Missouri is a quadrennial battleground state; almost always, whichever candidate can win the Show Me State, also wins the White House. One of the few times since World War II that this did not occur was in 2008, when McCain won the state in a squeaker over Obama.
In 2012, it is easy to anticipate that the economy will be the pre-eminent issue in Missouri. Like much of the rest of the nation, the state has high unemployment, a high poverty rate, and a high foreclosure rate. Conservatives in the state are also concerned about the mushrooming federal deficit, which has expanded greatly in the last four years. Because of the large percentage of the state’s population who are elderly, the Democrats can be expected to try to make a case for the threats to Social Security and Medicare if Romney is elected.
Missouri has one of the more interesting political demographics in the nation. It has a high percentage of African-Americans, some major cities, and a high percentage of union members. Each of these factors works to the benefit of Obama. There are not very many Hispanics residing in the state, yet. However, it also has a high percentage of evangelicals, which works to the benefit of Romney.
Missouri, as has much of the rest of the South and the Border States, has tended to become more Republican in recent times. As shown below, the GOP has won every Presidential election in this century. It has a Democratic Governor; one Senator is a Republican and one is a Democrat. The Democrat, Claire McCaskill, is up for re-election and presumably faces a difficult match-up. The Republicans must win her seat to take over the Senate.
|Recent Missouri Presidential General Election Match-ups|
Here is the current polling from Real Clear Politics. Romney currently has a 5% lead.
|2012 Presidential Polls, Missouri, General Election Match-ups|
|Polling Date||Polling Company||Mitt Romney (R)||Barack Obama (D)|
This looks like a likely win for Romney. Obama is probably only going to expend money to GOTV, not expend much on advertising.