Two new polls, the USA Today/Gallup and CBS News/New York Times, show that Mitt Romney may very well defeat Barack Obama by a landslide this November. The other day, I wrote that Obama may have lost the election last week, partly due to his latest political miscalculation, the gay marriage issue. The new polls show that two-thirds of voters believe that Obama only changed his stance purely for political reasons. Meanwhile, efforts to smear Mitt Romney have gone nowhere, as Romney′s favorable numbers have improved. Even the alleged ′gender-gap′ with women has evaporated. When it comes to the primary issue before the nation, our economy, Romney has a double-digit lead over Obama as being the man to fix the problems.
First, let us look at the CBS News/NYTimes poll, which is always skewed in favor of Democrats, in this case, by at least 6 points. Even with this built-in bias, Romney leads Obama 46% to 43% in whom people are likely to vote for. The survey was conducted between May 11 through the 13, so the impressions are fresh. This is a 6-point shift from their same poll last month. On the gender gap, Obama fell from 49% support with women in April to 44% now, while Romney went up from 43% to 46%. Concerning bases of support, Obama lost ground, 3 points among declared Democrats and down 5 points among Independents. Romney gained one point among both Republicans and Independents. On same-sex marriages, the numbers have declined in support since last polled in February, 2012. Down from 40% to 38% in favor of marriage being legal, however those in favor of legal civil unions went up from 23% to 24%. Those believing that same-sex partners should have no legal recognition at all went up from 31% to 33%. So this issue will not help Obama.
Now, let us look at the new USA Today/Gallup Poll. Interestingly enough, 58% of those polled believe that economy will be better in 2013. Why? Perhaps because 55% think Mitt Romney will improve the economy. Only 46% think Obama can. We also see in this poll that favorable-unfavorable gap has closed between the two candidates. Romney is now at 50% favorable with just 41% unfavorable while Obama is at 52% favorable with 46% unfavorable. One last item for you ′ticket′ fans. The GOP now has a 50% to 44% lead in congressional races. In February, the poll was tied and last August, Democrats enjoyed a 7-point lead.
To wrap up these two new polls by CBS News/New York Times and USA Today/Gallup, we see that even with the built-in slant which always favors Democrats, Mitt Romney has either taken the lead or has eliminated the gap with Barack Obama. The economy is still the number one issue in the country and that favors Romney significantly. The attempts by Obama to deflect attention with lesser issues, such as gay marriage, or his campaign′s early efforts to smear Romney′s character have failed. Should this trend continue through November, Mitt Romney stands to beat Barack Obama by a landslide in 2012.