf4k-Sc8c