Some of the tossup states are vital for Romney to win if he seeks to attain the presidency. On the other hand, it is difficult for Obama to cobble together an Electoral College victory if he does not win Michigan. One of Obama’s policies that have proven the most contentious was the auto bailout, which should have assured him victory here. Yet this contest remains amazingly close, and does not appear to be widening.
This state has voted consistently Democratic in the last five Presidential elections. There are a number of reasons for this. Obviously, Michigan is one of the most unionized states, which provides a ready source of Democratic volunteers. Many of the workers here are dependent on the strength of the auto industry, its labor force, and people in related industries. Many voters apparently blame Republicans for the trend of moving these jobs to foreign nations, although the main person responsible for this was the redoubtable Bill Clinton, who sold out our manufacturing sector to establish his fealty to Wall Street.
Yet Mitt Romney continues to do well in Michigan polling. One reason is because his name still carries political heft here. His father was not just a beloved governor; he was the head of American Motors during its ascendancy. Because of his high name recognition, there is less chance that the negative campaign defining Mitt will be effective. Another factor is that Michigan is one of the more highly taxed states, and many people are tired of paying high taxes with few, if any, measurable benefits.
The issues that affect this election are likely to revolve around the economy. Its unemployment rate rarely moves below 10% as the heavy industries many of its workers are trained for become less labor intensive. As its economy has stagnated, the home foreclosure rate is one of the highest in the nation.
Michigan has a Republican Governor, Rick Snyder, a Republican and a Democratic Senator; 9 House members belong to the GOP, the other 6 are Democrats.
| Recent Michigan Presidential General Election Match-ups | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Election Year | Republican | Democrat | ||
| 1996 | 39% | 52% | ||
| 2000 | 46% | 51% | ||
| 2004 | 48% | 51% | ||
| 2008 | 41% | 57% | ||
As written earlier, the Democrats have dominated in this state in recent elections. Obama’s inability to build any type of lead here has to be troubling to the Democrats.
Here is the current polling from Real Clear Politics. Obama currently has a 1.8% lead.
| 2012 Presidential Polls, Michigan, General Election Match-ups | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polling Date | Polling Company | Mitt Romney (R) | Barack Obama (D) | |
| 6/24-6/25 | NBC News/Marist | 43% | 47% | |
| 6/18 | Mitchell Research | 46% | 47% | |
| 6/18 | WeAskAmerica | 45% | 43% | |
| 6/14 | Rasmussen | 42% | 50% | |
| 6/12 | Baldoun/Foster | 46% | 47% | |
The race in the Wolverine State is one of the more interesting in the nation. It is in the middle of the region of the nation which should dominate the ad war that will develop after Labor Day. We’ll be updating these polls regularly, so stay tuned.
July 18th, 2012 at 4:53 am
With the continuing depopulation of Duh-troit, Michigan’s days as a guaranteed Democrat state are over. Romney will win MI by 5 points, easily.
July 18th, 2012 at 4:55 am
BTW, what the Dems should really be worried about is the coattail effect as Debbie Spend-It-Now faces reelection. I do not think that her seat in the Senate is all that secure and may prove to be a surprise in November for the GOP.
July 18th, 2012 at 6:23 am
Andy,
your prediction might be right, but I’m really getting apprehensive about Mitt’s lack of response to both the Bain and income tax attacks. I think perhaps he is facing intractable problems on both fronts, so they’ll never go away.
For example, how will it affect Mitt’s numbers if he releases his 09 return and it turns out he made a lot of $ but paid no income tax. I think a lot of people will be angry.
We knew during the nomination fight that, at least in this cycle, it would be dangerous to nominate a wall street investment banker. Now, we’ll see if his campaign can overcome these problems.
July 18th, 2012 at 8:32 am
A local article was probably correct when they predicted an Obama win in Michigan, but that it was close enough that Obama would have to devote unexpected resources to defend a state that is usually in the bag.
I live in Michigan and I have to admit I see very little television advertising devoted to either Romney or Obama as of yet.
Stabenow has a very comfortable lead in the polls.
Regarding the people leaving Detroit. They aren’t moving to France, most are simply relocating to the near suburbs.
July 18th, 2012 at 8:46 pm
Can’t Obama just decide that Detroit will now make chicken poop cars in solar-powered factories? Liberals have all the answers to unemployment, don’t you know.