There will be no clear winners after Super Tuesday.
And here’s my analysis:
Now that the SC primary is past us, here is the delegate count to date:
Republican: 1,191 Delegates needed to win
Romney 59
Huckabee 40
McCain 39
Democrat: 2,026 Delegates needed to win
Clinton 246
Obama 179
Edwards 52
Here’s my analysis: on the Democrat side, there are 1700 delegates at stake with California (370), New York (232) and Illinois 153) as delegate-rich states that award delegates based on a proportion of the popular vote. Even if a candidate won every delegate in every state, they cannot win the nomination on Super Tuesday.
For Clinton, 246+ 1700 = 1946 delegates.
However, Obama is expected to win Illinois, and since the major states are not winner-take-all, it is impossible for any candidate to wrap it up – not even Clinton.
The key on the Democrat side, which none of them want to admit, is that the 800 elected officials who comprise the Super Delegates will hold the sway. My prediction is if the Dems get to the Convention with Obama close or winning, then the super delegates will make sure that Hillary wins. A Democratic system, no?
Ok, on the Republican side, there are 1,191 delegates at stake, with 1000 delegates up for grabs on Super Tuesday. The major GOP states are winner-take-all, so mathematically, there is a chance of someone walking away with almost enough delegates for the nomination. Romney could stand at 1,059, Huckabee at 1,040 or McCain at 1,036. However, the chances of anyone winning all the states are slim and a three-way horse race is possible.
On Feb. 12, Maryland (99 Dem, 37 GOP), votes. Although I really don’t think Maryland will turn out to be a battleground state, it definitely appears that the states that chose to wait will actually be the ones to decide the election this year - the early bird doesn’t get the worm!
After Super Tuesday on March 4, Ohio (161 Dem, 85 GOP) and Texas (228 Dem, 137 GOP) may help to decide.
This has certainly turned into an intersting election year!
January 27th, 2008 at 5:50 am
Do you really think the super delegates will make the difference?
I will be the first to admit that I don’t understand the super delegate process (and their importance) as well as I should. I’ll bet most people don’t. That would be an interesting topic in the future.
Do you think Huckabee will be able to hang in the race past Super Tuesday? I hear that he is literally broke, with the exception of paying for advertising on Wissing’s site.
Your post definitely has me re-thinking some things.
January 27th, 2008 at 5:52 am
BTW – Off topic – I made the world’s worst pot of coffee this morning. My wife almost threw up after one swallow.
January 27th, 2008 at 5:54 am
One last thing – who exactly are the super delegates?
January 27th, 2008 at 6:27 am
MDeFl – my father made the coffee this morning – and it was pretty good – perhaps I’ll have him send you the recipe? After 91 years, I think he sort has figured out how to do it right!
As for the super delegates – I thought I did a post on it, but I can’t find it right now.
Super Delegates are elected Dem party officials. The “Super Delegate” system was set up
MSNBC: “It’s called the Democratic Party, but one aspect of the party’s nominating process is at odds with grass-roots democracy.
Voters don’t choose the 842 unpledged “super-delegates� who comprise nearly 40 percent of the number of delegates needed to clinch the Democratic nomination.
The category includes Democratic governors and members of Congress, former presidents Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter, former vice president Al Gore, retired congressional leaders such as Dick Gephardt, and all Democratic National Committee members, some of whom are appointed by party chairman Howard Dean.
Before 1972, party elders, such as Chicago Mayor Richard Daley and Charlie Buckley, the boss of The Bronx who helped John Kennedy clinch the 1960 nomination, wielded inordinate power.
But in early 1970’s, the party’s rules were reformed to open the process to grass-roots activists, women, and ethnic minorities.
Sen. George McGovern, the leading anti-Vietnam war liberal, won the 1972 nomination. McGovern turned out to be a disaster as a presidential candidate, winning only one state and the District of Columbia.
So without reverting to the days of party bosses like Buckley, the Democrats decided to guarantee that elected officials would have a bigger voice in the nomination.”
So there you have it – 40% of the delegates are super delegates. All those folks that you see on the floor of the Dem convention should be viewed in a new light – the super delegates are not nearly as racially diverse as the Dems would like you to believe – and they can definitely keep some upstart black man, like Obama from getting the nomination….
January 27th, 2008 at 6:31 am
I honestly don’t think people really understand this at all! Does the GOP have a similar system?
We should highlight this in a post. Could Bill Clinton really still be a super delegate?
January 27th, 2008 at 6:46 am
No – the GOP does not have the system. I will put all this in a post.
January 27th, 2008 at 8:56 am
“Maryland!?” she mock shrieked. Why, no dear -you have it all wrong. OHIO will be the decider.
January 27th, 2008 at 10:20 am
How about PA? Wouldn’t it be nice if PA, OH and MD make the difference for the GOP. On the Dem side, as MBT has detailed, it does not matter since it is a totally party controlled system.
The dem primaries are nothing more than a joke.
January 27th, 2008 at 11:45 am
Jill – your blog, http://www.writeslikeshetalks.com would LOVE for Ohio to be the battle ground state (again). You would get, like a bazillion visitors to your site!
Thanks for the nice plug for us on your site!
Actually, this might actually make it to the convention floor – what an exciting election year! Almost like when I was a kid and the different states all duked it out in dueling harangues on the convention floor! (am I showing my age here?)
January 27th, 2008 at 11:55 am
MBT – it’s my pleasure to read your take – and that was very generous of you on my blog to give the insight of getting the numbers originally from MSNBC. I am NOT a numbers person most of the time, though I like them, I can’t figure them out a lot of the time (okay, let’s just say they make my head hurt when I do).
Yes – the analyses that have John Edwards in a bargaining position are particularly interesting. I am, as yet, very undecided – my top candidates are all gone – Biden, Dodd and Richardson. I’m totally bummed. Clinton almost never made it even into my top five and Obama and Edwards were at the bottom. The “quizzes” that you can take to match you up tend to tell me that Obama is my best match.
Sigh – see? I really wanted Ohio not to matter!
January 27th, 2008 at 12:55 pm
Jill, unfortunately, we seem to be in a leadership vaccum in both parties. I wonder if that says anything about how elections are run at the local level – which provides the farm team for the national offices….?
Unfortunately, we’re both going to have to choose. I
took that quiz – and I was close to Rudy, and VERY far from Obama and Hillary…
At least I guess it means that we are both in the correct party!
January 27th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
I am a Rudy supporter. I think there are 3 dozen of us left.
January 27th, 2008 at 1:13 pm
MBT, this is a cool post. The delegate count is so weird in close primaries. We haven’t had a close primary in a generation and now we have two this year!
I’m glad California matters. We are bigger than Texas, really.
Jill, knowing that your liberal blog linked us today, I posted a naughty scandal post about a British politician for your liberal friends to secretly enjoy. You owe me one.
MDefl, it is more difficult to complain about the coffee when you make it yourself. Did you forget the filter again? Advise: more gets done for you by waking up late.
January 27th, 2008 at 2:15 pm
Naughty scandal?? Where? Where? We’ve had a good dose of them in Ohio lately.
FYI, I became an official co-blogger at The Moderate Voice last week. Don’t know if you folks ever visit it or not, but I’ve liked it for a long time.
January 27th, 2008 at 4:30 pm
Jill – I’ll check it out! Don’t you have enough politics to keep you busy for a while?
January 27th, 2008 at 4:46 pm
My wife just loves it when I wake up late! Yea, it really goes over big.
January 28th, 2008 at 4:22 am
MDeFl – got the recipe for coffee yet?
January 28th, 2008 at 4:43 pm
MBT – Did you send me the recipe? All help is greatly appreciated. Is Howard County in southern Maryland? I ask because I live 4 miles from Villanova where Wissing went to college. My wife is an alum as well although it was for her Masters and she still considers Temple to be her school.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:00 am
MDeFl – one scoop grounds for every 2 cups of coffee. Use something besides Folger’s, Starbucks or 8 O’Clock coffee!
Howard County is sandwiched between the DC suburbs and the Baltimore suburbs – right in the middle of the state. We are the only county that does not border on another state or the Bay…
It sounds like we should get together for dinner or something…! I met with DUKE!!! from THR about a year ago – I wonder how she’s doing? Her little girl was very cute too! She also came to a county GOP function with her husband once. It is kind of fun to meet your fellow bloggers – but it does sort of blow their persona somewhat!
for that reason, lisab does not want to meet anyone – she likes the mystery! 
January 29th, 2008 at 5:07 am
Getting together would be great. I estimate that I am 2.5 hours away by car.
Clearly, I am making the coffee too strong. Thanks foer the tip.
August 27th, 2009 at 7:34 am
Cool point of view you have there, did you know that this nearly doesnt happen in some countries at all, although they do similar things but not exactly the same. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sLJf4k-Sc8c