This Presidential election, like many other recent ones, will probably be decided in the Midwest. The Republican’s chosen candidate, Mitt Romney, was selected in great part because of his presumed ability to collect support in this region. Also, we saw last week that both campaigns have already been barnstorming in Ohio.
Leans Republican – IN
Electoral Votes – 11
Strong Democratic – IL
Electoral Votes – 20
Toss Up – MI, OH, WI
Electoral Votes – 44
As shown above, it is easy to see why so much money and so much time will be expended in the Midwest by both campaigns. Other than Illinois, no state in the region is locked into either candidate. I anticipate that, for the next four months, these states will be inundated with ads from both Romney and Obama; they’ll also continue to campaign throughout the region.
An advantage Romney has is that many of the governors in these states are Republican. It should therefore be easy to get volunteers for his presidential run.
Now that we’ve looked at all of the regions and all of the states (unless I’ve accidentally left out some of the 53 states), we’ll begin looking more in depth at the states that will be contested this summer and fall.
July 9th, 2012 at 3:27 pm
MI a tossup, hmm. I’ll believe that one the day that Obama gets a real job.
July 9th, 2012 at 3:37 pm
Yeah, McCain. I may have given too much weight to Andy getting the Romney vote out.
July 9th, 2012 at 4:39 pm
According to many of the contributors on this site, this election is a Romney landslide.
Every time a state is listed as undecided or a toss-up the response is “Oh, I see it as an easy Romney victory”.
You guys kill me.
July 9th, 2012 at 8:40 pm
Yes it will be interesting for sure, Buzz. Landslides are rare in presidential elections, although of course they are possible. The wise money would be on a close election.
Obama is massively outspending Romney in swing states year to date, yet he can’t seem to push his needle over 47% in any of them. Romney will catch up in those states so we’ll just have to see what happens.
July 10th, 2012 at 4:40 am
I’d say MI will break for Romney. Given the decline of union power here, as well as the population in Duh-troit, the Democrats cannot count on MI as a solid win. Same holds true for OH and WI.