Early voting results are not good for Barack Obama as Mitt Romney leads with Independent voters. In key swing states like Florida, Ohio and Iowa, the early voting results show Obama getting fewer Democrat votes than he did in 2008. For example, in Florida, the spread is 43% Democrats to 39% Republicans. This leaves 18% for Independents, who are expected to go for Romney at a ratio of 2-to-1, putting the state as a Romney win with 51% to 49%. Ohio, Colorado, Nevada and Iowa are very similar in terms of party affiliation and early voting trends. Between a lack of enthusiasm for Obama and seniors out of reach, Mitt Romney is a shoe-in to win.
The most recent polling data shows the races extremely tight now in states that had been leaning towards Obama, such as Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Even Minnesota appears to be in play now! In 2008, nearly every demographic group favored Obama, but that is no longer the case this time around. The largest, most effective voting block, senior citizens, have abandoned Obama, despite attempts by Obama to scare them. Likewise, Independents are also swinging away from Obama towards Romney in a huge way. Meanwhile, Obama core groups, such as the youth vote, are definitely showing a lack of enthusiasm. Even a drop of one or two percent could spell disaster for Obama.
The Liberal Media has been calling the election to be very close with Ohio as the key state. However, if they are wrong, and I believe they are, Romney has a 5 to 7 point advantage nationwide which will translate to Obama losing several states he won in 2008. I look to watching the results from Virginia and Pennsylvania as a guide to how the evening will go. The polls close in Virginia at 7pm and 8pm in PA. While Ohio closes at 7:30pm, we will probably see VA and PA called well before OH. If both states are declared as Romney wins, then Ohio becomes less important, but will probably also trend towards Romney. Especially if the wins in VA and PA are substantial.
So the early voting results for Obama are not looking good. Republicans turnout tends to be much stronger on the actual election day. Romney has Independent voters favoring him by a wide enough margin to overcome any advantage Obama enjoyed in 2008 and seniors are out of reach this time, too. The four long years of Obama-roids will soon be over as we discharge this pain in our butt with the national enema known as the 2012 election.
November 5th, 2012 at 8:38 am
This is the amazing and continuing ten year Lie that those extremists unpatriotic scumbags in Congress have been keeping from Middle Class Americans!
The report Mitch McConnell and Grover Norquest doesn’t want you to see: When the GOP suppresses inconvenient factual truths, ‘This has hues of a banana republic’
KEEPING IT THOUGHTFULLY HONEST: The Congressional Research Service which has reputation for creditable and factual economic reports stated: Report found NO correlation between top tax rates and economic growth, a central tenet of conservative economic theory! However, this factual based, non-partisan report by Congressional Research Service was withdrawn after Senate Republicans desperately raised superficial arguments about the paper’s findings that is the central tenet of conservative economic theory of what most of us Middle Class American have suspected to be true that billionaires and millionaire with their tax breaks give-aways created NO American jobs, except in China and India! THE INCONVENIENT TRUTH: It is important in election because it clearly shows the Romney / Ryan so-call economic plan and their Congressional republicans put in serious question “the premise that lowering the top marginal tax rate stimulates economic growth and job creation.” Conclusion is “the Hungerford study was bound to be widely circulated. It emerged in the final months of a presidential campaign in which tax policy has been a central focus. Mr. Romney, the Republican nominee, maintains that any increase in the top tax rates on income and capital gains would slow economic growth and crush the job market’s recovery. So ten years later Senate Republican McConnell still wishes hide the facts so he protests both the tone of the report and its findings because the truth is finally getting out that the republican and the “Have it Alls” in the one percent have done nothing but got richer at the backs of the Middle Class American taxpayers! And I will close by saying that still there is NO DISCLOSURE of his income taxes! Shame on you, free press media
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/02/business/questions-raised-on-withdrawal-of-congressional-research-services-report-on-tax-rates.html?adxnnl=1&ref=business&adxnnlx=1351789536-jISNv5WiJ545EISxkBbd4Q
http://maddowblog.msnbc.com/_news/2012/11/02/14889448-the-report-mitch-mcconnell-doesnt-want-you-to-see?threadId=3603232&commentId=71646651#c71646651
November 5th, 2012 at 11:46 am
The Republicans (hopefully Conservatives) have a REAL chance to increase their House seats and take over the Senate by several seats.
Worthwhile reading for the day before the presidential election 2012:
Romney for President
The Obama record is unimpressive.
http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/332484/mitt-romney-president-editors
November 5th, 2012 at 12:19 pm
Hey A.J.
The CRS report was withdrawn.
http://www.nytimes.com/…/questions-raised-on-withdrawal-of-congression…4 days ago – The Congressional Research Service withdrew a report that found no correlation between top tax rates and economic growth after senators …
“The decision, made in late September against the advice of the agency’s economic team leadership, drew almost no notice at the time. Senator Charles E. Schumer, Democrat of New York, cited the study a week and a half after it was withdrawn in a speech on tax policy at the National Press Club.”
“Don Stewart, a spokesman for the Senate Republican leader, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, said Mr. McConnell and other senators “raised concerns about the methodology and other flaws.” Mr. Stewart added that people outside of Congress had also criticized the study and that officials at the research service “decided, on their own, to pull the study pending further review.”
Senate Republican aides said they had protested both the tone of the report and its findings. Aides to Mr. McConnell presented a bill of particulars to the research service that included objections to the use of the term “Bush tax cuts” and the report’s reference to “tax cuts for the rich,” which Republicans contended was politically freighted.
They also protested on economic grounds, saying that the author, Thomas L. Hungerford, was looking for a macroeconomic response to tax cuts within the first year of the policy change without sufficiently taking into account the time lag of economic policies. Further, they complained that his analysis had not taken into account other policies affecting growth, such as the Federal Reserve’s decisions on interest rates.
“There were a lot of problems with the report from a real, legitimate economic analysis perspective,” said Antonia Ferrier, a spokeswoman for the Senate Finance Committee’s Republicans. “We relayed them to C.R.S. It was a good discussion. We have a good, constructive relationship with them. Then it was pulled.”
Whats that you said ?
“KEEPING IT THOUGHTFULLY HONEST” ?
Try again bub.
November 5th, 2012 at 2:06 pm
Hey A.J. are you talking about the economic booms when Kennedy,Reagan and Bush lowered taxes. I lived through these three presidents terms and it enabled me to educate myself, no loans, educate my children, no loans, by homes, save and invest income and not be a burden but an asset to this country. I am in the Middle Class. Obama has done nothing but put many in the middle class into poverty. He has a proven record. I had to move from my middle class neighborhood because many of my neighbors lost their jobs and homes and crime became the norm. Moved for saftey reason. Thanks to the liberal Democrat Economic plan for the middle class.
November 5th, 2012 at 2:40 pm
“The Liberal Media has been calling the election to be very close with Ohio as the key state. However, if they are wrong, and I believe they are, Romney has a 5 to 7 point advantage nationwide which will translate to Obama losing several states he won in 2008.”
The “liberal” media is merely citing most polls and as any statistician will tell you extreme outliers are generally just that, “outliers”.
Especially when there are numerous polls available that utilize a wide range of models.
So how is this the “liberal” media, when in fact it would have to be the “liberal” polling? While they could be wrong, I don’t think most polls have a “horse in the race” (except for obvious ones, Rasmussen, perhaps Marist, etc.).
Since most of them make their living assessing markets for private industry, being purposely wrong for political reasons would be financial suicide.
November 5th, 2012 at 2:59 pm
It’s not so much the liberal media, but polling assumptions used by them. The polls showing Obama leading are the ones assuming the same record high Democrat turnout for Obama as last time. Almost nobody really believes that will happen again, so you see other polling outfits like Gallup and Rasmussen adjusting their models, and probably rightfully so.
It is true that the liberal media outfits like Washington Post/CBS/NYT are using polling outfits that are applying the 2008 turnout ratios. That makes little sense, so it is reasonable to ask if this is liberal bias at work or merely incompetence?
November 5th, 2012 at 4:17 pm
I have the same concern as the robust youth vote may very well have been a once in a lifetime event. In fact, I am legitimately concerned that they will “not show up” in record numbers.
White people of a certain age vote and because of the first debate they found their energy.
The GOP, as currently constructed, will never win another presidential election and will have quite a dilemma on their hands. They know they have to build a bigger tent, but the religious right and the Tea Party are extremists and exclusionary, so how do they grow the brand in a country with rapidly changing demographics?
I have to admit Romney has been very effective. He took a hard right during the primaries, which somehow evolved into a contest of who was the “most conservative) (Michelle Bachmann, really?) and then reversed course to the middle in the general. Very smart and I always wondered why other candidates did not do this.
In the general, the heck with the extreme edges of the right, who the heck else are the going to vote for?
This election is very much the last stand of the white electorate and I believe Romney may capture over 70% of it, so yes, I am concerned, despite the polls. Heck, even in light of the gambling odds, which as I have said many times before, are my bellwether.
November 5th, 2012 at 6:48 pm
I’m part of a latino trend that doesn’t like coming here just to discover we are slowly drifting back to the banana republics and bad governments we left behind. We admire the Christian values that became the foundation of the nation and we know by experience the results of throwing them away.
November 6th, 2012 at 6:55 am
Just heard a pundit on one of the morning shows say that Team Obama is counting on the historic average of 74% whites making up the electorate today will be lower than usual, giving them a win. So there ya go. Its all about racial politics with Obama and the Democrats.