Many political observers, since Tuesday, have bemoaned Romney’s loss (probably, more accurately, Obama’s victory) in the Presidential election. For me, a much more devastating defeat was what happened in the Senate. Let’s go through the different Senate elections that were regarded as toss-ups on Election Day.
For two election seasons now, many of us were hopeful that the Senate majority would switch hands. In 2010, we were disappointed by some of the candidates nominated, and their eventual, inevitable defeat. Well, stuff happens. Whenever a new group of excitable people begins exerting its political leverage, we can expect some of them to be neophytes who are willing to proclaim publicly that they are not witches, for example.
But, I was hopeful again at the beginning of this election season. A lot of Democratic seats were up for grabs; it seemed likely that many of these could be turned over to the GOP. I also was optimistic that Republican leaders had discovered the novel notion that they should attempt to influence primaries to select candidates who had the capability of winning a general election. I was stupid enough to think that a President who had presided over four years of economic doldrums and two years of partisan contentiousness, and who ran an almost completely negative campaign would not have many coat-tails and would be more concerned with his own re-election. Finally, I believed the Citizens United decision would lead to a flow of money to each state to run ads.
Well, as a Monday morning quarterback, it’s pretty easy to see why I was so wrong. First, the only Democratic seat won was that in Nebraska, where Bob Kerrey thought that if he moved back to Nebraska for a few months, he might never have to go back again, once seated in DC. Second, the GOP Senate Minority leader, Mitch McConnell, it appears, is not even the most powerful Senator in his own state and fears the influence of Rand Paul if he should too directly oppose him. So, we ended up with a number of silly old male candidates who decided that they should make a point of discussing rape. Third, it turned out that a massive GOTV effort by Democrats for the President also enabled his Senators to run better than expected. Finally, I’m still confused about the uselessness of all of the third party money in the campaign. It’s like Sheldon Adelson and his friends decided to show how private redistribution could work, so they just passed out hundreds of millions of their own dollars to see what a trickle-down effect could accomplish.
So, by Election Day, there were still seven toss-up Senate elections, four of which were held by Democrats. Let’s see how these elections went.
Indiana – Mourdock (one of the rape guys) managed to get 44.3% of the vote in Indiana. INDIANA??? The most reliably Republican state in the Midwest and he gets 4 out of every 9 votes?
Massachusetts – What chance did Scott Brown have? Obama gets 70% of the vote here; Brown gets 46%. This means that one out of every five Obama voters picked him. What more could the guy do? If Romney could have gotten 35%, Brown would have won. Was that too much to ask for a Presidential candidate to get in his own home state, where he had his campaign headquarters?
Montana – Tester, the incumbent Democrat, defeated a pretty good challenger, Denny Rehberg. The only thing that I can figure is that Tester relates to Montanans sort of like Manchin in West Virginia. He looks like them, talks like them, and tries hard not to take some wacky positions.
Nevada – Heller, the incumbent Republican held onto his seat against Berkley. Part of the reason for this can be attributed to the influx of third party money against her by Adelson. It seems that they used to be ‘close’, and Adelson spent a lot of his money to keep her out of the Senate. So I guess he can take some solace in this victory.
North Dakota – I know nothing about this race, other than North Dakota is reliably Republican, yet the Democrat , Heidi Heitkamp, won the election. If anyone knows what happened, I’d appreciate it.
Virginia – George Allen was scheduled to be the GOP Presidential nominee in 2008. Then, while running in 2006 for his Senate seat, he said something unbelievably stupid in an evolving state like Virginia. He lost that election, eventually driving the 2008 Republican presidential contest into chaos. He tried to re-start his political career, but it seems like his time is over.
Wisconsin – Like Virginia, Tommy Thompson tried to revive a moribund political career in this election. Also, like Virginia, it seems that Thompson’s time may have passed. He was a pretty good governor in his time, and it was thought that he could beat Baldwin. It was thought wrong…His opponent, Tammy Baldwin, became a minor cause celebre as the first openly gay member of the Senate.
I’m leaving out at least five other Democratic seats that could have been won in a better year or with better candidates.









November 9th, 2012 at 8:49 am
Sure seems to me that a lot more moderate, main-stream, Republican-Establishment candidates failed to get elected than Tea Party ones.
November 9th, 2012 at 8:53 am
Look at the converse, Andy. How many tp candidates won?
November 9th, 2012 at 11:10 am
I’m very curious to see what route the GOP takes to try and enlarge their tent over the next couple of years. What I’ve seen over the past two days – not a great barometer so soon after Election day – is that there is a sharp divide.
Half seem to want to ease up on the social issues, stick to the small-government fiscal conservative platform, and put more effort into finding candidates that are not seen as laughable (Akin, O’Donnell, Wrestlemania in Connecticut) by a significant portion of the voting public. Others seem to think that the party needs to take and even HARDER swing to the far right, that the real issue this election was that Romney wasn’t conservative enough to bring out the base.
It will certainly make for some interesting reading and viewing in the coming months.
November 9th, 2012 at 11:33 am
TA,
On a completely unrelated note, you were right about the hurricane and I was wrong. We were divided as to whether it was worse to have one in cold weather or hot.
Anyway, I never considered that a snowstorm would hit a week later; that certainly tips the scales. I hope everyone up there is recovering.
November 9th, 2012 at 11:37 am
Ass-achusetts elected Lizzie the Liar.
The Unions,women and Latinos won this election for Obummer.
Payback time BillyRay. Your beloved corrupt unions will now demand that NO state will have RIGHT to WORK.
No fear.Billy will wiggle some bucks for himself no matter what.
Glad he won. I now know how to plan my future.
I am retiring. My tax rate just decreased.
WHEN the TAKERS outvote the MAKERS—the Country will decline.
November 9th, 2012 at 12:18 pm
Thanks for that Arriba. Truly I got off easy in the storms – didn’t even lose power. Not so for many but we’re digging out. But a hurricane and a blizzard in the same week – too weird.
November 9th, 2012 at 2:53 pm
I think the contests in 2014 favor the GOP again. We ought to take the Alaska Senate race unless we do something stupid again up there. There are theoretical chances for a pickup in Arkansas, Montana, Minnesota, North Carolina, and South Dakota. But the TP will knock off a safe GOP incumbent or two and we’ll lose those races, so who knows how things will wash out.
November 9th, 2012 at 3:15 pm
I agree about 2014. Unfortunately, the gop will lose a ton of seats in 16, I’d bet.