Right Pundits

Here is today’s open post thread, discuss whatever you want. To get us kicked off, here is Cracked’s top 5 pathetic groups that people think will rule the world. Here is their take on why we shouldn’t worry about the Illuminati:

But more importantly, this seems to be the ultimate product of the paranoid mind, in that depending on who you talk to, the Illuminati includes everyone. Not just governments and corporations, but also Hollywood.

So every single ideological difference you think there is between political parties, competing companies and even the makers of your favorite TV shows, is fake. In reality, they all meet behind the scenes, with perfect secrecy, with perfect cooperation, to control everything. They’re having round-table meetings in the penthouses of five-star hotels where they decide that America needs a terrorist attack this year while using their sinister connections to implant secret messages into Hannah Montana songs.

Personally I think Cracked is part of the conspiracy too. It’s a good read though.

Courtesy of Sean Hannity’s website, the top 10 items listed below are Sean’s solutions for a Republican party that is suffering from a serious branding problem. While I agree with most of his measures, there are 1 or 2 that I think need more detail and 1 or 2 that I do not agree with at all.

For what it is worth, I think Hannity is a tremendously talented broadcaster and debater. I have even heard people on the far left, such as Al Sharpton, make similar comments. There are times when I think he repeats the same talking point a little too much, but I find him to be entertaining and prefer him to the blowhard, Rush Limbaugh and an increasingly paranoid Glenn Beck.

Anyway, could Sean Hannity’s top 10 items below be a prescription for victory in November for the Republicans or is it meaningless rhetoric? I will give my opinions below the fold and invite everyone to give theirs as well.

Hannity’s Top 10 Items for Victory

1) To be the Candidate of National security:
a) Victory in Iraq
b) Fully support NSA, Patriot act, tough interrogations, keeping Gitmo open
c) A Candidate that pledges to NOT demean our military while they are fighting for their Country. eg Harry Reid: “the surge has failed”, “the war is lost”
d) Candidate that promises to ensure that our veterans can live out their lives in dignity.

2) The Candidate who pledges to oppose Appeasement:
a) The Candidate will oppose any and all efforts to negotiate with dictators of the world in places like Iran, Syria, N.Korea, Cuba, and Venezuela without “pre-conditions”

3) The Candidate Pledges to support Tax CUTS, and fiscal responsibility:
a) The American people are NOT under taxed, Government Spends too much
b) The Candidate who Pledges to ELIMINATE and VOTE AGAINST ALL Earmarks
c) The Candidate pledges to BALANCE the budget

4) The Candidate Pledges to be a supporter of “Energy Independence”
a) supports Immediate drilling in Anwar and the 48 states
b) Building new refineries
c) Begin building and using Nuclear Facilities
d) expand coal mining
e) realistic steward of the environment
While simultaneously working with private industry to develop the new energy technologies for the future, with the goal being that America becomes completely energy independent within the next 15 years.

5) The Candidate pledges to secure our borders completely within 12 months:
a) build all necessary fences
b) use all available technology to help and support agents at the border
c) train and hire agents as needed

6) Healthcare:
The Candidate will look for Free-Market solutions to the problems facing the Healthcare industry, and will vigorously oppose any efforts to “nationalize healthcare”.
a) The Candidate will fight for Individual health savings accounts, that includes “catastrophic insurance” for every American, so people can control their own healthcare choices.

7) Education:
a) The Candidate pledges to “save” American children from the failing educational system
b) The Candidate will fight to break the unholy alliance of the Democratic party and teachers unions, which at best has institutionalized mediocrity, and has failed children across the country
c) fight for “CHOICE” in education and let parents decide
d) fight for vouchers for parents

Social Security and Medicare:
a) The Candidate will “save” social security and medicare from bankruptcy.
b) Options will include “private retirement” funds so people can “control” their own destiny.

9) Judges
a) The Candidate vows to support ONLY judges who recognize that their job is to interpret the Constitution, and NOT legislate from the bench.

10) American Dream:
The Candidate accepts as their duty and responsibility to educate, inform, and remind people that with the blessings of Freedom comes a Great responsibility. That Government’s primary goal is to preserve, protect and defend our God given gift of freedom.

That Government’s do not have the ability to solve all of our problems, and to take away all of our fears and concerns. We need their pledge that we will be the candidate that promotes Individual liberty, Capitalism, a strong national defense and will support policies that encourage such…

It is our fundamental belief that limited Government, and Greater individual responsibility will insure the continued prosperity and success for future generations.

We the people who believe in the words of Ronald Reagan, that we are “the best last hope for man on this earth,” “a shining city on a hill,” and that our best days are before us if our Government will simply trust the American people.
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Copyright © 2008 Sean Hannity and MediaSpan

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Bill Richardson’s (who was Bill Clinton’s Secretary of Energy!) endorsement of Barack Obama is yet another indication of the divide that now clearly exists within the Democratic Party. James Carville’s reaction of calling Richardson a “Judas” pretty much symbolizes the maturity level in the upper echelon of today’s Democratic leaders. I can imagine that Richardson’s response was a hearty “Oh yea!”. Bill Richardson endorses Obama and the civil war rages on!

The mainstream press outlets are portraying Richardson’s decision as the end result of a torturous, soul searching process. My take is to offer a quote from Richard Millhouse Nixon, since both seem to only have a passing acquaintance with a little thing called the truth, “Poppycock!” Bill Richardson is clearly positioning himself as a candidate for Obama’s VP short-list. The following, brought to you by our good friends at the increasingly irrelevant New York Times, is Richardson’s thought process in action:

“There’s something special about this guy,�? Mr. Richardson said of Mr. Obama. “I’ve been trying to figure it out, but it’s very good.�?

Click here if you intend to waste your time reading the newspaper equivalent of the steam engine.

Wow! I can only dream of how much his brain hurts after all the suffering he has had to go through in order to conjure up that brilliant outcome. Then again, we are talking about a multi-faceted individual whose talents know no end. After all, imagine the torture when Richardson could not figure out if he was drafted by the Kansas City A’s. I can only speak for myself, but knowing whether or not you were drafted by a professional sports team is something that would be very difficult to screw up. If he were a Republican, this side of Bill Richardson would be the lead of every story from the mainstream press outlets. The New York Times simply forgot to mention that Obama received the support of an inveterate liar. I am most certain that it is just a clerical error. Click here for a rousing endorsement of Richardson’s character.

So Bill Richardson endorses Obama and the Democrats civil war rages on. The winner, once again, is Senator John McCain, the Republican nominee for President.

Think about this when you are all alone in the voting booth on November 4, 2008.

Note – Don’t blame me for this image. These pictures are all over the Internet. This trend actually started with the liberal columnist, Camille Paglia, who now writes for Salon.com. Paglia penned an article on Hillary in the early 90’s that contained a similar type of photo. It is an image that still haunts me to this day and will continue to do so until I stop breathing.

Cable news is still trying to position the primary season as a sea of confusion with no clear front-runner for either party. Of course, this supposed “uncertainty” benefits the cable networks since it creates an air of excitement that results in an increase in viewers for each network. Obviously, this leads to an increase in advertising revenue. As usual, it is a matter of dollars and cents. A closer examination into both races and it becomes evident that there are clear favorites now for both the Republican and Democratic nominees for President of The United States.

First, let’s take a look at the Republican race since there are more viable candidates on the GOP side at the moment. Mitt Romney now has to be viewed as the favorite. At first glance, this does not seem to make sense given John McCain’s victories in South Carolina and New Hampshire. These were the states that McCain put the most focus on and he won both of them. Why would McCain not be viewed as the favorite? Because he has benefited immensely from Rudy Giuliani’s disappearing act. McCain and Giuliani both court similar, although not exactly the same type of voter. They are both the Commander-In-Chief candidates, appealing to those whose primary concern is the war on terror. Rudy would have hurt McCain in both South Carolina and New Hampshire had he decided to run in lieu of making Florida his equivalent of a goal line stance.

Florida has become a do or die election for Giuliani. He has been staked out there for the better part of a month and if you believe Fred Barnes of Fox News, he will be competitive due to Florida’s liberal primary rules for early and absentee voters. Fred’s logic is that most of these votes are going to Rudy since he has had a monopoly on Florida until last week when Romney began campaigning. I am not buying this at all. This is not the time to dissect the Giuliani camp’s decision to ignore all the early primaries but I firmly believe that being out of the news cycle for an entire month makes it almost impossible for him to win the Florida primary. Instead, it looks as though he will play the role of spoiler and hurt John McCain much in the same way that Fred Thompson’s presence damaged Mike Huckabee in South Carolina.

This will lead to a win for Mitt Romney in Florida that only 2 months ago would have seemed impossible. This will severely damage John McCain’s fund raising efforts and leave him weakened for Super Tuesday. Funding is not a problem for Romney since he has access to unlimited personal wealth. Furthermore, Romney has worked extremely hard, leaving no stone unturned in his quest for delegates (see Nevada and Wyoming). He also has the best infrastructure to handle the multiple campaigns for Super Tuesday. Certainly, the money advantage has helped to build the infrastructure but Romney has also made some very shrewd decisions in the past month. First, he campaigned in states that everyone else ignored. Even with his loss in Iowa, Romney was able to build an effective firewall against the “Mitt should drop out” crowd by acquiring delegates. 1 delegate in Nevada and Wyoming is as important as 1 delegate in Iowa, a fact that Romney seems to have grasped. The other candidates, with the exceptions of Giuliani and Paul, simply did not have the resources to campaign in every state. Giuliani is a victim of a flawed strategy while Paul is crazy and unorganized. Huckabee has done a nice job as an underdog but if he could not win in South Carolina, a state with a high percentage of evangelicals, then his campaign is finished. After Florida’s primary the cable news talking heads will not be able to ignore the fact that Romney will be the prohibitive favorite to win the Republican nomination.

That brings us to the race for the Democratic nomination for President. Again, at first glance, this would seem to be a toss-up since the consensus view is that Obama will win the South Carolina primary this week. Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will have almost the same number of committed delegates. I will state flatly that I was enthralled with Obama’s victory speech and view him as the candidate with the most cross cultural appeal in the race on either side. Obama might make the perfect candidate for the general election, however he has some flaws that will ultimately be his undoing against Hillary Clinton.

The results in Nevada should concern Obama for many reasons. However, the most alarming nugget from the caucus was Clinton’s incredible strength with the Hispanic and Latino populations. If you have ever spent time in Las Vegas, it is obvious that the culinary worker’s union is comprised largely of person’s of Hispanic and Latino nationalities. That union’s endorsement of Obama should have been the nail in Hillary Clinton’s coffin. Prior to the endorsement, this group favored Clinton by 65% to 35% for Obama. The exit polls from Nevada revealed that the percentages did not move at all despite the endorsement. Clearly, for reasons that I do not understand, Hillary Clinton has huge appeal to this block of voters who have now become an even more important constituency for the Democrats than African Americans.

On Super Tuesday, there will be states in play that have a significant population of Hispanic and Latino voters such as California, Arizona and New Mexico. It would be very difficult to imagine Hillary Clinton losing any of these states. Worse yet for Obama, New York and New Jersey are also Super Tuesday states and I cannot envision any scenario that would result in an Obama victory in those 2 states. In all exit polls, Obama’s advantage is clear amongst the African Americans and the young especially those between ages 18 to 24. In every other traditional Democratic category, Hillary has been the clear favorite of primary voters. The 1 notable exception occurred when more women voted for Obama than Hillary in Iowa. In retrospect, I believe that result was skewed by the caucus process and was not a good indication of how females would vote in a traditional election environment. When you look at the math, it is very hard to figure out how Obama can pull of a win. It would be a miracle.

Clinton is the establishment’s candidate. It is always an uphill battle to defeat an opponent who has the support of the party machine. See John McCain versus George W. Bush in 2000 as exhibit A. Obama’s appeal is broad, but unfortunately for him, is strong with voters who are registered as independents. In the majority of states after South Carolina, Obama will not have the advantage of drawing upon independents for support. In the end, it is always a bad idea to bet against the Clinton’s in an election. They are fighters who are well established and will do whatever it takes to win. Obama’s surprising performance in the early primary season should position him as the perfect VP choice for Hillary Clinton. Do not kid yourself for one moment that Obama would decline the invitation. A Clinton, Obama ticket would be a nightmare for the GOP but that is for another post.

The situation, on both sides, could change. Already, this election season has been filled with fun twists and turns. If I were a betting person though, I would place my money on a Romney versus Clinton general election.

These early primaries mean nothing. Forget about Romney, McCain, Huckabee and that joke Giuliani. The truly brave and worthy in our country know and understand that Dr. Ron Paul will be our next President. Dr. Paul’s strong second place finish in the Nevada caucus PROVES that momentum is on the side of the righteous. Against either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton, it is a fact that he will win every electoral vote. Hail to our next President!

As President our glorious leader will in his 100 days of office accomplish the following:

1. We will wipe out the results of the civil war and recognize the Confederate States of America. Certainly, we can find an ancestor of Jefferson Davis who will be willing to sit as an acting President. As for African Americans who are living in the confederation – you never had the legal right to not be slaves. Get over it.

2. All support and aid to Israel will cease and desist by executive proclamation. As scholars of constitutional law, we are absolutely certain that congress does not need to be consulted on this issue. We don’t need any friends in the middle-east. Furthermore, what right does congress have to exist? We will save that issue for our second term.

3. Our first cabinet appointment will be David Duke as attorney general. Has the world ever had an individual so uniquely qualified to expense justice to such a diverse population?

4. We sincerely and desperately want to help homosexuals and all those who believe that issues of marriage are a matter of liberty (HA, HA) between 2 adults. As such we will create camps, er…special vacation resorts to help these individuals see the light. Your length of stay will be dependent upon how quickly we can help you.

5. There will be no more of our hard earned money spent on the so-called epidemic of Aids in Africa. We need that money to build our camps..er… vacation resorts. Anyway, we don’t want foreigners buying our stuff anyway so why should we care what happens to them? Not that we are hateful or anything.

6. All military institutions will be disbanded and replaced with citizen militias. Our enemies will then love us and not wish us any harm whatsoever. It is befuddling that America has not seen fit to implement this easy solution.

7. All government law enforcement agencies – FBI, CIA, ATF and so forth will be disbanded immediately as they represent a significant danger to the liberty of “true” Americans. All enforcement will henceforth be coordinated through the new “Minister of Justice”, David Duke. He is a true patriot and will be given the autonomy to dispense justice as he sees fit. Certainly, a man of such standing can be trusted.

8. All bankers or as we will now refer to them, “shylocks” will be relocated to northern Maine and will not be allowed access to any instrument that could possibly allow them to exploit our citizens. There will be no phones, computers or calculators in this enclave. Please do not let this upset you. It will only be temporary, maybe 40 or so years. Then it won’t be necessary anymore.

9. Allow me to introduce my Vice-President – Dennis Kucinich!

10. Any resemblance to Lyndon LaRouche is merely coincidental.

How could anyone not want the glorious Dr. Ron Paul as our next President?

Note – The above is intended for amusement purposes only and does not purport to be Dr. Paul’s true positions. At least, I hope they are not his true positions. Some of the above are extrapolations from a newsletter that was written under his name from the 1990’s. Paul states that he was not aware of what was written in his newsletter. That is the most interesting position I have seen politican take since President Clinton lectured opposing counsel on the definition of the word “is”. The rest is humor and hyperbole. I type this disclaimer because I know it is very easy to get the pauliacs enraged. Gang – this is the big time. You have to learn how to take the heavy hits.

Tomorrow night I will be live blogging from 8 PM EST until the candidates declare victory or wallow in their misery. I will use this thread. Like Iowa, I will put myself through the pain of watching the various cable outlets and offering real time observations. It is my service to “the people”. Here are the questions that intrique me heading into this contest:

Will anyone be able to stop the sudden Barack Obama earthquake?

Will Hillary Clinton’s tears from today result in any additional votes or will New Hampshire voters feel as though they are being blatantly manipulated?

Will John McCain retain his lead and if so can Mitt Romney keep it close in order to preserve his viability?

Can Rudy Giuliani keep his “campaign” on life support?

Will Huckabee get a bump in New Hampshire as a result of his victory in Iowa? Pre-Iowa, he was polling at approximately 10%. In my opinion only, he needs 15% or more of the vote to prove that Iowa was not his high water mark.

It will be a fun night. I look forward to hearing from you. If you can’t be nice, at least try to be funny.

***Update*** 7:30 PM EST

The same rules will apply for tonight’s festivities as they did in Iowa. Do not expect perfect spelling or grammar. I’ll try to keep it light. If you want in-depth (i.e., really boring) analysis go to NRO.com. Just make certain that you bring your No-Dose. Although the polls have not closed, it appears as though Obama is going to win in a blow out and Romney just may squeak by with a slim victory. I’ll watch all 3 cable news channels and try to make sense of what they have to say. I am sure that it will be brilliant. MSNBC’s hate america coverage does not begin until 9 PM EST, so there will be no reporting from Chrissy Matthews or Kommunist Olbermann until that time. I refuse to watch Countdown on general principle.

***Update*** 7:40 PM EST

The first results are in and McCain has a 10% lead while Clinton has a 2% lead. Fred Thomspon informed Shep that he is traveling to warmer states. I thought he was in Brazil. Fred claims he had a great debate that contradicts what Shep said to him. Shockingly, shockingly, he does not expect to win New Hampshire. SC is his fire wall. Good luck with that. I guess since Fred has been “down south” he has not had access to the recent polls for South Carolina.

***Update*** 7:48 PM EST

Shep is reviewing Mitt’s life story. It may not take me very long to throw up tonight.

***Update*** 7:59 PM EST

Cameron claims that the McCain camp is optimistic. Hemmer also states that Romney is optimistic. Goler says that the Huckabee crowd is optimistic. It is too bad that 7:59 will turn into 8:59 real fast. Will Fox call it for Obama at 8:01PM? Why does Britt Hume’s facial expression make it look like he has a permanent case of hemorriods? Where are the blonde bombshells?

Steve Brown reports that the Clinton team thinks the high turnout is good. Logic is not prevailing at this time in the Clinton camp.

***Update*** 8:01 PM EST

Fox exit polling has both McCain and Obama winning with a 5% margin. That would be great news for McCain but not so great for Obama who was now expected to win by double digits. Fred says it is OK for Hillary to claim to be the come back kid.

CNN has McCain at 37% and Romney with 28%. Rudy is in 4th place. That is bad news. God, how can anyone watch Wolf Blitzer?

***Update*** 8:06 PM EST

I can not understand anything that Michael Barone is saying. Help!! 639 people have actually voted for Dennis Kucinich. Did he promise every single one of them a free dinner? Although it is triple what Fred has received so far. Blonde Bombshell alert! Megyn Kelly. Now I feel better. She also makes more sense than Michael Barone who reminds me of a geology professor. Again, Obama kick’s butt with the youth and beats Hillary for the woman’s vote. Sounds just like Iowa so far. McCain Wins!!!!!! I am very surprised that the GOP race has been called so soon. Romney is in trouble unless he can lose by 3% or less. Kristol claims McCain’s support for the war is the reason for his victory. That is a neo-con stretch if I ever heard one. Fred agrees with Bill so maybe I am wrong.

***Update*** 8:18 PM EST

MSNBC provides it’s viewers with the scoop that Romney’s campaign is dissapointed. What an awesome job of providing in depth analysis. KO blaims Bill O’Reilly. Chriss Matthews prays for uncertaintly on the GOP side. Brokaw and Russert delight in Romney’s troubles. Scarborough repeats the GOP is wide open comment. A party on disarray. I guess life is all peachy for the Democrats. Did they listen to Bill Clinton today? They now claim that the surge is not working. Here comes the hate america rhetoric. Joe ties McCain to Ted Kennedy which is fair. I have to change the channel before I break my $2000 HDTV.

Back to Fox and and Mark McKinnon desperately needs to get rid of his hat. Hillary still has a 5% lead with 14% in. Could an upset be possible? Chris Wallace just disses McKinnon on his hat. My respect for him has just risen.

***Update*** 8:32 PM EST

One of the Fox blonde bomshells reports that Roy Spence will be joining the Hillary team. Here comes scorched earth. Maybe a 527 will swiftboat Obama. It now looks like Hillary is going to keep this much closer than expected. I would like to know the geography of the precincts reporting. John Edwards is toast. Major Garrett tells us that the Obama team tells them that Hillary can not spin a close loss as good news. She is up by 2000 in the raw vote count. Obama needs to learn that the expectations game is based on what you were expected to do yesterday, not 3 weeks ago. Will there be accusations of “irregularities”?

***Update*** 8:40 PM EST

CNN projects that John Edward’s will finish 3rd. I am not kidding. How do they do it? Ralph Reed and Bill Bennett on the same panel. CNN probably thinks that they are the true representatives of all Republicans. Did Hillary’s tears really work? Mitt and Huck make the standard concession phone call to McCain according to Mr. excitement, Wolf Blitzer. He looks thrilled that Hillary is winning so far. I have not seen him this happy since the mid-terms.

Over at Fox, Republicans like McCain. I like Megyn Kelly. Hillary’s lead has actually increased with 20% in. Fred likes Megyn Kelly as well. 12% for Huckabee is being spun as a win. He was polling at 10% on Saturday. I think 15% would be a win. 12 looks like a push to me. Romney is going to speak soon and tell us why getting his butt kicked is A OK.

Fox did not have the audio for Romney. Over at MSNBC, Romney tells everyone he is proud of his silver medal. I am tired to the references to the olympics. Enough already. He is graceful in defeat and congratulates McCain. I wish he had the Romney twins on stage. They really know New Hampshire and the state knows him and does not…well… like him very much. I will get sick if Hillary wins tonight. Romney sounds like a democrat now. Is this a new direction for him? The new Romney catch phrase is “but they haven’t”. I have and the phrase sucks. A 6% Clinton lead now!

***Update*** 9:12 PM EST

McCain is back! You do have to hand it to him for hanging in there when it appeared as though he was finished in July when his campaign ran out of money. Why did the polls yesterday indicate that Obama would win by double digits and that Romney just might catch McCain when it looks like the opposite may happen? The polling firms once again should hang their head’s in shame. Still, I don’t think McCain looks healthy. Check out the left side of his face. Hillary is still up by 4% and Fox’s commentators are now talking about a Hillary or Obama victory. We all must learn, as we have before, that you can never count out a Clinton in an election. McCain pretty much gives his stump speech. It is effective but not stirring like Obama’s was in Iowa.

***Update*** 9:25 PM EST

The fortune of fate is indeed fickle. It looks as though Hillary is going to keep it close, at the very least. Britt states that Huckabee is the first candidate that he heard make a victory speech afte receiving 12% of the vote. The hate american crowd loves Howard Dean. No real surprise. The panel on MSNBC is really, really bad. Has the world not had enough of Howard Fineman.

On CNN, they report that Hillary is winning big with poor people. I can believe that considering her platform is too basically create a welfare state. What if she actually wins? I can only hope that the precincts in the college towns have not reported their results yet. Candy Crowley is on – that necessitates a channel change. Fox’s new exit poll predicts a Clinton victory. It appears as though her campaign is alive. Kristol reports that a New Hampshire insider is betting on a Clinton win. It is an understatement to say that this is a shock. Thanks Rasmussen, Zogby, ARG and the rest of the polling firms. They should all go out of business.

Obama’s campaign must be in agony. Major Garrett is reporting from Obama’s HQ and it sounds very quiet.

***Update*** 9:47 PM EST

Ann Lewis from the Hillary campaign is thrilled with the results. I hate Ann Lewis. Martha McCallan, a Fox blonde bombshell tells us that Townhall says that the grownups came out to vote. The comeback girl speech is being prepared at this moment. 54% of the vote in and Hillary still has a 2% lead with a 3000 voter advantage. According to Martha, Romney is going on a “truth” tour. Huh? Obama’s camp is cloistered trying to figure out what the hell went wrong. If Hillary wins, then she is the front runner. Britt Hume seems to be having problems with this concept. Kristol is in denial on the topic just like he was on Iraq for 3 years. Nina Easton is cute. I suggest Courtney Friel as a future panel member. 54% of the vote in and the results are no better for Obama.

Wes Clark on MSNBC. Well, that is enough for MSNBC. Juan Williams wants to talk hardball politics. He does not seem to like Obama very much. I wonder what his history is with the Clintons? Rudy’s campaign commercial just came on and it does nothing for me. You better WIN Florida Rudy or you are finished.

***Update*** 10:06 PM EST

Fox, CNN and MSNBC may not have the guts to make the call but I will – Hillary Clinton wins the New Hampshire primary!!! She now vaults into front runner status and Obama is set up as the VP choice. We were almost spared from a Clinton fall campaign. It is apparent that even if Clinton loses, which looks less and less likely, she can spin this as a huge victory. Contrary to what I heard earlier, Clinton did very well with women especially single women. I wonder if many of the college students were too busy getting drunk to go vote. Chris Matthews and KO are spouting their usual nonsense. Somehow, the USA is still sexist even though the front runner for the NH primary is a woman.

***Update*** 10:13 PM EST

Pat Buchanan (of all people) has the line of the night on MSNBC – “We had cannonized Obama and had him born in Bethlehem”. Some Obama supporting blog is blaming Matthews for Obama’s failure. I am not sure that I understand the logic but Matthews appears to be thrilled. Once again, Mrs. Edwards fronts for her husband. She looks good and healthy. Hopefully, it can stay that way. Unfortunately, John Edwards will be stepping to the microphone shortly to “cheer” us up. I could comment on what he has to say but why bother?

***Update*** 10:19 PM EST

Ok, I lied. I feel compelled to inform everyone that Edwards just communicated to the world that he only has 48 more states to lose. Now he is on to his depressing stories. If I listen to him anymore, I will need to call a shrink.

***Update*** 10:33 PM EST

From Fox News – AP calls the primary for Hillary. Fox is not ready to at the moment but NBC is now calling Clinton the winner. I can’t watch her speech tonight. That is just too much pain for me. My hat if off to all of the polling firms who had Obama winning by double digits yesterday. It is official – you are stealing money. Russert is jubilant! New Hampshire, as is their norm, has contradicted Iowa. I must say that was what Hillary predicted even though I don’t think the Clinton’s even thought they could win. Fox still won’t make the official call although the panel seems to think it is a fait accompli. I expect their call any second now. Kristol tries to downplay the Hillary win. He is wrong. It is a huge victory. He credits her pretending to cry that attracted the women voters. I guess we will be flooded with her water works from this point forward.

***Update*** 10:45 PM EST

OK, I am going to detail a quick winners and losers list. I could stay up and listen to Hillary and Obama’s speeches but we basically know what they are going to say, so why bother. Fox finally calls it for Clinton and Obama is ready to speak. Obama congratulates Hillary (yes, I am commenting on his speech) and tries to retroactively reset expectations. He then goes on to give the same basic speech as in Iowa.

Winners

Hillary Clinton – Even if the emotion was intentional, it seems to have worked. Hillary has proven that she can turn out the Democratic base especially when times are tough.

Bill Clinton – We all (including me) wrote him off as yesterday’s news. Again, we all need to learn for the upteenth time that the Clintons can never be counted out in an election.

John McCain – He had to win to keep his campaign alive. He now has a little time to fill up his bank account. Still, I think it is early to call him a front-runner. As far as I can see, the GOP still does not have a front-runner.

Losers

The polling firms – Rasmussen, Gallup, Zogby, Mason-Dixon and the rest. Two words – YOU STINK. I think that sums things up nicely.

Barack Obama – He got a little cocky and assumed victory. Tonight he learned that looking past the Clinton’s will get you spanked. Hillary is now the front runner.

John Edwards – He is finished. Edwards is the only one who does not seem to realize that his war is over.

Mitt Romney – The strategy to focus on Iowa and New Hampshire did not go so well, now did it? Still, he is not finished. The GOP is in disarray at the moment.

Rudy Guliani – I can agree with skipping Iowa which is not a good state for Rudy. However, the decision to not campaign hard in New Hampshire may prove to be fatal to his chances. He wins Florida or else he is done. A close second might as well be 20th.

The Cable News Networks – The coverage was flat. It looks like everyone was still hung over from Iowa.

Too Close to Call

Mike Huckabee – Contrary to what I heard tonight on Fox, Huckabee was polling at approximately 10% in New Hampshire before the Iowa Caucus. I really thought he needed 15% to be a winner. Still, he can’t be labeled a loser with a 3rd place finish in a state where he spent very little time.

***Update*** 11:03 PM EST

One last update before I sign off for the evening. It is disgusting to me how Frank Luntz is trying to rewrite history although I agree that the independents broke for McCain in the end. Frank, stop blaming everyone else and look in the mirror. Hillary is about to speak. I know that I have long been predicting a Hillary presidency. Please don’t mistake that. I really detest her. OK, I just can’t watch. It is pure agony.

First things first – there needs to be a rule adopted by the on-line community which governs a person’s (or poster’s, if you prefer) final prediction in regards to political contests. All predictions should be final at least 48 hours prior to any election. Ok – I’ll stop whining now.

Before moving forward, I must reiterate how impressed I was with Barack Obama’s victory speech and how Hillary’s made me literally sick to my stomach. Bear in mind that I did not agree with at least 70% of what Obama said last night. No matter – I was moved. In contrast, Hillary came off as shrill and nasty because she is basically, well – shrill and nasty.

Without further ado, here are my final (yes, final – that means no changes an hour before the voting begins. Sorry, I will really stop whining this time.) New Hampshire primary predictions followed up by some analysis all of which could prove to be wildly inaccurate.

Republicans

John McCain 35%
Mitt Romney 27%
Mike Huckabee 16%
Rudy Giuliani 10%
Ron Paul 9%
Fred Thompson 2%
Somebody Else

Democrats

Barack Obama 38%
Hillary Clinton 31%
John Edwards 18%
Bill Richardson 6%
Dennis Kucinich 4%
Somebody Else

The main beneficiary of the results in Iowa for the GOP was not Mike Huckabee, although winning cannot hurt a person. Clearly it was John McCain. His campaign – terminally underfunded, desperately needed someone to land a blow against Mitt Romney. Mission accomplished ala the man from Hope, Arkansas. Why do you think John McCain was grinning like the cat that ate the canary on every cable news show in existence? He pulled off a miracle and essentially won an election that he did not even compete in. McCain is smart enough to understand that Huckabee is no threat to him in New Hampshire. Frankly, 3 months ago who would have expected Mike Huckabee to be the person to provide John McCain with that gift?

Huckabee will get a bump going into New Hampshire but the environment is not as friendly to him as it was in Iowa. The people of New Hampshire do not wear their religion on their sleeves. They are more stoic by nature. Still, Huckabee is a likeable guy and he will take some votes that would have gone to Romney, Rudy and Thompson. He does not hurt McCain in the least in New Hampshire. It is almost as if McCain is campaigning in his home state. The voters will remember and reward him for all of the time and effort McCain has put forth in the state, not only in 2008 but in 2000 as well. His maverick streak plays very well to this crowd especially since independents are free to vote for either a Republican or Democrat.

Mitt Romney is in big trouble. Quite honestly, it is not all his fault. What the cable news network’s and main stream press outlets won’t say today – but I will – is that Romney was hurt due to being a Mormon. The evangelicals were desperate to find anyone who could claim to be a conservative who was not Romney. In the end, who better than an actual minister even if he holds some views that the religious right would normally distain? Romney is the victim of religious prejudice. There, I said it. However, he will lose to McCain for entirely different reasons in New Hampshire.

I already discussed McCain’s New Hampshire credentials above so I will focus on a brilliant tactic employed by McCain that has put Romney in a difficult position. If you were a candidate with limited resources competing against a candidate with unlimited resources, what would you do? Of course, you would look for ways to get free publicity. In reality, McCain’s consistent and aggressive assertions that Romney was engaging in negative advertising with attack ads was an attack ad in of itself!

The difference is that McCain did not have to pay a dime for his adds while Romney spent significant monies and looked bad at the same time. I saw some of Romney’s commercials and they were hard hitting but were not out of line. We are not talking about a Willie Horton hit piece. Now, Romney finds himself boxed in between 2 competing forces – his need to draw a contrast between himself and McCain and his desire to not look like just another political hack. His campaign will make it or break it on his ability to walk this fence. Romney is a skilled politician, but not quite that good. McCain wins this going away and Romney nears oblivion.

Huckabee will make some inroads and his performance will prove to be enough to make him viable in South Carolina. That will be the state where the love fest between Huckabee and McCain ends in nasty fashion. As for Rudy, it is 24 days until the Florida primary. 25 days from now we will know for certain whether he is still viable. It does not look good for Rudy. Fred is history although he could really put the knife into Romney in South Carolina. Thompson is the 21st century version of a dixiecrat and like Strom Thurmond his appeal will be limited to the same states as Thurmond’s. Actually, it would help Huckabee, McCain and Rudy if Thompson hangs around for a while.

On the Democratic side, the situation is much more clear cut. Obama, at the moment anyway, is the rock star ala John F. Kennedy in 1960 while Hillary assumes the role of Richard Nixon. Just like Nixon, it would be pure folly to underestimate Hillary Clinton’s political skills. The question is can she damage Obama without hurting herself? Will her new willingness to answer questions seem like just another political ploy or will it help her regain the momentum she lost in Iowa. I don’t think she can win in New Hampshire. The speeches each candidate made on Thursday night ensured that the Obama express will roll right through New Hampshire. The independents are going to break hard for Obama. Already, the Clinton team and her various proxies in the media are trying to spin that a Hillary loss that is not a landslide will, in the end, be a win. This is out of the Bill Clinton 1992 playbook. Hillary is not Bill and this is not 1992. Still Hillary has a strong national organization and most states do not allow independents to choose a party to vote for in a primary. Watch as the Clinton team goes nuclear on Obama. There may not be enough time for the attacks to take hold, at least in New Hampshire. Clinton needs to hit Obama hard in the debates this weekend while Obama needs to prove that he can handle himself under fire. This may work to Obama’s advantage because to quote Dick Morris, “It is preferrable to attack from a defensive position”.

Also, Obama may be exhibiting a little too much confidence that borders on cockiness. His statement that if he wins New Hampshire he will win the Presidency is pre-mature and could come back to haunt him in some significant states down the road. Hillary is far from finished even if she loses in New Hampshire. As for Paxil John Edwards, he is finished. This is now a war between 2 competing super powers with Obama as the USA and Hillary as the Soviet Union. John Edwards plays the role of Sweden in this contest. He is not bad to look at but is not relevant.

If Iowa taught us anything (OK taught me), it is that anything is possible. Now man or woman up and make your predictions early.