Here’s a score sheet that might help you be prepared for election night. Just print it out and fill in who won the state once it’s declared for a candidate.
| Presidential Winner Projection Scoresheet | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Time Polls Close (EST) | Electoral Votes | Winner | Obama Total | Romney Total |
| IN | 7:00 | 11 | |||
| KY | 7:00 | 8 | |||
| GA | 7:00 | 16 | |||
| SC | 7:00 | 9 | |||
| VT | 7:00 | 3 | |||
| VA | 7:00 | 13 | |||
| NC | 7:30 | 15 | |||
| OH | 7:30 | 18 | |||
| WV | 7:30 | 5 | |||
| CT | 8:00 | 7 | |||
| DE | 8:00 | 3 | |||
| DC | 8:00 | 3 | |||
| ME | 8:00 | 3 | |||
| MD | 8:00 | 10 | |||
| MA | 8:00 | 11 | |||
| NH | 8:00 | 4 | |||
| NJ | 8:00 | 14 | |||
| PA | 8:00 | 20 | |||
| RI | 8:00 | 4 | |||
| TN | 8:00 | 11 | |||
| AL | 8:00 | 9 | |||
| FL | 8:00 | 29 | |||
| IL | 8:00 | 20 | |||
| MS | 8:00 | 6 | |||
| OK | 8:00 | 7 | |||
| SD | 8:00 | 3 | |||
| AR | 8:30 | 6 | |||
| NY | 9:00 | 29 | |||
| LA | 9:00 | 8 | |||
| MI | 9:00 | 16 | |||
| NE | 9:00 | 4 | |||
| WI | 9:00 | 10 | |||
| AZ | 9:00 | 11 | |||
| CO | 9:00 | 9 | |||
| NM | 9:00 | 5 | |||
| SD | 9:00 | 3 | |||
| TX | 9:00 | 38 | |||
| WY | 9:00 | 3 | |||
| IA | 10:00 | 6 | |||
| ND | 10:00 | 3 | |||
| KS | 10:00 | 6 | |||
| MT | 10:00 | 3 | |||
| UT | 10:00 | 6 | |||
| NV | 10:00 | 6 | |||
| ND | 11:00 | 3 | |||
| CA | 11:00 | 55 | |||
| ID | 11:00 | 4 | |||
| OR | 11:00 | 7 | |||
| WA | 11:00 | 12 | |||
| HI | 11:00 | 4 | |||
| AK | 12:00 | 16 | |||
November 6th, 2012 at 6:56 am
When do we get to yell “BINGO!”???
November 6th, 2012 at 8:42 pm
They just called Ohio for Obama. Game over. I know you tried your best to warn everybody, but they just chose disaster voluntarily. As for me, my conscience is clean; I will now focus more completely on taking care of my family. Being a Latino, I’ve watched this movie already and I already know the ending. Take care!
November 6th, 2012 at 9:13 pm
Tomorrow’s right wing rhetoric.
“Obama narrowly wins, but fails to gain a mandate”
Sort of a “yes, he won, but…”
Meanwhile, Donald Trump continues the search.
November 6th, 2012 at 9:50 pm
I’ll be the first to say it, not because I’m a sore loser, but because things just dont add up.
Something stinks.
And it might just be complacent conservatives.
Bradley effect, whatever.
November 6th, 2012 at 9:56 pm
The winners are the polls, as most were right on the money.
It turns out arithmetic works.
November 6th, 2012 at 9:58 pm
It is 12:30 Eastern Time and I just saw an advertisement for Obama.
Same thing happened in the last election, although I can’t remember who’s ad it was.
I know how it happens, but it still seems odd.
November 6th, 2012 at 10:30 pm
buzz,
I worked with a pretty big deal pollster while in school. I’ve felt bad that web sites like unskewed polls arose to convince gop supporters that the polls were nonsense this year.
I was watching joe scarborough one day when he criticized silver for his model, saying that people vote for a lot of reasons, so you can’t quantify it. Inadvertently, I screamed so loudly, Mrs. Arriba asked if I hurt myself.
November 6th, 2012 at 11:18 pm
The polls were about right in most of the battleground states and in the national vote. Rasmussen nailed it within a point. The liberal pollster groups like Washington Post, CBS, etc were off about 3-4 points. The undecideds broke 2-1 for Obama in the last day which made the difference.
November 6th, 2012 at 11:28 pm
McCain – the averages of the polls did a much better job than any one poll, including Rasmussen.
““It’s somewhat surprising that heading into the final weekend of the election season, we are unable to confidently project who is likely to win the White House,” Scott Rasmussen writes in his latest weekly newspaper column.”
Contrast this with something like the NYTimes’ Nate Silver who uses aggregate polling results (including “liberal” pollsters) and predicted every state (so far) correctly, and placed Obama’s chances of winning the electoral college at above 90%.
November 7th, 2012 at 12:21 am
Mmm yeah, but given the closeness of the race that was not credible. He is a liberal cheerleader. Nobody predicts 90% certainly that someone will win by 1.5%. LOL. The actual odds were about 2 in 3.
November 7th, 2012 at 12:29 am
“Nobody predicts 90% certainly that someone will win by 1.5%.”
The dynamics of the electoral college were such that yes, there was a 90% probability Obama would win the electoral vote.
Silver did have the popular vote at 50.8% Obama, 48.3% Romney, but as you know, it’s WHERE you get the votes that count.
Incidentally, Silver’s model predicted 49 of the 49 called states correctly before the election (Florida still outstanding), so it gives his model a ton of credibility.
November 7th, 2012 at 12:50 am
Noooo, there was a 2 in 3 chance according to the betting markets which are mostly not partisan cheerleaders like that manufactured hero of liberal unthinkers. And 2/3 was about right given the narrowness of the swing states.
Do you know what Nate Silver predicted in 2004?
November 7th, 2012 at 1:06 am
“Do you know what Silver predicted in 2004?” Actually I don’t. I tried googling it just now, but I don’t see that Silver had any serious documented models before 2007.
I know what he predicted in 2008.
And I know what he predicted in 2012.
He may very well be a “liberal cheerleader”, but it appears his model for presidential elections had pretty darn accurate for the past two elections, especially when you break it down state-by-state. This is probably is function of better polling, but credit the model for using aggregate polling results instead of trying to “unskew” them.
November 7th, 2012 at 1:11 am
And no, the election betting markets are not partisan. There are very dumb people there throwing their money away in the hopes of either influencing perception of the true odds, or just blind hoping the polls are wrong in aggregate.
And there are some big money losers there tonight, for sure.
November 7th, 2012 at 1:21 am
Soo you believe there is one guy in the entire world who is smarter than everyone else, and you dont know what he predicted before 2008?
To what do you attribute your leap of faith?
November 7th, 2012 at 1:25 am
“Soo you believe there is one guy in the entire world who is smarter than everyone else, and you dont know what he predicted before 2008?”
Um, no. I believe there is guy who understands statistics and probabilities, and has created a sound model that takes all of the polls, removes outliers. Most importantly, it has had very accurate results.
This isn’t so much about politics as it is about good forecasting. And on a side note, it’s about people who refuse to believe anything that goes against what they want to hear, even when it’s supported by good data.
November 7th, 2012 at 1:26 am
Just one? LOL.
90% probability.
Are you his girlfriend or something? Nobody has a guy’s back like you. So cool.
November 7th, 2012 at 1:37 am
It’s tough to admit you’re wrong, I understand.
Not sure where you translate “a guy” to “one guy” who understands stats and probabilities. Even the HuffPost predicted 50 out of 50. It’s not rocket science. In fact politics was a prime place to start using stats, since so much of the punditry is not rational in their predictions.
Also note that Silver’s projections on the popular vote are going to be extremely close to the actual percentage splits for Obama and Romney.
“Are you his girlfriend or something?” Wonderful. Ad hominem.
This is not about Silver, he’s not a wizard or some god, or even a genius, it’s about methods and principles of deduction. I find it amazing how much of the Right vilified him, when all he was doing was making predictions that turned out to be just about perfect. That’s 49 for 50 in 2008, and 50 for 50 in 2012. This is not luck or “cheerleading”.
November 7th, 2012 at 1:44 am
Oops just re-read my 16 comment – I meant to write “there is a guy” so I see the confusion.
By the way, do I win the election prediction award? I believe I was the closest according to the first rule
“There will be two winners, whoever is closest to the correct answer while at the same time guessing the actual winner in each category (popular vote, electoral vote). The winner will receive the highly coveted Rightpunditeer award, a virtual trophy which will be mounted for eternity on this website for all to know that you came and conquered.”
I would love to receive the highly coveted Rightpunditeer award. But I supposed the second part of the rules would preclude me from winning:
“There shall be no disputes as the determination of the winner will be made by myself, and my determination is final.”
November 7th, 2012 at 1:54 am
About methods, yes. The RCP average forcing all tossup states called them all correctly too, except it appears possibly Florida which hasn’t been called yet. And that idiot makes a job out of repeating averages as if they were something new so that unaware liberals like you (impressionable but sweet) can feel optimistic before an election. It was a close election, and GOTV would have sent it one way other other but it conformed to expectations.
What was your guess, sweetie? You are the winner if you got it right!
November 7th, 2012 at 1:59 am
From the predictions thread
25
Jackie Moon Says:
November 6th, 2012 at 10:41 am
1. Romney 48.3%, Obama 50.8%
2. Romney 225, Obama 313