I’ve said in previous articles that Republicans are facing an uphill battle. A WSJ article today confirms this fact and paints an even grimmer picture of the situation. The WSJ, reporting on a Washington Post/Pew poll had this to say on the topic:
“A majority of Americans say that if the country goes over the fiscal cliff on Dec. 31, congressional Republicans should bear the brunt of the blame,” reports the Post. “While 53 percent of those surveyed say the GOP would (and should) lose the fiscal cliff blame game, just 27 percent say President Obama would be deserving of more of the blame. Roughly one in 10 (12 percent) volunteer that both sides would be equally to blame.”
Not good. And also not the only poll to show such a trend.
As well, Senator Claire McCaskill spells out the other major advantage for Democrats:
“Here’s the reality. Let’s assume they won’t go for any raising of the rates,” said Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill of Missouri Sunday on “Meet the Press.” “Then all the Bush tax cuts are going to expire and we would come back in January and, first thing, pass a tax cut for everybody under 250 [thousand]. What, are the Republican going to vote no on that? Of course not. So they’re going to get stuck with a raising of the rates of the top 2%, either in a very painful way or in a way that we can all suffer a little bit.”
Senator McCaskill is, unfortunately, completely correct. And the final factor in the Democrats’ favor is the complete obeisance of the media to President Obama. He says, “these Republicans are bad people,” they nod and write it down and report it as fact. I’m sure some liberals are reading this right now and saying, “well, they are!”
Unfortunately, the public seems to have bought the simplistic slogan of “making the rich pay a little bit more.” Conservatives say they’re already paying too much for too little, but that doesn’t matter because the president has the catchiest slogan and media behind him. Republicans have no chance of winning over the public. They can only lose by degrees in this fight.
So they should do something completely unexpected. Something that the president will not expect and might even make him nervous. They should give him everything he wants.
And Republicans should be very up front about why they are giving the president what he wants. They should state their weak bargaining position, the fact that public opinion clearly indicates they are mistrusted on this issue, and that they cannot get any traction on the idea of tax reform over tax hikes. They should then tell everyone what they believe the consequences should be and they should extract one promise from the president, in writing, that in January he will sit down with them to begin working on tax reform.
The news of Republicans bowing to the president’s wishes would give them a unique opportunity to capture the spotlight. And in that spotlight they should spell out what will happen when the president implements his changes. What are they? Here are just a few:
- Market Decline – The markets are already unsteady with the possibility of tax hikes. Once that becomes certain, there will be a huge selloff as investors take profits before taxes go up and the market will likely see a dramatic decline. In addition, there will be less capital in the future for investments in new businesses.
- Economic Decline – Businesses have already begun to downsize and shift their workforce ahead of the full implementation of ObamaCare. This trend will accelerate and unemployment and partial employment will go up. Perhaps dramatically.
- Recession – The economy has been slowing down for two consecutive years. The president did not raise taxes before because, as he said, you should not when the economy is teetering. Well, the economy is worse now than it was then. Apparently he didn’t mean what he said three years ago. Expect a new recession.
- Drop in Federal Revenue – When he markets sell, the government will get an initial burst of income from the sell-off, then federal revenues in 2013 will see a sharp decline similar to what was experienced in 2009. As the economy stalls and investment declines, federal revenues will take far longer to recover, thus federal debt and deficits will skyrocket.
Of course, when the economy goes south and the public finally sees the fruit of Obama’s presidential policies, he will try to blame Republicans. But that’s going to be so much more difficult after having publicly chided Republicans over and over for trying to “favor the wealthy over the middle class.”
Republicans should give the president what he wants. It may be the only way to open people’s eyes.
December 4th, 2012 at 10:33 pm
Nah that would be irresponsible. What the president wants will continue to harm my kids. Rather get it over with now and pay the cost in our generation. We deserve it, as does the prior generation, for stealing their futures by adopting liberal policies.
December 4th, 2012 at 10:53 pm
To Klo, Kloson, Ghost of Klo, Nancy, Betty, and whatever your handle of the day….
Your comments will not make it through moderation until you stop violating the comment policy by using multiple handles. They are deleted whenever I find them. I suggest you go with “Klo” and stick with it, and remember to keep the conversation civil or you will be banned once again and permanently.
December 5th, 2012 at 6:27 am
The GOP needs to realize that they are never, ever going to get an objective, honest treatment by the Media. If they did, then people would be up in arms over this whole nonsense of Obama refusing to sign anything that does not include a “rate” increase. Mark Levin is right, they should pass through the House a bill that cuts taxes across the board and let Obama and Reid sit on it. We all know that in 2014, Democrats will not vote in as large numbers, so why should we care?
December 5th, 2012 at 8:27 am
As optimistic as I try to be I cant shake the feeling all this will come crashing down anyway.
My son will be 18 in Feb, hes doomed to be with us a few more years.
Might as well be sooner than later.
I finally shut down my little hole in the wall shop. Weve gone from show winning Harleys and the sweetest rides for the last 15 years to taking scratches out of Stainless elevator doors and brass railings in malls, even did a 200 lb. porthole covered in barnacles.
I’ve been breaking even for almost a year now.
Shipping, gas, materials, electricity, fck it.
Thanks Barry, I never reached that top 2% that make 250,000.oo and more.
Hows that work anyway ?
You say the top 2% need to pay more.
But you’re nailing far more than 2% of us by using a 250 G marker.
As if you werent going to all along.
December 5th, 2012 at 9:09 am
Who exactly should the Democrats be negotiating with in the House?
Boehner offers a plan and before the ink is dry he is eviscerated by the right.
December 5th, 2012 at 9:20 am
From your very own admission David, is this “give the President what he wants” or is it “give the American people what they want”?
But realistically, it should be more about doing what’s historically proven to work as we’ve all seen this movie before. In 1982, Ronald Reagan raised taxes during a sluggish economy against the wishes of the GOP. We heard the same “job destroying” arguments. Yet, the GDP grew 4.5% in 1983 and 7.2% in 84. The Dow rose 35% giving the best performance ever. Unemployment fell from 10.6% in 82 to 8.1% in 83 to 7.1% in 84.
In 1993 we saw a repeat as the Clinton tax increases saw job growth, GDP growth, more people out of poverty, and a balanced budget for the 1st time since 1969. Yet, the GOP presented those same job killing arguments that we hear today.
And then came the Bush cuts which after being in place for over a decade, have proven to be an abject failure. This time, the GOP promised job growth and an economic boom. The economy tanked.
And looking back through our economic history, in the 50s and 60s, the top tax rate was 3 times what it is today, union membership was around 30%, the GOP advocated spending projects, the economy was very regulated, and the wealth gap between the rich and poor was nowhere where it is today. The middle class boomed, businesses prospered, and we even put a man on the moon. Worker’s biggest concerns seem to be keeping up with the Jones. According to the CBO, the gap between the poor and rich has tripled since 1979. And while this has proven to be economically fatal, the GOP is still demanding more.
And the biggest fear from many on the right seems to be that we’d be “giving the President what he wants”.
December 5th, 2012 at 9:43 am
Everyone should read the “Why Stock are Dead (and Bonds are Deader)” article from the November 26th issue of Time.
The main contributors to the article are Mohamed El-Erian and Bill “the Bond King” Gross, both considered to be among the nation’s top two financial oracles.
They define our current economy as the “new normal” and that 2% annual growth over the next decade is to be expected.
They are the authors of a seminal study in 2009 and that examination was acknowledged as the reason that the phrase “new normal” become a component of the financial world’s lexicon.
They blame painful deleveraging, polarized politics and a slow-growth, bifurcated economy in which multinational corporations and plutocrats flourish, but everyone else struggles.
Neither sees tax cuts or deregulation as a solution and comment that supply-side economics haven’t stimulated the economy since the early 70’s.
Gross, a life-long Republican, voted for Obama and both Gross and El-Erian now subscribe to a lot of the elements of Simpson-Bowles and the Warren Buffet school of taxes and that going from a 35% tax rate to 39.6% wouldn’t drive entrepreneurs abroad and that continuing bifurcations in the U.S. workforce means the rich will need to do more for the team (yeah, yeah, I know they already pay a lot, granted).
This is from two men that are clearly in the top 0.1%.
If you can find the article you will find it interesting, from an examination of where the money went, to where it is going, including where a person can invest wisely (dividend bearing stocks, high-yield debt bonds originating in Mexico and Brazil while being surprisingly high on construction and housing.
Their biggest fear? Youth unemployment, which they view as an epidemic.
December 5th, 2012 at 10:29 am
“Neither sees tax cuts or deregulation as a solution and comment that supply-side economics haven’t stimulated the economy since the early 70’s.”
How convenient when theres historical proof that proves them wrong.
The government sure as hell hasn’t stimulated the economy.
You might disagree if you see one trillion of stimulus giving us a few billion in growth as progress.
These morons need a history course.
Theres nothing a government in commerce can do better than a free capitalist society, other than tax it.
Thats a fact Jack
December 5th, 2012 at 2:08 pm
(editors note – “Klo” and his various aliases have a lifetime ban from right pundits.)
December 5th, 2012 at 7:39 pm
Just quoted the article, which was good reading from people that know far more than me about the recent history of our economy, while offering astute projections for the future..
Give it a read.
December 5th, 2012 at 7:59 pm
Buzz, theres no article on earth than can defeat the fact that our government does not make an economy or erase eras when drops in taxation raised revenues.
Whats very telling is how you suggested it before you read it all.
“the Warren Buffet school of taxes and that going from a 35% tax rate to 39.6% wouldn’t drive entrepreneurs abroad and that continuing bifurcations in the U.S. workforce means the rich will need to do more for the team.”
Thats bullsht.
The truth behind it is this.
If business loans or lines of credit were increased on the same margins only an idiot would say it wouldnt drive business elsewhere or stifle it.
So, go figure, you guys hound the banks when they want more that will eventually come off your bottom line but not the government ?
Thats okay, you can always whip up another community reinvestment act. That’ll teach those bankers
December 6th, 2012 at 9:03 am
I don’t know what you mean by “read it all”.
Their comments, by the way, are very objective and if you read the entire article you would easily see that they are even-handed in their views on both the past and future.
You read the article and tell me what you think.
I will see if I can copy and paste it, but it is rather lengthy.
December 6th, 2012 at 9:04 am
Alan Simpson was on the Daily Show yesterday and made a prescient comment. “I must have been right, everyone was mad at me”.
So is the Tea Party in favor of less government, or no government?
I feel sorry for the Republicans in the house. It is as if they have to placate a bunch of adolescents who would rather ruin the country rather than make “any” concessions.
No compromise. You know what they used to call compromise? Governing.
Oh well, they will simply be a memory and punch line within a few years, however, I now understand why Boehner is crying all of the time.
December 6th, 2012 at 12:02 pm
“I don’t know what you mean by “read it all”.”
My mistake.
Still, its not that I’m fearing anything in it.
But the original assessment gives enough to label its flawed claims.
Its dishonesty is parallel to one who asks this kind of question;
“So is the Tea Party in favor of less government, or no government?”
Seriously ?
No wonder you think the article was so great.
Every administration has increased the size of government.
This one takes the prize for all time greatest growth of fed employees and regulations.
December 6th, 2012 at 10:22 pm
That’s the flaw of democracy, it can only work well as long as people live prudent lives, but we have forgotten that and now the majority is asking for increased debt, as long as they feel they won’t be the ones to pay for it. No wonder so much hate again Christianity: it points to working as a precondition to eating, and clearly explains that social liberalism is expensive and incompatible with fiscal conservatism: somebody has to pay the excesses. Full-blown communism already made its way into the American heart, now it’s just a matter of preparing for the economic collapse the best way we can, because there’s no way we can pay all this increasing debt without crashing the dollar.