This long, long election season is finally ending this weekend. It’s difficult for anything to happen in the next couple of days that will change people’s minds. For people living in swing states, there have been billions of dollars in negative ads; I assume that they have also been inundated with a plethora of telephone calls begging them to vote. For the rest of us, other than the debates, it has been a clam fall, as neither political party wastes their money on our vote.
Here are the latest battleground poll, from Real Clear Politics:
| 2012 Swing States Polls, 11/4 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Mitt Romney (R) | Barack Obama (D) | Electoral Votes | Current Leader |
| CO | 47.6% | 48.2% | 9 | Obama +0.6% |
| FL | 49.1% | 47.7% | 29 | Romney +1.4% |
| IA | 45.3% | 47.8% | 6 | Obama +2.5% |
| MI | 45.4% | 49.2% | 16 | Obama +3.8% |
| NV | 47.4% | 50.2% | 6 | Obama +2.8% |
| NH | 47.5% | 49.0% | 4 | Obama +1.5% |
| NC | 49.8% | 46.0% | 15 | Romney +3.8% |
| OH | 46.5% | 49.3% | 18 | Obama +2.8% |
| PA | 45.3% | 49.4% | 20 | Obama +4.1% |
| VA | 47.9% | 47.6% | 13 | Romney +0.3% |
| WI | 46.2% | 50.4% | 10 | Obama +4.2% |
It’s pretty clear that whatever bounce President Obama received from Hurricane Sandy has already begun to dissipate. Since Friday, almost all of the battleground states has seen either Romney increasing his lead or Obama’s lead shrinking. We would expect this trend to continue until Tuesday.
November 4th, 2012 at 7:14 am
Latest poll in MI this morning has Romney leading 49-48 and PA is a dead-even tie. Its beginning to look a lot like LANDSLIDE!!!
November 4th, 2012 at 1:35 pm
I will gladly take 270-268
November 4th, 2012 at 1:40 pm
What Michigan Poll is that.
RealClearPolitics has six polls. Five range from an Obama advantage of 3 to 6.
One poll, Baydoun/Foster (who?) has Romney ahead by one.
Poll shopping?
I have a friend that I golf with who always claims the weather forecast is “great”.
I am pretty sure he looks at 10 sites and finds one outlier.
Which one are you referring to? I mean, even Rasmussen has it at plus 5.
Just out of curiosity? Landslide?
Wishful thinking or do you really believe that?
November 4th, 2012 at 1:42 pm
Doesn’t Arriba’s table above indicate four more years of Obama?
November 5th, 2012 at 6:18 am
Buzz,
The RCP averages usually cover a two-week spread of polling results. While this may be warm and fuzzy to the Subjectivists out there, it hardly reflects human behavior. For example, the latest poll in Iowa shows Obama up by by a few points, but the data also shows about 5% who have made a decision but refuse to tell whom they are voting for. Even the publisher of the Des Moines Registar admits that the state could break for Romney. It would not be the first time that an election took a hard turn in the last 96 hours.
We could get into the modeling and methodology, how most of the polls taken are using 2008 as a baseline for turn out. Dick Morris, who is way out on a limb, is actually averaging turnout based on 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2010. This is how he gets to Romney walking away in a landslide. The Media is mistaken if they think the Tea Party is dead. Tomorrow night the Media will learn a lesson.