The Republican National Convention begins next Monday in Tampa, Florida. It was a calculated gamble to place the RNC in Florida during hurricane season. Florida has been a key swing state in every presidential election this century, so the additional enthusiasm it provides can give the campaign the impetus it would need to win the Sunshine State. However, weather in the Gulf region during the summer is always tricky.
Tampa is a particularly problematic locale since it is rated as the city most likely to be vulnerable to a hurricane. However, the likelihood of one hitting any place at a certain time is always low, even in the height of hurricane season. But it turns out that, right now, a tropical storm is threatening Cuba and is likely to eventually threaten Florida. Currently, this storm, Tropical Depression 9, is southeast of Cuba and is steadily moving toward the island nation. It is expected that it will hit Cuba on Sunday with wind speeds then of about 100 miles per hour.
But that is when the computer models diverge. One model expects a direct hit on west central Florida, which would obviously impact Tampa. Another model shows the storm going up the eastern Florida coast, which would bring heavy rains to Tampa, but no extensive damage. Other models predict that the storm will move into the Atlantic Ocean after it hits Cuba, which would obviously reduce the damage.
If it hits Florida next week, it could cause major problems for the GOP. It would be difficult to move the convention at this late date, since plans have already been made. Besides, until the hurricane actually strikes, nobody knows where it will hit land and how much damage it will cause. A few hours before Katrina, it was predicted that it would directly strike New Orleans. Then, it shifted eastward and eventually directly struck 40 or 50 miles to the east. That is why the problems in NOLA were caused by flooding, rather than winds.
If it would directly strike any part of Florida, it could cause a problem. Since Floridians would expect assistance. It’s likely that some attendees will call for aid; others would take more of a laissez faire approach.
August 21st, 2012 at 11:05 am
Would be totally fun if the storm turns north and makes a direct hit on the White House.
August 21st, 2012 at 11:50 am
Well, I’ll say it. Since the theme of the GOP convention is based upon a lie and a smear (appropriate), I would not be surprised if God blew it away.
God does not like liars.
August 21st, 2012 at 5:56 pm
Since naming Ryan threw Florida, a hurricane may be a blessing.
August 21st, 2012 at 6:07 pm
Naming Ryan threw Florida ?
“In Florida, where seniors were 22 percent of voters in the 2008 election, Obama pollsters John Anzalone and Jeff Liszt called the Ryan pick a “game changer” that could “immediately erode” Romney’s advantage with senior voters.
But two Florida polls conducted since Ryan’s selection suggest that voters who are 65 and older support Ryan and his budget plan more than younger voters do. A third Florida poll released this week doesn’t include an age breakdown, but finds the state’s voters agreeing more with Ryan’s description of his budget and Medicare plan than with Democratic criticisms that it would “end Medicare as we know it.”
With Medicare projected to be unable to cover all its expenses beginning in 2024, House Budget Chairman Ryan has proposed changing it, when those now 54 and younger retire, from a guaranteed fee-for-service program to one in which the government subsidizes the purchase of private insurance.
In a SurveyUSA poll this week for WFLA-TV in Tampa, 43 percent of registered Florida voters and 53 percent of seniors had a favorable view of Ryan. Ryan was viewed unfavorably by 32 percent of voters and 30 percent of seniors. In the 50-64 age group, 36 percent viewed Ryan favorably compared to 45 percent unfavorably. The base sample of 590 registered voters had a margin of error of 4.1 percent.
A Rasmussen poll of likely Florida voters with a margin of error of 4.5 percent found similar results: 43 percent of all voters said Ryan was the right choice for Romney and 32 percent disapproved. Among seniors, 54 percent liked the Ryan selection and only 22 percent disapproved.
Rasmussen asked Florida voters whether Ryan’s Medicare plan or the Medicare changes in the federal health care law “scares you more.” By a 48-to-41 percent margin, Floridians said the health care law was scarier. Among seniors, the health care law was rated scarier by 54 percent, with 34 percent saying they were more frightened by the Ryan plan.”
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/news/state-regional-govt-politics/polls-ryan-choice-not-hurting-romney-among-florida/nRDgx/
Try again
August 21st, 2012 at 7:02 pm
Arrived Tampa yesterday. So far the bumper stickers are running about even. Billy Ray’s stickers are on hybrids or old vans. Saw one on a Saturn. They still make those?
Hurricanes are like PMS…bitchy and wishy washy. This one might hit Ray Nagin’s house.
August 21st, 2012 at 7:18 pm
I love ya Faye.
But…bumper sticker polling ?
August 21st, 2012 at 8:34 pm
A Rasmussen Poll?
They make Fox Polls appear liberal.
4.5% margin of error or a 7% bias?
According to Rasmussen Obama should have conceded six months ago.
August 21st, 2012 at 8:35 pm
Liberals can control the weather.
The convention is doomed
August 21st, 2012 at 8:37 pm
Buzz, go ahead, knock the source.
That just means your argument sucks.
Rasmussens numbers are a lot more reliable than hearsay
August 21st, 2012 at 8:38 pm
According to the Wall Street Journal…
“A Democratic ticket featuring Obama and Vice President Joe Biden gets support from 48 percent of registered voters, and a Republican ticket of Romney and new running mate Paul Ryan gets 44 percent.
These numbers are only slightly changed from July, when Obama led Romney by six points in the survey, 49 percent to 43 percent, suggesting a minimal bounce for Romney (if at all) after this month’s Ryan pick.”
August 21st, 2012 at 8:48 pm
Buzz, you are citing a “registered voters” poll. Don’t compare apples and oranges. Likely voters are all that matters in election polling.
August 21st, 2012 at 9:02 pm
Old retired/retiring Floridians will be the likely voters.
They, and any informed person knows they’re scared shtless of Barry siphoning 500-690 billion off Medicare to pay for Barrycare.
Ryan ran off all the sections numbers and provisions of Barrys bill that confirmed this with Hannity today.
Bottom line is this.
You’re saying Ryan threw Florida is wishful thinking.
But dont worry, the massive carbon deposits to Tampas sky will attract the hurricane
August 22nd, 2012 at 4:30 am
Hopefully Hurricane Isaac will blow Joe Biden and the Occupy folks out to sea.
August 22nd, 2012 at 4:39 am
@Mick
I live in a small town.
Tampa is huge so I started checking out bumper stickers.
My favorite is NoGoBo….
and I love ya too!
August 22nd, 2012 at 6:33 am
I walk my dog early in the morning, just before sunrise. If I see a car with Obama stickers, I write stuff in the dew on their windshields.
August 22nd, 2012 at 7:14 am
“I walk my dog early in the morning, just before sunrise. If I see a car with Obama stickers, I write stuff in the dew on their windshields.”
Classy.
And what do you write?
August 22nd, 2012 at 7:16 am
I watched the Hannitty “interview” with Ryan last night.
I hope he zipped up Ryan’s pants when he was done.
Example of a question?
With all that is happening in Spain and Greece and all of Europe and the entitlement programs is it possible that it could happen here?
It is obvious that a Ryan staffer wrote the questions.
August 22nd, 2012 at 7:56 am
“I hope he zipped up Ryan’s pants when he was done.”
And you question my class without knowing what I wrote on those windshields ?
Really dude, wtf ?
“Example of a question?
With all that is happening in Spain and Greece and all of Europe and the entitlement programs is it possible that it could happen here?
It is obvious that a Ryan staffer wrote the questions.”
Right. Is your best argument always presumptive crap pulled outcher ass ?
August 22nd, 2012 at 8:11 am
I guess if I was an OWSer I’d get a pass for shtting and p!ssing on the car.
My personal opinion of anyone using bumper stickers, especially political stickers, is very offensive.
I also feel the same way about these ugly obnoxious campaign posters that have taken over my beautiful little town in Kaneohe Hi.
And who the hell buys a $50,000 car and then puts a campaign sticker on the bumper ?
Its like mixing Pepsi with Courvoisier while risking some punk keying your paint job.
Oh, the same goes for those fckin stickers on all my produce
August 22nd, 2012 at 8:16 am
Buzz, you are right that was an uncomfortably softball interview. It’s the mirror image of a typical mainstream media host interviewing a Democrat which happens all the time time on television but you prolly don’t notice.
August 22nd, 2012 at 4:22 pm
I hope not. Every time one of those things has a track that brings it near the Gulf I worry. Life is hard enough without one of those damn storms. Last major one to hit here – Ivan – knocked out my house and the place I was working at.
August 22nd, 2012 at 5:04 pm
“Buzz, you are right that was an uncomfortably softball interview. It’s the mirror image of a typical mainstream media host interviewing a Democrat which happens all the time time on television but you prolly don’t notice.”
Oh, I knew that comment was coming, I simply expected it within five minutes. What took so long?
Dinner break?
August 23rd, 2012 at 10:30 am
It’s Hurricane Romney coming in. It should give him the bounce in the polls.