Has Barack Obama already lost his reelection bid for 2012? Was a decision late last year by the Obama campaign to write off ′working white voters′ the root cause? A story by David Paul Kuhn of Real Clear Politics seems to be suggesting that Obama cannot win due to falling support from white voters. That even if he does manage to repeat his successes with non-white voters from 2008, the game is already over. That Obama may not even win the dismally low 35% that Walter Mondale won in 1984. The only salvation, however, is that Mitt Romney has yet to capitalize on this advantage. According to Kuhn′s demographics, the ′over-under′ is 61% for Romney and 39% for Obama. Those are the percentages of the white voters either candidate needs to win.
Barack Obama was supposed to be the transformational president. Half white himself, Obama was billed as the post-racial president who would heal the divisions in America. But the exact opposite has been the case. The nation is more divided, more partisan, than ever before. Perhaps the most amusing example is how, this week, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi criticized the contempt of Congress vote against Eric Holder held by the House Judiciary Oversight Committee, setting the stage for a vote by the full House this coming week. Pelosi tried to deflect critics of Eric Holder by raising the issue of vote suppression. Yet it has been Eric Holder directing the Department of Justice to ignore any vote suppression cases where whites were the targets. Such as in the case of the New Black Panther Party intimidating white voters in Philadelphia in November, 2008. Justice Department whistle-blowers testified that orders to drop the case came from on high.
The most recent Gallup Poll shows that among white voters, Obama only has 37-38% support now, barely more than the 35% which Walter Mondale won in 1984. Other polls have Obama with even less. Mitt Romney, on the other hand, is still not doing all that great either, averaging about 53-55% support from whites in most polls. Of course, one may factor in the so-called ′Bradley Effect′ in any political poll where race is an issue. So these numbers may already be off by 4 to 5 points favoring Romney.
The demographic trends for future elections will make the white vote less significant. But that will not help Barack Obama overcome the lack of support from white voters now. Obama is also having trouble with his own base of support. He is down 4% among Black voters, down 6% amongst women, down 5 to 9 points among college graduates and post-graduates, and off 9% among the youth vote. Older voters, including the senior citizens, have Obama trailing about 6% from 2008. Not only has Obama apparently written off the ′working white′ vote, but also Catholics and other devout religious voters, too, with his position shifts on birth control and gay marriage. The bottom line in all of this is that the election is Mitt Romney′s to win, even by a landslide, if he can sell his vision for the future to America. If so, then Barack Obama may suffer the most humiliating defeat of any presidential candidate.