Early voting results are not good for Barack Obama as Mitt Romney leads with Independent voters. In key swing states like Florida, Ohio and Iowa, the early voting results show Obama getting fewer Democrat votes than he did in 2008. For example, in Florida, the spread is 43% Democrats to 39% Republicans. This leaves 18% for Independents, who are expected to go for Romney at a ratio of 2-to-1, putting the state as a Romney win with 51% to 49%. Ohio, Colorado, Nevada and Iowa are very similar in terms of party affiliation and early voting trends. Between a lack of enthusiasm for Obama and seniors out of reach, Mitt Romney is a shoe-in to win.
The most recent polling data shows the races extremely tight now in states that had been leaning towards Obama, such as Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Even Minnesota appears to be in play now! In 2008, nearly every demographic group favored Obama, but that is no longer the case this time around. The largest, most effective voting block, senior citizens, have abandoned Obama, despite attempts by Obama to scare them. Likewise, Independents are also swinging away from Obama towards Romney in a huge way. Meanwhile, Obama core groups, such as the youth vote, are definitely showing a lack of enthusiasm. Even a drop of one or two percent could spell disaster for Obama.
The Liberal Media has been calling the election to be very close with Ohio as the key state. However, if they are wrong, and I believe they are, Romney has a 5 to 7 point advantage nationwide which will translate to Obama losing several states he won in 2008. I look to watching the results from Virginia and Pennsylvania as a guide to how the evening will go. The polls close in Virginia at 7pm and 8pm in PA. While Ohio closes at 7:30pm, we will probably see VA and PA called well before OH. If both states are declared as Romney wins, then Ohio becomes less important, but will probably also trend towards Romney. Especially if the wins in VA and PA are substantial.
So the early voting results for Obama are not looking good. Republicans turnout tends to be much stronger on the actual election day. Romney has Independent voters favoring him by a wide enough margin to overcome any advantage Obama enjoyed in 2008 and seniors are out of reach this time, too. The four long years of Obama-roids will soon be over as we discharge this pain in our butt with the national enema known as the 2012 election.