He Won
Post-election theories regarding President Obama’s victory last Tuesday are legion. On the left, they’re saying that the election was a repudiation of “extreme conservatism.” On the right, the consensus is the president won dirty.
What we know for sure is that he did win. And while his victory in no way signals an end to conservatism, it’s important to understand elements that went into the president’s victory, the scope of his victory, and the implications.
Elements of The Obama Victory
There are a lot of smart people out there with a lot of good theories regarding the president’s re-election victory. I find myself in agreement with many of them, and also see some common elements across all of them. The president did a number of things that helped him win. First of all, he maintained his campaign infrastructure the entire four years he was in office. Why did the president accomplish so little? Because, in some ways, he never fully transitioned from running for president to actually being the president.
Another element was the torrent of negative ads aimed at his opponent, most of which ignored any of the real facts and instead focused on distorting the truth so as to scare voters away from the center-right moderate from Massachusetts. When fact-check sites, and Romney himself, called the president on his distortions, he ignored them and went right on saying the same thing. This was not “the big lie” strategy; rather, it was a torrent of negativity aimed at suppressing voter turnout.
A third element was the mainstream media’s unswerving devotion. The reason this president could continue to accomplish so little, distort the truth so wildly, and escape accountability so consistently was the collusion on the part of most of the mainstream press. They protected the president, allowing him to escape full accountability, while attacking Romney relentlessly on every tiny issue possible. When you have a debate moderator who interrupts the challenger during a debate to defend the president, with the president actively cheering her on, you have collusion.
The media was not incompetent, nor were they deceived. They were in bed with this president. That is an undeniable fact.
The Scope of Obama’s Victory
So, how big was the president’s win last week? In terms of its potential negative impact on the country, very big. In 2013, the new ObamaCare taxes will go into effect. In 2014, ObamaCare itself will be fully implemented, and it will wreak havoc on our economy. This is not speculation, this is a guarantee.
In regards to the number of votes the president secured and the potential mandate his victory gives him, it was, in a sense, akin to escaping a burning house with just the clothes on your back. President Obama was the first US president in history to win a second term with fewer votes than before. Almost 8 million fewer votes. So, while the electoral spread is decisive, the bottom line numbers are not. The fact is, the secret to Obama’s success was in suppressing voter turnout, which almost always favors the incumbent. The stream of unending negative ads scared people away. The same people who would have pulled the lever for Romney. At the same time, he used his excellent GOTV efforts to get his supporters to the polls.
Despite all of that, he had almost 8 million fewer votes than before. Not very impressive.
The Implications of Obama’s Victory
Finally what are the implications of this victory? What does it say about the future of presidential elections, and the future of the country?
When it comes to future presidential races, we’re going to see, unfortunately, more negativity. The fact that the president went relentlessly negative and was rewarded for that inherently destructive behavior with a second term is not encouraging. In fact, it may be a grim foreshadowing of elections for some time to come. For certain, we can expect Democrats to try this in 2016.
Will this translate into certain victory for future Democratic presidential candidates? Not necessarily. President Obama, as the first Black president of the country, was uniquely qualified to stitch together the coalition that gave him a second term. Will this work again? Not if Republicans can more effectively reach out to elements of that coalition, most especially Latino and Asian voters, who have far more in common with Republicans than Democrats. And the Republican Party must work much harder to reach out to the Black Community. It’s no surprise that the vast majority of the Black Community supported Obama in 2008 and 2012. At the same time, it presents an opportunity for Republicans to do better at recruiting candidates from the Black community and reaching out to voters who, in regards to social issues, are virtually identical to Republicans. On issues of life, marriage, and school choice, to name just a few, there is no distance between the Black Community and the Republican Party.
As we look toward the 2014 mid-term elections, and then 2016, Republicans have their work cut out for them. And yet there are reasons to be optimistic. The United States is a center-right country, and as Obama’s big government policies really begin to kick in over the next two years, the Republicans have an opportunity to remind people why the party of limited government, fiscal accountability, and free market capitalism is worth their support.
November 14th, 2012 at 11:20 pm
Exception analysis, David. And welcome to Right Pundits.
The victory also guarantees another four years of partisan fighting on steroids. You see signs of it in the secession movement, the looming fight over incompetent presidential appointments, and the tax issues present in the fiscal cliff. The election was an unmitigated disaster for the short-term and long-term future of the country, because we will continue to be absent a national leader at a time we need one the most.
November 14th, 2012 at 11:54 pm
Nice article, David. I think that the GOP will win a lot more House seats in 14. I think it also has a chance to win back the Senate, but it will lose it back probably in 16 (because of the 10 landslide).
I think your strategy for the future is right, winning Hispanic voters. The trick is figuring out how to do it without changing the market-driven soul of the party.
November 15th, 2012 at 12:56 am
Most people get their news and political punditry in two minute snippets. Often, looking at TV from the other room while telling their wife where to get the ‘flat’ fixed.
My 83 YO Mother, voted Obama based entirely on Romney’s War On Women. This is a woman who watches QVC all day, every day. It is people like her that are driving this bus over the cliff.
Along with Sandra Fluke
November 15th, 2012 at 3:59 am
If I were Obama, I would be very careful never to even be in the same room with Biden.
It is all you right wing, gun-toting nuts have left.
November 15th, 2012 at 5:14 am
Great article, David! Welcome a board to RP!
I’m still optimistic that in the long run, Socialism will be defeated. If it takes 4 more years of Obama ruining the nation to lead towards a purging of Progressive programs and agenda for a generation or two after, then so be it.
November 15th, 2012 at 12:26 pm
This was in my email box, did one of you send it to me?
Dear Red States:
We’re ticked off at your Neanderthal attitudes and politics and we’ve decided we’re leaving.
We in New York intend to form our own country and we’re taking the other Blue States with us. In case you aren’t aware, that includes California, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois and the rest of the Northeast.
We believe this split will be beneficial to the nation and especially to the people of the new country, The Enlightened States of America (E.S.A).
To sum up briefly:
You get Texas, Oklahoma and all the slave states.
We get stem cell research and the best beaches.
We get Andrew Cuomo and Elizabeth Warren.
You get Bobby Jindal and Todd Akin.
We get the Statue of Liberty.
You get OpryLand.
We get Intel and Microsoft.
You get WorldCom.
We get Harvard.
You get Ole’ Miss.
We get 85 percent of America’s venture capital and entrepreneurs.
You get Alabama.
We get two-thirds of the tax revenue.
You get to make the red states pay their fair share.
Since our aggregate divorce rate is 22 percent lower than the Christian
Coalition’s, we get a bunch of happy families. You get a bunch of single moms.
With the Blue States in hand we will have firm control of 80% of the country’s fresh water, more than 90% of the pineapple and lettuce, 92% of the nation’s fresh fruit, 95% of America’s quality wines (you can serve French wines at state dinners) 90% of all cheese, 90 percent of the high tech industry, most of the US low sulfur coal, all living redwoods, sequoias and condors, all the Ivy and Seven Sister schools plus Harvard, Yale, Stanford, Cal Tech and MIT.
With the Red States, you will have to cope with 88% of all obese Americans and their projected health care costs, 92% of all US mosquitoes, nearly 100% of the tornadoes, 90% of the hurricanes, 99% of all Southern Baptists, virtually 100% of all televangelists, Rush Limbaugh, Bob Jones University, Clemson and the University of Georgia.
We get Hollywood and Yosemite, thank you.
38% of those in the Red states believe Jonah was actually swallowed by a whale, 62% believe life is sacred unless we’re discussing the death penalty or gun laws, 44% say that evolution is only a theory, 53% that Saddam was involved in 9/11 and 61% of you crazy bastards believe you are people with higher morals then we lefties.
We’re taking the good weed too. You can have that crap they grow in Mexico.
Sincerely,
Citizen of the Enlightened States of America
November 15th, 2012 at 12:56 pm
Whoever it was is an idiot.
They say they’re leaving and then say they’re staying where they’re at.
November 15th, 2012 at 12:58 pm
Buzz, do you really read your junkmail? You must be a very lonely lost soul.
November 15th, 2012 at 1:54 pm
Buzzboo !
Whoever Crammed that Up Your Inbox is clearly delusional.
Ya’ll will be left with what we Give You. Nothing More.
You get Jon Blonde Jovi.
We Get Aerosmith.
November 15th, 2012 at 2:01 pm
Thank you everyone for your kind words and thanks very much for giving me the opportunity to contribute here at RP. It’s much more fun to post to a site where we can have a good discussion about the issues.
In regards to the email you received, I think it’s a perfect example of the Obama Evolution. He went from declaring “there’s no red state or blue states, just the united states” to, “you’re not one of us.”
He promised to unite, but then chose to divide.
He promised to seek bipartisan agreement, then told Republicans, in so many words, “I won and I’m going to do it my way.”
He promised to cut federal spending and then doubled federal spending.
And for you liberals, he promised to close Guantanamo, yet it remains open today.
He promised to immediately end the war in Iraq, then he followed the Bush timetable.
He promised to end the Bush-era tax rates, then he extended them.
He promised immigration reform, then he began deporting illegals even more aggressively than President Bush.
I could could go on like this for a while.
November 15th, 2012 at 2:04 pm
We get the military and the hot women.
You get Helen Thomas and the Peace Corp.
November 15th, 2012 at 2:25 pm
Lonely Buzz gets Klo, Ghost of Klo, GOK, Kloson, and “Filbert” for good times with a schizophrenic liberal. I get Micky.
David, I am shock shock shocked to find a hypocritical Democratic president in this establishment.
November 15th, 2012 at 2:58 pm
I am pretty sure it was in response to Texas seceding from the United States.
I found it amusing.
November 15th, 2012 at 3:01 pm
Buzzboo !
“Whoever Crammed that Up Your Inbox is clearly delusional.
Ya’ll will be left with what we Give You. Nothing More.
You get Jon Blonde Jovi.
We Get Aerosmith.”
Isn’t Aerosmith from Boston?
November 15th, 2012 at 3:02 pm
Lonely Buzz gets Klo, Ghost of Klo, GOK, Kloson, and “Filbert” for good times with a schizophrenic liberal. I get Micky.
Good luck with all that.
November 15th, 2012 at 3:11 pm
Yeah Boston. Trade you the Dixie Chicks plus my photo of Michelle Obama’s ginormous booty (from my natural history collection) for Aerosmith, and you can even keep the Village People and those KISS pervs.