Cable news is still trying to position the primary season as a sea of confusion with no clear front-runner for either party. Of course, this supposed “uncertainty” benefits the cable networks since it creates an air of excitement that results in an increase in viewers for each network. Obviously, this leads to an increase in advertising revenue. As usual, it is a matter of dollars and cents. A closer examination into both races and it becomes evident that there are clear favorites now for both the Republican and Democratic nominees for President of The United States.

First, let’s take a look at the Republican race since there are more viable candidates on the GOP side at the moment. Mitt Romney now has to be viewed as the favorite. At first glance, this does not seem to make sense given John McCain’s victories in South Carolina and New Hampshire. These were the states that McCain put the most focus on and he won both of them. Why would McCain not be viewed as the favorite? Because he has benefited immensely from Rudy Giuliani’s disappearing act. McCain and Giuliani both court similar, although not exactly the same type of voter. They are both the Commander-In-Chief candidates, appealing to those whose primary concern is the war on terror. Rudy would have hurt McCain in both South Carolina and New Hampshire had he decided to run in lieu of making Florida his equivalent of a goal line stance.

Florida has become a do or die election for Giuliani. He has been staked out there for the better part of a month and if you believe Fred Barnes of Fox News, he will be competitive due to Florida’s liberal primary rules for early and absentee voters. Fred’s logic is that most of these votes are going to Rudy since he has had a monopoly on Florida until last week when Romney began campaigning. I am not buying this at all. This is not the time to dissect the Giuliani camp’s decision to ignore all the early primaries but I firmly believe that being out of the news cycle for an entire month makes it almost impossible for him to win the Florida primary. Instead, it looks as though he will play the role of spoiler and hurt John McCain much in the same way that Fred Thompson’s presence damaged Mike Huckabee in South Carolina.

This will lead to a win for Mitt Romney in Florida that only 2 months ago would have seemed impossible. This will severely damage John McCain’s fund raising efforts and leave him weakened for Super Tuesday. Funding is not a problem for Romney since he has access to unlimited personal wealth. Furthermore, Romney has worked extremely hard, leaving no stone unturned in his quest for delegates (see Nevada and Wyoming). He also has the best infrastructure to handle the multiple campaigns for Super Tuesday. Certainly, the money advantage has helped to build the infrastructure but Romney has also made some very shrewd decisions in the past month. First, he campaigned in states that everyone else ignored. Even with his loss in Iowa, Romney was able to build an effective firewall against the “Mitt should drop out” crowd by acquiring delegates. 1 delegate in Nevada and Wyoming is as important as 1 delegate in Iowa, a fact that Romney seems to have grasped. The other candidates, with the exceptions of Giuliani and Paul, simply did not have the resources to campaign in every state. Giuliani is a victim of a flawed strategy while Paul is crazy and unorganized. Huckabee has done a nice job as an underdog but if he could not win in South Carolina, a state with a high percentage of evangelicals, then his campaign is finished. After Florida’s primary the cable news talking heads will not be able to ignore the fact that Romney will be the prohibitive favorite to win the Republican nomination.

That brings us to the race for the Democratic nomination for President. Again, at first glance, this would seem to be a toss-up since the consensus view is that Obama will win the South Carolina primary this week. Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will have almost the same number of committed delegates. I will state flatly that I was enthralled with Obama’s victory speech and view him as the candidate with the most cross cultural appeal in the race on either side. Obama might make the perfect candidate for the general election, however he has some flaws that will ultimately be his undoing against Hillary Clinton.

The results in Nevada should concern Obama for many reasons. However, the most alarming nugget from the caucus was Clinton’s incredible strength with the Hispanic and Latino populations. If you have ever spent time in Las Vegas, it is obvious that the culinary worker’s union is comprised largely of person’s of Hispanic and Latino nationalities. That union’s endorsement of Obama should have been the nail in Hillary Clinton’s coffin. Prior to the endorsement, this group favored Clinton by 65% to 35% for Obama. The exit polls from Nevada revealed that the percentages did not move at all despite the endorsement. Clearly, for reasons that I do not understand, Hillary Clinton has huge appeal to this block of voters who have now become an even more important constituency for the Democrats than African Americans.

On Super Tuesday, there will be states in play that have a significant population of Hispanic and Latino voters such as California, Arizona and New Mexico. It would be very difficult to imagine Hillary Clinton losing any of these states. Worse yet for Obama, New York and New Jersey are also Super Tuesday states and I cannot envision any scenario that would result in an Obama victory in those 2 states. In all exit polls, Obama’s advantage is clear amongst the African Americans and the young especially those between ages 18 to 24. In every other traditional Democratic category, Hillary has been the clear favorite of primary voters. The 1 notable exception occurred when more women voted for Obama than Hillary in Iowa. In retrospect, I believe that result was skewed by the caucus process and was not a good indication of how females would vote in a traditional election environment. When you look at the math, it is very hard to figure out how Obama can pull of a win. It would be a miracle.

Clinton is the establishment’s candidate. It is always an uphill battle to defeat an opponent who has the support of the party machine. See John McCain versus George W. Bush in 2000 as exhibit A. Obama’s appeal is broad, but unfortunately for him, is strong with voters who are registered as independents. In the majority of states after South Carolina, Obama will not have the advantage of drawing upon independents for support. In the end, it is always a bad idea to bet against the Clinton’s in an election. They are fighters who are well established and will do whatever it takes to win. Obama’s surprising performance in the early primary season should position him as the perfect VP choice for Hillary Clinton. Do not kid yourself for one moment that Obama would decline the invitation. A Clinton, Obama ticket would be a nightmare for the GOP but that is for another post.

The situation, on both sides, could change. Already, this election season has been filled with fun twists and turns. If I were a betting person though, I would place my money on a Romney versus Clinton general election.