A lot of polls have been released in the last few days; pollsters have concentrated their efforts on the swing states that will determine the Presidential election. In the newer polls, we can see the initial effects of Hurricane Sandy upon the respondents.

Here are the latest swing state polls from Real Clear Politics:




2012 Swing States Polls, 10/28

State Mitt Romney (R) Barack Obama (D) Electoral Votes Current Leader
CO 47.7% 48.6% 9 Obama +0.9%

FL 49.1% 47.9% 29 Romney +1.2%

IA 46.2% 48.2% 6 Obama +2.0%

MI 44.7% 47.7% 16 Obama +3.0%

NV 47.3% 50.0% 6 Obama +2.7%

NH 47.0% 49.0% 4 Obama +2.0%

NC 49.8% 46.0% 15 Romney +3.8%

OH 46.6% 48.9% 18 Obama +2.3%

PA 44.8% 49.4% 20 Obama +4.6%

VA 47.9% 47.4% 13 Romney +0.5%

WI 45.0% 50.0% 10 Obama +5.0%




There are some notable features about these results when compared to those from a couple of days ago. First, typically when a disaster strikes, whether natural or man-made, we see an increase in a President’s popularity unless he has performed incompetently. This has not been the case here. In most of the swing states, the race continues to tighten. Secondly, it appears that Romney’s stranglehold on the Southern states is now complete. His lead in Virginia, Florida, and North Carolina has continued to grow. The implication to this is that, as we’ve believed since summer, the Rust Belt is the key to victory.