This long, long election season is finally ending this weekend. It’s difficult for anything to happen in the next couple of days that will change people’s minds. For people living in swing states, there have been billions of dollars in negative ads; I assume that they have also been inundated with a plethora of telephone calls begging them to vote. For the rest of us, other than the debates, it has been a clam fall, as neither political party wastes their money on our vote.

Here are the latest battleground poll, from Real Clear Politics:




2012 Swing States Polls, 11/4

State Mitt Romney (R) Barack Obama (D) Electoral Votes Current Leader
CO 47.6% 48.2% 9 Obama +0.6%

FL 49.1% 47.7% 29 Romney +1.4%

IA 45.3% 47.8% 6 Obama +2.5%

MI 45.4% 49.2% 16 Obama +3.8%

NV 47.4% 50.2% 6 Obama +2.8%

NH 47.5% 49.0% 4 Obama +1.5%

NC 49.8% 46.0% 15 Romney +3.8%

OH 46.5% 49.3% 18 Obama +2.8%

PA 45.3% 49.4% 20 Obama +4.1%

VA 47.9% 47.6% 13 Romney +0.3%

WI 46.2% 50.4% 10 Obama +4.2%




It’s pretty clear that whatever bounce President Obama received from Hurricane Sandy has already begun to dissipate. Since Friday, almost all of the battleground states has seen either Romney increasing his lead or Obama’s lead shrinking. We would expect this trend to continue until Tuesday.